CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Hofstra-Drexel, 2 Other Thursday Games
Hofstra Pride head coach Joe Mihalich. Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are betting three college basketball games on Thursday, headlined by Hofstra-Drexel (7 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also getting down on App State-UL Monroe (8 p.m. ET) and Omaha-Oral Roberts (8:30 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys kept the good times rolling on Wednesday, cashing the Tennessee-Ole Miss under and the Villanova spread en route to another 2-1 night. This is the best time of year for college hoops bettors. There are tons of games to get down every night leading up to the ultimate prize: March Madness.
After analyzing Thursday’s massive 61-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Hofstra @ Drexel
7 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 161 to 158.5)
Casual bettors don’t know which way to go with this CAA over/under.
Average Joes sees two high-scoring teams (Hofstra 84.17 PPG and Drexel 76.59 PPG) and think easy over. But they also see a high total that gives them anxiety.
Not the sharps. They’ve taken a clear side.
This total opened at 161. Over/Under bets are split right down the middle, yet the total has fallen to 158.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed three separate steam and reverse line moves on the Under, with wiseguys hammering the Under 161.5, Under 161 and Under 160. The under is getting only 50% of bets but 78% of dollars — further evidence of wiseguy support.
This “high total under” spot has been killer for wiseguys all season. According to Bet Labs, when the total is 155 or higher and falls at least one point, the under is 57-23 (71.3%) this season.
Appalachian State @ UL Monroe
8 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 159 to 156.5)
Sometimes betting percentages can be deceiving.
Yes, they’re accurate. But they aren’t always black and white. There are shades of gray, especially in low-bet games.
The total opened at a high 159. Currently 85% of bets and 90% of dollars are taking the under. On the surface, this looks like both a “public” and “sharp” under.
However, we’ve tracked only 341 bets on the game. This means that there is no “public” when it comes to this under-the-radar matchup. In fact, casual bettors probably don’t even know it exists.
As a result, it’s clear that this is a purely sharp play from respected players who have an edge.
We also noticed a pair of steam and reverse line moves on the Under, with sharps crushing the Under 160 on two separate occasions.
Omaha @ Oral Roberts
8:30 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 154.5 to 152)
The betting public gravitates toward big games, especially when they feature popular teams and are nationally televised. But sharps could care less how big or small a game is. If the value is there, they pounce. You don’t need to watch a game in order to bet on it.
This obscure Summit matchup is a perfect example.
As soon as the total opened, sharps immediately hammered the Under 154.5, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves. Later on, wiseguys hit the Under 153. This influx of big money from respected players created big liability for the books, forcing them to drop the total down to 152.
The under also enjoys a massive smart money discrepancy — only 61% of bets are on the under, but it accounts for more than 90% of dollars.