Purdue-Old Dominion Betting Odds: Opening Spread, Analysis for 2019 NCAA Tournament

Purdue-Old Dominion Betting Odds: Opening Spread, Analysis for 2019 NCAA Tournament article feature image

Nuccio DiNuzzo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Purdue Boilermakers guard Carsen Edwards (3).

#3 Purdue vs. #14 Old Dominion NCAA Tournament Betting Odds

  • Spread: Purdue -12.5
  • Over/Under: 128.5
  • Date: Thursday, March 21
  • Time: 9:50 p.m. ET
  • Location: Hartford, Conn.
  • TV: TBS

Purdue’s Statistical Profile

Purdue boasts a slow, but efficient offense that ranks 226th in the country in KenPom’s Adjusted Tempo, but fifth overall in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.

Carsen Edwards is the team’s most potent weapon, averaging 23.4 ppg, including a stellar 84.2% from the free throw line. However, after Edwards, Ryan Cline is the lone remaining player scoring in double-digits (11.8 ppg).

The Boilermakers did themselves no favors in the Big Ten Tournament semfinals, struggling to a two-point loss against Minnesota despite closing as 10 point favorites. — PJ Walsh

  • Record: 23-9
  • Adj. Efficiency Rank: 10
  • Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 5
  • Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 31
  • Tempo Rank: 279

All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15

Old Dominion’s Statistical Profile

For the first time since 2011, Old Dominion is back in the big dance. If you caught their barn burner of a conference final against Western Kentucky, you saw some typical ODU hoops. Poor offense, great defense and a horrendously slow pace.

Their offense is ranked below No. 200 in KenPom’s rankings, but their defense is all the way up at No. 52. Their tempo, meanwhile, ranks way near the bottom at No. 326. This led to unders hitting in 18 of 31 games. None of their games had a total of 150 or higher, while about two thirds had totals of less than 130. In 11 previous NCAA Tourney appearances, they’ve failed to make it past the second round. — Mark Gallant

  • Record: 26-8
  • Adj. Efficiency Rank: 133
  • Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 217
  • Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 47
  • Tempo Rank: 321

All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15

Purdue-Old Dominion Instant Bracket, Betting Picks

Who is Old Dominion? Defense and rebounding. The Monarchs are actually 14th in the nation in effective FG% on the defensive end and are top 55 in NCAA in rebounding percentage of the floor. They also have a lot of length and are led by two senior guards in Ahmad Carver and BJ Stith.

The problem is Purdue can match them in all of those areas. The biggest difference between these two teams is on the offensive end, where Purdue is leaps and bounds better. Purdue owns the fifth-highest Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in D-1, per Kenpom. Old Dominion ranks 216 and has an Effective FG% ranking of 302nd, 2P% of 340 and FT% of 324. It’s an ugly, ugly offense.

Both teams defend extremely well in the half court and will make each other work for points, but unless Carsen Edwards has an off night, I can’t see ODU posing a real threat.

Early ATS lean: Purdue
Early bracket pick: Purdue — Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Purdue-Old Dominion Projections

Sean Koerner’s proprietary projections also power our Bracket Simulator, which helps you find the most optimal bracket for your pool size.

  • Spread: Purdue -15
  • Total: 133
  • Proj Score: Purdue 74 | Old Dominion 59
  • Win Probability: Purdue 94.9% | Old Dominion 5.1%
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