Davidson vs. VCU Atlantic-10 Tournament Odds & Pick: Betting Value on Saturday’s Over/Under
Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images. Pictured: Nah’Shon Hyland.
- The Atlantic 10 Tournament continues on Saturday night when the Davidson Wildcats take on the VCU Rams in a semifinal matchup.
- The Rams need to string together some impressive performances for a shot at making the NCAA Tournament, and Saturday's game provides just that.
- Check out BJ Cunningham's full betting preview complete with updated odds and a pick based on his analysis below.
Davidson vs. VCU Odds
Davidson and VCU look to keep their hopes of making the NCAA Tournament alive tonight in the Atlantic 10 Tournament semifinals.
Davidson blew out George Mason on Friday night, 99-67, and looks fantastic offensively. The Wildcats finished third in the conference and actually defeated VCU, 65-57, only nine days ago.
Bob McKillop once again has one of the best offenses in the Atlantic 10, but breaking down VCU’s defense is a tall task.
VCU was gifted having the conference tournament on its home floor and may just use that to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
It survived a late surge from Dayton on Friday night to win, 73-68. The Rams are currently an 11-seed in the latest bracket projections, so they absolutely need this win and potentially win the Atlantic 10 to secure a spot in the tournament.
When Davidson Has the Ball
Davidson’s offense versus VCU’s defense is going to be a fascinating matchup. The Wildcats are a top-20 team in offensive efficiency, while VCU is top-20 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
Davidson shoots 3s on almost 50% of its field goal attempts, which is one of the highest rates in the country. However, the way it beat VCU in the first matchup was by going inside. The Wildcats went 18-of-27 from 2-point range while shooting under 30% from 3-point range.
The funny thing is, going inside is exactly how teams should plan to beat this VCU defense. The Rams allow only 30% from 3-point range and also have the highest turnover rate in the conference, so Davidson’s guards better be ready for the pressure VCU brings.
Davidson will have to dominate the offensive boards because VCU is the worst defensive rebounding team in the conference.
One area in which Davidson really struggles is at the free-throw line. The Wildcats have the lowest free-throw rate in the Atlantic 10 and are shooting under 62% from the charity stripe during conference play.
VCU allows one of the highest free throw rates in the conference, so Davidson has to get the line more often than they have been if it wants to beat VCU for a second time.
When VCU Has the Ball
The Rams offense has struggled during Atlantic 10 play, as they’re averaging only 0.99 points per possession.
VCU really struggles from the field shooting, under 33% from 3-point range and under 49% from 2-point range.
To make matters worse, it also has the highest turnover rate in the Atlantic 10, per KenPom. The good news, though, is Davidson has one of the lowest forced turnover rates in the conference, so the Rams may get a break tonight.
The only real positives for VCU is it gets to the free-throw line at a high rate and also crashes the offensive glass at the fifth-highest rate in the conference.
What went wrong in its loss to Davidson nine days ago was its performance from 3-point range, as it went 4-of-19. The problem is, that’s how you beat Davidson’s defense, which allows only 0.98 points per possession in conference play.
Davidson is allowing over 38% from 3-point range, which is the highest rate allowed in the conference.
VCU did grab 14 offensive rebounds and got to the free-throw line 20 times in the first meeting. So, if it can do those two things well again while hitting a higher percentage from 3, it’ll have a good shot at moving onto the finals.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The first matchup between these two teams was really low-scoring, and I think we’ll see another one tonight.
Davidson ranks 350th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom, so I expect the Wildcats to try and win this game in the half-court. The combination of VCU’s stellar defense and anemic offense should also keep the scoring low.
Therefore, I think there’s some value on under 132.5 points and would play it down to 132.
Pick: Under 132.5 (down to 132).