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CBB Sharp Report: Wiseguys Betting Pepperdine-Gonzaga, 2 Other Thursday Games

Feb 21, 2019 2:00 PM EST
Credit:

Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few. Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

  • Wiseguys are betting three college basketball games on Thursday, headlined by Michigan-Minnesota (7 p.m. ET on ESPN).
  • Sharps are also getting down on Eastern Illinois-Belmont (8 p.m. ET on ESPN+) and Pepperdine-Gonzaga (9 p.m. ET on Root Sports NW).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys stacked bigly last night, cashing all three of their Wednesday plays (Xavier spread, Creighton/DePaul Under and UNC/Duke Under). Sharps will look to stay hot, but this doesn’t mean that they get cocky and double down tonight.

Whether they pop bottles or get taken to the woodshed, the blueprint never changes. Flat betting. Grinders with Blinders. Always.

After analyzing Thursday’s stacked 56-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors, with start times of 7 p.m., 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. ET.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Michigan @ Minnesota

7 p.m. ET | ESPN

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 131.5 to 133)

Casual bettors love sweating overs. After all, it’s just no fun to root for a low-scoring, boring game. Average Joes want to see back-and-forth action with lots of points and then cash in the end.

On the rare occasion that the public loads up on an under, it creates unique contrarian value for wiseguys to go the other way.

In the most heavily bet game of the night, 68% of bets are taking the Michigan-Minnesota under. However, the line has risen from 131.5 to 133. Why would the books raise the total to make it easier for public under backers to cash?

Because they got hit with smart money from pro bettors, forcing them to adjust the total upward despite the lopsided under betting.

According to our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked two separate steam moves on the Over, with sharps banging the Over 132 and then coming back again on the Over 133.

This raised the total up to 134 before buyback hit the market and settled the line back to 133.

Eastern Illinois @ Belmont

8 p.m. ET | ESPN+