Updated 2022 NCAA Tournament Odds Tracker: Gonzaga the National Title Favorite
Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Gonzaga standout Drew Timme.
2022 NCAA Tournament Winner Odds
|San Diego State||+8000||0.60%|
|New Mexico State||+30000||0.16%|
|UC Santa Barbara||+30000||0.16%|
|East Tennessee State||+50000||0.10%|
|South Dakota State||+50000||0.10%|
|Stephen F. Austin||+50000||0.10%|
The 2022 NCAA Tournament is still a long way away, but we’re already starting to see some movement in the national title futures market as the season gets going.
This college basketball campaign will be one of the most unique in history with the volume of player movement, thanks to new transfer rules stemming from COVID-19. So many rosters will look so different, and it’s going to be difficult to project the quality of each team until they have some games under their belts.
Just a few weeks into the season, we’ve seen some movement on the national title odds board with Gonzaga building on its favorite status to +450 from +700 after beating Texas and UCLA.
Duke, Purdue and Kansas have all moved up to become the second betting choice at +1000.
Ohio State, Houston, Michigan State and Louisville are among the teams to drop early.
And here’s how odds have moved so far this season:
Who Is the NCAA Tournament Favorite?
Let’s dive into each key contender below:
1. Gonzaga (+450)
The Zags were one game from a perfect season and national title in 2021, but got blown out by Baylor in the championship. The Zags lost Jalen Suggs, but return Drew Timme and bring in the nation’s No. 1 recruit, Chet Holmgren. They’re off to a strong start early in the year with wins over Texas and UCLA.
2. Duke (+1000)
Can Duke get it done in Coach K’s final year? Last season was an all-around disaster, as the Blue Devils missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1995.
Star freshman Paolo Banchero is already becoming a household name, as the Blue Devils have made a small move up the odds board following the first week of the season. That included a victory over Kentucky.
3. Kansas (+1000)
Kansas failed to win the Big 12 for the second time in three years last season after 14 consecutive conference titles. So, Bill Self brought in eight new faces, including the top recruiting class in the Big 12.
4. Purdue (+1000)
Purdue is in the AP Top 10 for the first time in more than a decade, thanks to supreme returning production.
Coach Matt Painter returns all five starters from and more than 90% of the team’s total minutes. They’re experienced, if that kind of thing matters to you.
5. Michigan (+1200)
Expectations are sky high in Ann Arbor this season. The Wolverines didn’t miss a beat under new coach Juwan Howard, reaching the Elite Eight before an ice-cold shooting night against UCLA ended their season.
They do need to replace three starters, but brought in the nation’s No. 2 recruiting class, plus Coastal Carolina transfer DeVanté Jones.
6. UCLA (+1200)
UCLA entered the NCAA Tournament as an 11-seed, but dispatched of Michigan State in the first round. Then, the Bruins went on a run to the Final Four, where they played one of the best games in recent college basketball history against Gonzaga.
They return most of their production, including March Madness darling Johnny Juzang. The Bruins beat Villanova to open the season, which gave them a bump in national championship odds.
7. Texas (+1200)
Shaka Smart is out. Chris Beard is in from Texas Tech. So, why are the Longhorns the sixth-betting choice to win the national title?
The Longhorns added a treasure of riches in All-Big Ten guard Marcus Carr (Minnesota), center Tre Mitchell (UMass), athletic forward Christian Bishop (Creighton), power forward Dylan Disu (Vanderbilt), forward Timmy Allen (Utah) and guard Devin Askew (Kentucky).
With talent, depth and a superior coach in Beard, Texas is the second betting choice to win the Big 12. The only concern is blending all these players together in a short time.
8. Villanova (+1500)
Villanova is a perennial national-title favorite and a fifth year of eligibility for star guard Collin Gillespie will provide some much-needed leadership for a team that’s inexperienced elsewhere.
A nine-point loss to UCLA in the second game of the season dropped the Wildcats from +1200 to +1500.
9. Kentucky (+1800)
Kentucky finished under .500 for the first time since 1989 last season, so John Calipari altered his approach a bit.
While he still brought in two five-star freshmen, Cal also hit the transfer portal hard — West Virginia’s Oscar Tshiebwe, Georgia’s Sahvir Wheeler, Davidson’s Kellan Grady and Iowa’s CJ Fredrick.
10. Memphis (+2000)
Memphis put together the No. 1 recruiting class in the nation, headlined by Emoni Bates, the No. 4 overall player. The electric 6-foot-9 forward won’t even turn 18 years old until January.
Their college basketball national-championship odds reflect the upside this team has entering the season.
11. Illinois (+2000)
Illinois lost star guard Ayo Dosunmu, but returns big man Kofi Cockburn after he flirted with the transfer portal and NBA Draft.
The Illini will be hoping to wipe the bad taste out of their mouth after losing to Loyola-Chicago in the second round of last season’s NCAA Tournament.
12. Alabama (+2500)
Nate Oats has revitalized and completely made over this program, turning toward an analytical style that paid off with a regular-season and conference-tournament title last season. The Crimson Tide’s March Madness odds imply they have ton of upside despite replacing some key pieces.
13. Baylor (+2500)
The defending March Madness champion only bring back one starter, but did sign the best recruiting class in school history.
14. Florida State (+3000)
FSU is priced below Duke and even with North Carolina in college basketball national championship odds.
The Seminoles have averaged 13.3 ACC wins over the past three years, more than Duke (12.6), UNC (10.6).
15. Arkansas (+3000)
Arkansas made a run to the Elite Eight last season, but have plenty of pieces to replace to contend in a competitive SEC.
16. Oregon (+3000)
Oregon always seems to reload under coach Dana Altman and this year should be no different. The Ducks are the second betting choice to win the Pac 12 behind UCLA.
17. Tennessee (+3000)
Tennessee was a title favorite last year, thanks to a strong recruiting class and returning veteran pieces, but the offense never got going. A heavy burden falls on freshman point guard Kennedy Chandler this year.
Even without wrecking ball Yves Pons, the Vols’ defense should still be the strength of this squad.
18. Ohio State (+4000)
The Buckeyes started red hot last season, cooled off a bit, but still earned a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They proceeded to lose to Oral Roberts in the first round. March Madness, indeed.
Coach Chris Holtmann tried to bolster a poor defense by bringing in Penn State grad transfer Jamari Wheeler, one of the conference’s best defenders over the last few seasons.
19. North Carolina (+4000)
UNC appointed Hubert Davis as its next head coach after he spent the last 10 years as an assistant under Roy Williams. The Heels brought in some transfers and another good recruiting class that will make them a contender once again following disappointing 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons.
20. Michigan State (+4000)
The Spartans were a mixed bag last year, struggling out of the gates before beating three top-10 teams in the final two weeks of the season to reach the NCAA Tournament as a play-in team.
Rocket Watts transferred and Illinois Mr. Basketball Max Christie will be expected to provide scoring right away, along with Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker. Christie is MSU’s highest-rated recruit since Jaren Jackson Jr.
21. Maryland (+4000)
If you believe Mark Turgeon is capable of coaching a team to a national title, maybe this is the year the Terps can do it.
He added two key transfers in URI’s Fatts Russell and Georgetown’s Qudus Wahab, rated as the No. 3 overall transfer by 247Sports.
22. Virginia (+4000)
Virginia’s defense will once again be elite, but the Cavaliers still have so many unknowns on offense, so it’s hard to imagine them going on a national title run until new options emerge.
23. Virginia Tech (+4000)
The Hokies ranked first in the ACC in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and bring back one of the most experienced starting units in the country.
If Virginia Tech can again replicate its combination of defensive intensity and offensive efficiency, the Hokies should make another NCAA Tournament under coach Mike Young.
24. West Virginia (+4000)
Head coach Bob Huggins enters his 15th season at West Virginia having to replace his top two scorers from last year.
Last season’s team didn’t play defense like Huggins’ teams normally do. Huggins has brought in tough-minded transfers in Malik Curry (Old Dominion), Pauly Paulicap (DePaul) and Dimon Carrigan (FIU) that fit the Mountaineers’ style.
There is uncertainty with this roster, but Huggins always has his team peaking at the season’s end.
25. Houston (+4000)
While Memphis gets a lot of the buzz and love in the AAC, Houston continues to headline the conference under coach Kelvin Sampson. The program’s success culminated in a March Madness Final Four appearance last season.
The Cougars reached the AAC tournament final in each of the last three years, finishing in at least a tie for first in the regular season in two of the last three.
Houston returns Marcus Sasser (13.5 PPG) and Fabian White Jr. (6.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG) and adds three key transfers in Kyler Edwards (Texas Tech), Taze Moore (Cal. St. Bakersfield) and Josh Carlton (Connecticut).
26. Louisville (+5000)
Louisville failed to make the NCAA Tournament in coach Chris Mack’s third season, and the Cardinals are the sixth betting choice to win the ACC this year. Despite being pegged in the middle of the conference, their March Madness odds are top 20 in the nation.
27. Texas Tech (+5000)
Beard is gone, replaced by assistant Mark Adams.
The Red Raiders lost top scorers top scorers in Mac McClung and Kyler Edwards, but return three starters and scored a huge transfer in dynamic Oral Roberts forward Kevin Obanor.
Look for the Red Raiders to maintain their hard-nosed defense, while increasing their offensive pace.
28. Arizona (+5000)
Sean Miller is out at Arizona after 12 seasons, replaced by Tommy Lloyd, a brand-new head coach who has spent the last 20 years at Gonzaga.
Lloyd was instrumental in bringing in basically every foreign-born star player that ran through the Zags program this millennium.
The Wildcats will likely play faster this season than under Miller, but the change might be gradual. Lloyd needs time to implement his (presumably Gonzaga influenced) style, so expect to see Arizona’s true colors start to show as we approach conference play.
29. Creighton (+5000)
The second Big East team on the list, Creighton will be a bit of a hodge-podge to start
Creighton lost its five leading minute-getters from last season. So, coach Greg McDermott brought in the best recruiting class in school history (seventh in the nation, via 247 Sports) and last year’s top recruit (Rati Andronikashvili) returns from a torn ACL.
Ryan Hawkins transferred up from Division II, where he scored 22 points per game and led Northwest Missouri State to the National Championship.
30. Syracuse (+5000)
Syracuse just continues to make NCAA Tournament runs when they’re not supposed to. The challenging 2-3 zone was very effective at stifling opponents’ 3-point shooting, holding ACC teams to just 31.6% (second-best) from beyond the arc.
With four players on the roster measuring 6-foot-10 or taller, the Orange could again ride their unique style to a surprising late-season run.
NCAA Tournament Betting FAQ
Which Kind of Teams Win NCAA Tournament Titles?
Teams that win the NCAA Tournament generally boast strong offenses and defenses — we’ve been writing about this team profile for several years. Teams generally need to rank in KenPom’s top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency entering March Madness.
Where Can I Bet on the NCAA Tournament Winner?
How Do I Read March Madness Odds?
All U.S. sportsbooks use American odds, centered around winning $100. A +600 line means a $10 bet wins $60, plus that $10 back. A -150 favorite means you have to wager $15 to win $10.
Past NCAA Tournament Winners
Odds via SportsOddsHistory.com
|2017||North Carolina (33-7)||+1900|
|2009||North Carolina (34-4)||+450|
|2005||North Carolina (33-4)||+600|
|2000||Michigan State (32-7)||+400|