Sharp Action Driving Eastern Washington-Northern Colorado Line Movement
Eastern Washington Eagles guard Kim Aiken Jr. (24) plays defense against Syracuse Orange forward Oshae Brissett (11). Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are betting both the spread and the over/under in the Eastern Washington-Northern Colorado college basketball game on Monday night (9 p.m. ET).
- Northern Colorado is currently listed as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 147.
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how the pros are betting the game.
While recreational bettors naturally gravitate toward big, nationally televised games that are dominating the gambling conversation, wiseguys knows that an under-the-radar matchup can provide just as much value as a primetime showdown, if not more.
After examining today’s tiny college basketball slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, it’s clear that wiseguys are getting down hard on an overlooked Big Sky grudge-match at 9 p.m. ET.
>> All odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Eastern Washington at Northern Colorado
9 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Eastern Washington (+9.5 to +8) and Over (144 to 147)
On paper, this looks like an easy blowout win and cover for the home favorite. After all, Northern Colorado (9-5) has a far superior record than visiting Eastern Washington (3-11).
However, sharps aren’t taking the conventional wisdom bait.
This line opened at Northern Colorado -9.5. Despite receiving 71% of spread bets, the line has fallen all the way down to -8. Some books are even showing -7.5.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the spread to give public NOCO backers an easier shot at covering?
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed two steam and reverse line moves on EWU +9.5 and again at +8.5. This overload of respected money created big liability for the house, forcing bookmakers to adjust the line all the way down to +8.
EWU is only getting 29% of bets but nearly 50% of dollars– further evidence of smart money grabbing the points, not laying them. Historically, conference dogs bark loudest as the built-in familiarity and rivalry-aspect tends to level the playing field.
Goodfellas are also getting down hard on the over/under.
This total opened at 144. Over/under wagers are split pretty much down the middle, with a slight edge to the Over (56%). However, the line has skyrocketed three full points up to 147.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all, aside from a juice adjustment of a cent or two, when bets are relatively even.
So what caused this movement?
Pros hammered the Over 144.5, Over 145 and Over 146, triggering three separate steam and reverse line moves. The fact that sharps kept hitting the over despite the line getting worse indicates supreme wiseguy confidence.
We haven’t noticed a single conflicting under move (or buyback).