Conference Tournament Betting Tip: Bet Unders in High Total Games

Conference tournaments are in full swing and bettors are getting their first taste of March Madness.

Looking at Wednesday’s slate, what jumped out to me when handicapping all the action were the games with high over/unders.

• Montana State vs. Idaho (4:30 p.m. ET): over/under 153.5
• UCLA vs. Stanford (9 p.m. ET, PAC12): over/under 151.5
• St. John’s vs. DePaul (9:30 p.m. ET, FS1): over/under 153.5
• Marshall vs. Rice (10 p.m. ET, ESPN+): over/under 163

These four conference tournament games have over/unders of more than 150 points. My reaction was to bet the under, since in my mind it's easier for an under to hit in a game when more points are expected to be scored. But before placing a wager, I wanted to determine if my hunch was correct.

Using Bet Labs, I found that the under in postseason conference games have gone 1,829-1,709-50 (51.7%) since 2005. Increased familiarity amongst teams in conference matchups tends to lead to lower scoring outcomes as the data shows, but it’s not enough to make it profitable to wager on every under in conference tournaments.

However, we are not interested in betting on the under in all games, just those with high totals. Since 2005, in conference tournament games the under has gone 206-168-10 (55.1%) if the over/under is 150 or more points.

But we can improve this system even further.

You should target conference tournament games played on neutral courts. The unfamiliar surroundings, the different sightlines and each team playing a road game promotes a low scoring environment.

Since 2005, betting the under in high-total conference tournament games that are played on a neutral court have gone 175-131-8 (57.2%). This betting strategy has been profitable in nine of the past 14 postseasons and a $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,196 following this system.

All four games listed above are a match for this betting strategy.