CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Marquette-Villanova, 2 Other Wednesday Games
Villanova Wildcats head coach Jay Wright (left) and forward Brandon Slater (3). Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are getting down on three college basketball games on Wednesday, headlined by Marquette-Villanova (9 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1).
- Sharps are also betting Tennessee-Mississippi (7 p.m. ET on SEC Network) and Louisville-Boston College (9 p.m. ET on ESPN CE).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys continued their hot streak on Tuesday, cashing the Saint Louis spread and Texas A&M-LSU under en route to a 2-1 night. Whether sharps are on a heater or getting taken to the woodshed, the blueprint never changes.
Be fearless but disciplined. Bet numbers, not teams. Identify value, maximize your edge and get down. Wash, rinse and repeat.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Tennessee at Mississippi
7 p.m. ET | SEC Network
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 149.5 to 145.5)
In one of the most heavily bet games of the night, pros and Joes (casual bettors who bet for fun) seem to be on the same page when it comes to this SEC over/under.
The total opened at 149.5. Currently 65% of bets and 92% of dollars are taking the under, indicating moderate public support but also heavy smart money from big players.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed sharps hammering the Under on two separate occasions. Wiseguys crushed the Under 148.5 and then hit the Under 148, triggering a pair of steam moves that forced oddsmakers to drop the total all the way down to 145.5.
This spot has been particularly profitable for unders. According to Bet Labs, when two “good shooting” teams go head-to-head (45% field-goal percentage or better), the under has produced +193.39 units won since 2005.
Louisville @ Boston College
9 p.m. ET | ESPN CE
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 137.5 to 141.5)
Sharps normally gravitate to unders. They know that the public loves betting overs because they want to cash a high-scoring, entertaining game. As a result, the oddsmakers will shade the lines toward the over, forcing recreational bettors to take an overpriced number.
However, if sharps see value on an over, they won’t hesitate to get down.
This ACC over is a perfect example.
The total opened at 137.5. More than 80% of bets and dollars are pounding the over. This overload of lopsided action, combined with a plethora of sharp Bet Signals on the over, caused the line to spike all the way to 141.5.
We’ve seen wiseguys hammer the Over 138, Over 139 (twice) and then come back on the Over 140.5. The fact that sharps kept pounding the over despite the line rising and getting worse indicates supreme wiseguy confidence.
Marquette @ Villanova
9 p.m. ET | Fox Sports 1
Sharp angle: Villanova (moved from -3.5 to -5)
Sharps and squares are on completely opposite sides of this late night Big East showdown.
Marquette boasts a stellar 23-4 record and is ranked 10th overall. Meanwhile, Nova (20-8) is unranked and has lost three in a row.
So why would the oddsmakers open Nova as the favorite? If it looks too good to be true, it almost always is.
Nova opened at -3.5 and the public is grabbing the points as fast as they can. However, the line has moved further toward the Wildcats (-3.5 to -5, some books have even reached -5.5).
The books aren’t stupid. They’re not in the business of handing out free points so recreational bettors have a better shot at covering.
This sharp reverse line movement was caused by wiseguys loading up on the Cats, forcing books to adjust the line further toward the home favorites despite the public pounding the road dogs.
Jay Wright’s crew is getting only 39% of bets but 58% of dollars — further evidence of sharp wagers fading the trendy dogs.