Wake and Rake: Sharps Jumping on Kansas-TCU at Right Price
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self
- The Kansas Jayhawks are currently listed as 2.5-point road favorites against the TCU Horned Frogs on Monday night (9 p.m. ET, ESPN).
- Using The Action Network's betting tools, we explain on how professionals quickly jumped on the early line value, and why following the sharps now may not be the smart choice for bettors.
I know, that headline is quite redundant. Professional bettors — those able to overcome the vig to win over the long haul — will bet anything if the price is right.
Remember, sharps bet numbers and not teams, so it doesn’t matter who is playing as long as the line is right.
Tonight’s Kansas-TCU game is a perfect example of how professional action can take advantage of a bad line, then leave the worst of it for the rest of the market.
Using the tools at The Action Network, let’s take a look at how smart money has already shaped the Kansas-TCU line and, spoiler alert, I don’t think the wiseguys are done.
The Jayhawks opened as 2-point road dogs against the Horned Frogs and the current line is +2.5 (and even up to +3 at some respected shops), suggesting it’s time to bet on TCU, right?
But it’s not quite that simple.
Shortly after opening, this line bottomed out a pick’em, and that’s when wiseguys struck.
Sports Insights’ Bet Signals triggered a Steam Move on TCU at a pick’em shortly after 10:30 p.m. ET Sunday, which immediately kicked the number up to Horned Frogs -2.
Seventy-seven percent of overall spread money is also backing TCU, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the spread up to the current market prices.
So does this mean the smart play is to run out and grab TCU -3? Well, it depends. If your models, systems, strategies, etc. deem that there is still value at that number, then by all means jump in.
However, professionals have already told us that the value they covet is at a pick’em, which is long gone by now. So if you want to follow that wiseguy action, just know you’re doing so at markedly worse price.
Personally, I have not wagered on this game yet. And if I do, I’ll be sure to post it in The Action Network’s mobile app.
In fact, don’t be surprised to see Kansas buyback hit the market later this morning to take advantage of the inflated Frogs price.
The major college basketball ratings systems all make Kansas the favorite in this game, even after adjusting for home-court advantage.
That makes this game a candidate for buyback, setting up two-way sharp action depending on the numbers, not the teams.