CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting St. Joseph’s-Davidson, 2 Other Friday Games
Saint Joseph’s Hawks forward Taylor Funk. Credit: Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are betting three college basketball games on Friday, headlined by St. Joseph's-Davidson (7 p.m. ET on ESPN2).
- Sharps are also getting down on Fairfield-Canisius (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+) and Troy-Georgia Southern (9 p.m. ET on ESPN2).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how the pros are betting each game.
With the NBA All-Star break upon us, recreational and pro bettors alike will be laser-focused on college hoops for the next few days. This is music to the ears of sharp bettors, as an influx of public money will flood the market, leading to increased contrarian value on dogs, road teams and unders.
After analyzing Friday’s 14-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors, with start times of 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
St. Joseph’s @ Davidson
7 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Sharp angle: St. Joseph’s (moved from +11 to +10)
We’re seeing a classic Pros vs. Joes disagreement with this Atlantic 10 spread.
Davidson leads the conference with an impressive 18-6 record. Plus, it is a favorite at home. As a result, recreational bettors are rushing to the window to pound the Wildcats against sub-.500 St. Joseph’s (11-14).
Not the value-minded sharps. Once again, they’re buying low, selling high and zigging while the public zags.
This line opened at Davidson -11. Currently 69% of bets are laying the points, yet the line has moved a full point toward St. Joe’s. This reverse line movement was caused by an influx of smart money coming in on the road dog.
Fairfield @ Canisius
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Sharp angle: Fairfield (moved from +5 to +3.5)
Death, taxes and if it looks too good to be true, it probably is.
Canisius (11-13) is at home laying a short spread against 7-18 Fairfield. On paper, this looks like an easy Canisius cover. But games aren’t played on paper.
This MAAC spread opened at Canisius -5. Despite receiving nearly 70% of bets, the home favorite has fallen to -3.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for public players backing the favorite?
Because they got hit with an overload of sharp money on the road dog.
Fairfield is getting only 34% of bets but 59% of dollars, indicating heavy wiseguy support.
Troy @ Georgia Southern
9 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 161 to 157.5)
Sharps and squares (casual bettors who bet for fun) are largely on the same page with this Sun Belt over/under.
The total opened at 161. Currently 66% of bets are taking the Under, but it also accounts for 80% of dollars. This bets vs. dollars split indicates moderately high public support but also heavy smart money from respected players.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed a pair of steam moves on the Under. As soon as the line opened, wiseguys got down hard on Under 161. Then they came back and hit the Under 157.5.
The fact that the line fell but wiseguys still got down indicates elevated confidence in a lower-scoring game. We haven’t seen a single conflicting Over move (or buyback).
This “high under” spot has been incredibly profitable this season. When the total is 150 or higher and the line falls at least a half-point, the under has gone 119-89 (57%). When the total is 155 or higher and falls at least one point the under is even better: 51-18 (73.9%).