CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Maryland-Nebraska, 2 Other Wednesday Games
Nebraska Cornhuskers forward Isaiah Roby. Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are betting three college basketball games on Wednesday night, headlined by Maryland-Nebraska (7 p.m. ET on BTN).
- Sharps are also betting Texas A&M-Mississippi (7 p.m. ET on SEC Network) and Creighton-Villanova (8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
With the football season over, college basketball officially takes center stage for the wiseguys. Sharps love this time of year. They know that their contrarian edge increases because casual football bettors are now transitioning to college hoops.
With recreational bettors flooding the market, the ticket counts skyrocket, causing contrarian value to spike.
After analyzing Wednesday’s stacked 48-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games that pros are targeting, with start times of 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. ET.
>> All data as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Maryland @ Nebraska
7 p.m. ET | BTN
Sharp angle: Nebraska (moved from -1 to -2.5)
Nebraska is arguably the sharpest play of the night for the wiseguys.
On the surface, it looks like a massive mismatch. Maryland boasts an impressive 17-6 record and is ranked 24th overall. Meanwhile, the unranked Cornhuskers are 13-9 and have lost five straight. Terps all day, right?
This game opened with Nebraska listed as a 1-point home favorite. Nearly 80% of bets are grabbing Maryland, however, the line has moved further toward Nebraska (-1 to -2.5).
This is a classic case of reverse line movement and a dead giveaway that the wiseguys are fading the trendy dog.
Nebraska also finds itself in a profitable historical spot, as it matches the top Bet Labs PRO system Fade the Public in Big Conferences (57% ATS since 2005).
Texas A&M at Mississippi
7 p.m. ET | SEC Network
Sharp angle: Texas A&M (line stayed at +9.5)
Casual bettors bet based on gut instinct and bias, usually gravitating toward home teams, favorites and teams with better records.
As a result, it’s no surprise that recreational players are laying the points with Mississippi (14-7) at home against Texas A&M (8-12).
Not the wiseguys. They bet based on value and numbers.
Ole Miss opened as a 9.5-point favorite. Despite receiving nearly 70% of bets, the line hasn’t moved in its favor.
This line freeze indicates liability on Texas A&M, with books reluctant to hand out even an extra half-point to sharps backing the road dog.
The Aggies are receiving only 33% of bets but 80% of dollars. This massive sharp money discrepancy makes them a match for the Bet Labs PRO system Money Disparity Causes Line Move (56.8% ATS since 2005).
Creighton @ Villanova
8 p.m. ET | CBS Sports Network
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 151.5 to 151)
When it comes to over/unders, one big mistake new bettors make is simply adding up the number of points each team averages on offense and then comparing it to the total. If it’s higher, take the over. If it’s lower, take the under.
Seasoned wiseguys know that it’s not that simple.
Creighton enters this Big East showdown averaging 82.36 points per game, while Villanova averages 76.77. Add them up and you get 158.8, which is nearly eight points higher than the total in this game. Hammer that over!
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed two big steam moves on the Under, without a single conflicting over play (or buyback).