Updated 2022 NCAA Tournament Odds Tracker: Gonzaga the National Title Favorite but No. 1 Ranked Purdue is Close Behind
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2022 NCAA Tournament Winner Odds
|San Diego State||+9000||1.10%|
|North Carolina State||+13000||0.76%|
|South Dakota State||+50000||0.2%|
The 2022 NCAA Tournament is still a long way away, but we’re already starting to see some movement in the national title futures market as the season gets going.
Gonzaga holds steady as the favorite to win the entire thing despite losing to Alabama this past week. They now have two losses in the last two weeks but that has not scared bettors away.
Purdue, however, is gaining some serious steam. They just earned themselves the No. 1 ranking in the college basketball AP Poll for the first time in program history. They have dominated most of their competition throughout the season and their odds have already moved from 15/1 on DraftKings at the start of the season to +750 currently.
Duke has also gained some traction after beating Gonzaga two weeks ago. They currently sit at +800 despite losing to Ohio State on the road last week.
And here’s how odds have moved so far this season:
Who Is the NCAA Tournament Favorite?
Let’s dive into each key contender below:
1. Gonzaga (+450)
The Zags got off to a hot start to the season with top 10 wins over Texas and UCLA. At the time, it looked like nobody else was of Gonzaga’s caliber this season. That has been proven wrong very quickly. They’ve lost two of their last three games–albeit to pretty good teams in Duke and Alabama–and have shown some weaknesses so far this season. Still, though, it would take a major surprise for them to not be the favorites heading into the tournament.
2. Purdue (+750)
Purdue earned the program’s first No. 1 ranking in the AP Poll in school history this past week. They brought back all five of their starters and have one of the best frontcourts in the nation with Zach Edey and Trevion Williams. This is the best squad Matt Painter has had during his time at Purdue and expectations are high.
3. Duke (+800)
Can Duke get it done in Coach K’s final year? Last season was an all-around disaster, as the Blue Devils missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1995.
They already have wins over Gonzaga and Kentucky so far this season and it’s a young team that is only expected to get better as the season goes on. The Blue Devils faltered a little bit this past week by losing to Ohio State on the road in a game they had in control after the first half.
t4. Kansas (+1400)
Kansas brought back lots of experience and has already shown they belong right up there with the top teams in the country. The Jayhawks, however, lost to Dayton a couple of weeks ago and have yet to play their best basketball. They don’t have too many tests left before starting conference play outside of a matchup on the road at Colorado.
t4. UCLA (+1400)
UCLA has had an up-and-down season so far. They beat Villanova in overtime in the first week of the season before getting outclassed by Gonzaga. They’ve dealt with a few injuries already and as this team gets healthy they will show why they’re a contender for the national championship. It appears to be a down year for the Pac-12 so the Bruins should cruise through conference play.
t4. Villanova (+1400)
Villanova is a perennial national-title favorite and a fifth year of eligibility for star guard Collin Gillespie will provide some much-needed leadership for a team that’s inexperienced elsewhere.
Nova had a couple of tough losses to two of the top teams in the country in Purdue and UCLA to start the season. They have another opportunity for a marquee win on Tuesday night as they take on Syracuse at Madison Square Garden.
7. Michigan (+1500)
Expectations were sky high in Ann Arbor this season. Those expectations may have already dropped after a disappointing start to the season for the Wolverines. They’ve lost to Seton Hall, Arizona and North Carolina to start their season and the only one they were competitive in was Seton Hall. Juwan Howard will have to find a way to get his younger guys scoring if he wants this team to be a national championship contender.
8. Texas (+1600)
Texas was always going to be a team that was going to get better as the season went on. They didn’t return many starters from the Big 12 Tournament-winning team last season. However, the Longhorns added a treasure of riches in All-Big Ten guard Marcus Carr (Minnesota), center Tre Mitchell (UMass), athletic forward Christian Bishop (Creighton), power forward Dylan Disu (Vanderbilt), forward Timmy Allen (Utah) and guard Devin Askew (Kentucky).
As those guys get more comfortable with each other, look for Texas to get into the conversation as a contender. The Longhorns have a tough test this week on the road at Seton Hall.
9. Kentucky (+1800)
John Calipari learned from his brutal non-conference scheduling during the 2020-21 season that removed them from NCAA tournament contention. They really haven’t played anybody yet outside of the opening night matchup against Duke.
That will change in the month of December, though. The Wildcats will play Notre Dame, Ohio State and Louisville over the next few weeks as we learn more about this team.
t10. Baylor (+2000)
Most people looked at this team, saw they only returned one starter from last year’s national championship-winning team and completely wrote them off. That would be doing Scott Drew a tremendous disservice.
This team, although they may not have the star power from a year ago, is off to a great start to the season and currently rank No. 3 on KenPom. They have played four top 100 teams on KenPom and the closest game was an 8-point victory. This team is legit.
t10. Alabama (+2000)
Nate Oats has revitalized and completely made over this program. He showed why he’s regarded as one of the top basketball coaches in the country with a 91-82 win over Gonzaga.
The Crimson Tide already have five wins over KenPom’s top 100 teams with the lone hiccup coming against Iona. They play Houston on Saturday, which should be making college basketball fans salivate.
t12. Ohio State (+2200)
Ohio State started the season at 22/1 to win the national championship. They dropped a couple of games to good teams Xavier and Florida which resulted in their odds dropping to 40/1.
After wins over Duke and Penn State this past weekend, they are back to where they started. Good luck figuring this team out.
t12. Illinois (+2200)
Illinois seems to have figured some things out after getting off to a bit of a rough start. They lost two of their first four games and have since won their last five–including over Kansas State, Notre Dame and Iowa.
If Cockburn can stay healthy, they have one of the best bigs in the country and some excellent guards around him. They should be competing for the Big Ten title.
14. Memphis (+2200)
Memphis remains one of the top choices to win it all despite losing their last three games.
It’s likely due to this team’s potential and the possibility of them getting better as the season goes on. Memphis put together the No. 1 recruiting class in the nation, headlined by Emoni Bates, the No. 4 overall player. The electric 6-foot-9 forward won’t even turn 18 years old until January.
Still, those odds seem to be a bit high considering their recent performances, there’s much better value down the board.
t15. Florida State (+3000)
Florida State is what they’ve been pretty much every year under Leonard Hamilton. Athletic enough to beat just about any team in the country with their suffocating defense. But not enough skill on the team to be considered one of the top contenders.
t15. Arkansas (+3000)
Arkansas is off to an 8-0 start but they haven’t been tested much this season. That should change this weekend against Oklahoma. The Razorbacks are good enough to compete for an SEC Championship and return to the Elite Eight.
t15. Michigan State (+3000)
Michigan State has been a bit of a mixed bag to start the season. Although it’s clear they are better than the team that snuck into the NCAA Tournament last season, it’s unclear whether they are good enough to be talked about as a serious contender.
t18. Houston (+3500)
This is by far the best value play of any team on the board. It is borderline disrespectful to have this team at 18th in odds. They currently rank No. 4 on KenPom behind only Gonzaga, Purdue and Baylor in total efficiency. And are No. 1 in defensive efficiency.
Kelvin Sampson has already shown that he can lead a team to the Final Four. It feels like if this team was named Kentucky, Kansas or Duke, they would be in the top five in odds.
t18. Arizona (+3500)
Sean Miller is out at Arizona after 12 seasons, replaced by Tommy Lloyd, a brand-new head coach who has spent the last 20 years at Gonzaga.
Lloyd was instrumental in bringing in basically every foreign-born star player that ran through the Zags program this millennium.
The Wildcats have looked great under new leadership so far this season. They already have wins over Michigan and Wichita State. They have a really tough test this weekend on the road at Illinois.
t20. Texas Tech (+4000)
Chris Beard is gone, replaced by assistant Mark Adams.
The Red Raiders lost top scorers top scorers in Mac McClung and Kyler Edwards, but return three starters and scored a huge transfer in dynamic Oral Roberts forward Kevin Obanor.
They hadn’t been tested until they played Providence on the road last week. They lost 72-68. Now they have an even tougher test on Tuesday night against Tennessee at a neutral site.
t20. Oregon (+4000)
Many people expected Oregon to pick up where they left off. But so far this season, they have shown they had too much to replace after last season.
The Ducks have already lost four games and looked borderline uncompetitive against top teams Houston and BYU. There’s not a lot of value in taking a team 40/1 that currently sits outside of the top 50 in KenPom.
But Dana Altman typically has his team playing their best basketball in the latter half of the season.
t20. LSU (+4000)
The American Gangster, Will Wade, has done it again. He’s got his Tigers off to an 8-0 start with wins over Belmont, Penn State and Wake Forest.
They won’t be tested until they kick off SEC play against Auburn on Dec. 29. It would be to no one’s surprise if LSU is a contender in the SEC once again.
t23. Maryland (+4500)
Welp things have not gone great for the Terrapins so far this season. They’re 5-4 and have lost three-straight games–albeit to some top competition.
Oh and to throw the cherry on top, head coach Mark Turgeon has already resigned and we haven’t even hit Christmas yet. A team to stay away from.
t23. Tennessee (+4500)
Finally, a team with some value. This is a solid Tennesse team that already has some Q1 wins–over North Carolina at a neutral and over Colorado on the road.
And they have one of the best guards in the country in Kennedy Chandler who dropped 27 points in their win over Colorado. If he can provide the scoring, the defense is good enough to make a run in the tournament.
t23. North Carolina (+4500)
UNC appointed Hubert Davis as its next head coach after he spent the last 10 years as an assistant under Roy Williams. The Tar Heels dropped a couple of games early on to good teams in Tennessee and Purdue.
They have since won their last three including wins over Michigan and Georgia Tech.
A matchup with UCLA on Dec. 18 is one to keep an eye on.
t23. Connecticut (+4500)
Dan Hurley has some weapons on this team. The Huskies don’t have the star power of James Bouknight like they did last season but they have been productive as a team to start the season.
Their next 12 games are against teams in the KenPom top 100. That should give us a good indication of how good this team really is.
t23. Virginia Tech (+4000)
The Hokies ranked first in the ACC in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and bring back one of the most experienced starting units in the country.
If Virginia Tech can again replicate its combination of defensive intensity and offensive efficiency, the Hokies should make another NCAA Tournament under coach Mike Young.
t27. Virginia (+5000)
Virginia’s defense is once again elite, but the Cavaliers still have so many unknowns on offense, so it’s hard to imagine them going on a national title run until new options emerge.
t27. West Virginia (+5000)
Head coach Bob Huggins enters his 15th season at West Virginia and had to replace his top two scorers from last year.
Last season’s team didn’t play defense like Huggins’ teams normally do. Huggins has brought in tough-minded transfers in Malik Curry (Old Dominion), Pauly Paulicap (DePaul) and Dimon Carrigan (FIU) that fit the Mountaineers’ style.
There is uncertainty with this roster, but Huggins always has his team peaking at the season’s end.
t27. Seton Hall (+5000)
Seton has snuck their way into the top 30 in odds. They are 7-1 with a win over Michigan. The Pirates will have their toughest test of the season so far on Thursday as they take on Chris Beard and the Texas Longhorns.
NCAA Tournament Betting FAQ
Which Kind of Teams Win NCAA Tournament Titles?
Teams that win the NCAA Tournament generally boast strong offenses and defenses — we’ve been writing about this team profile for several years. Teams generally need to rank in KenPom’s top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency entering March Madness.
Where Can I Bet on the NCAA Tournament Winner?
How Do I Read March Madness Odds?
All U.S. sportsbooks use American odds, centered around winning $100. A +600 line means a $10 bet wins $60, plus that $10 back. A -150 favorite means you have to wager $15 to win $10.
Past NCAA Tournament Winners
Odds via SportsOddsHistory.com
|2017||North Carolina (33-7)||+1900|
|2009||North Carolina (34-4)||+450|
|2005||North Carolina (33-4)||+600|
|2000||Michigan State (32-7)||+400|