2019 College Football Rankings: Updated AP Poll vs. Our Vegas Power Ratings After Week 7

Oct 14, 2019 11:00 PM EDT
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Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LSU’s Joe Burrow

  • College football rankings can come in all different shapes and sizes, including the AP Poll and our Vegas-style betting power ratings.
  • Here we're comparing the updated AP Poll after Week 7 to our power ratings, which were updated overnight Sunday.
  • AP voters tend to be more reactionary, while our ratings are steeped in boxscore data and try to limit small-sample overreaction.

Ever wonder why a team like Miami — 2-3 with no quality wins — could be favored over No. 20 Virginia? Just like Friday night?

Well, the AP Poll doesn’t tell anywhere close to the complete story.

Instead, bettors should be using some kind of power ratings to judge teams. Things like yards per play, efficiency, explosiveness and more on both sides of the ball need to be used — that’s why a perceived worse team can be favored against a ranked opponent. Wins and losses don’t tell the whole story.

Collin Wilson is the gatekeeper of our oddsmaker-style college football power ratings, which rank all 130 FBS teams. Action EDGE members can access the full rankings, plus the ratings used to create point spreads between any two teams on a neutral field.

Here we’re comparing the AP Poll after Week 7 to our power ratings to see how perception on the Top 25 teams differ.

College Football Rankings, Week 7

AP Poll vs. Our Power Ratings

All data below came before Week 7. The table is updated above.

Alabama

  • AP Poll: 1
  • Our Rankings: 1

Alabama isn’t getting much pub as the No. 1 team in the country, because this is Alabama’s norm. But the Tide have separated themselves from Clemson and would be favored by almost a field goal over the Tigers on a neutral field.

Clemson

  • AP Poll: 2
  • Our Rankings: 2

Clemson is still No. 2 in our power ratings, but before the season, it would have been almost a touchdown favorite over anyone but Alabama.

Now, we make the Tigers a coin flip against Ohio State, and just a 3-4 point favorite over LSU, Oklahoma and Georgia.

Ohio State

  • AP Poll: T-3
  • Our Rankings: 3

The Buckeyes have made big moves in both our power ratings and the AP Poll thanks to dominance on both sides of the ball. They blew out Michigan State last week in their first big test of the season.

LSU

  • AP Poll: 5
  • Our Rankings: 4

LSU’s dynamic offense will be tested this week against an excellent Florida secondary, but if the Tigers stay this hot, we have to start taking them very, very seriously as a College Football Playoff contender.

Oklahoma

  • AP Poll: 6
  • Our Rankings: 5

Oklahoma’s much-improved defense is a welcome sight for Sooners fan, but many obstacles remain on the schedule — including Texas on Saturday. We knew how good the offense would be, but even a top 40 defense makes Oklahoma a top 3 team.

Georgia

  • AP Poll: T-3
  • Our Rankings: 6

Ho hum? It’s hard to find major fault with Georgia’s season thus far, but I think most expect the Dawgs to blow out Notre Dame at home, and they didn’t. Otherwise, it’s been pretty uninspiring.

As always, their season will come down to a game against Florida in Jacksonville and if they get through that, Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

Notre Dame

  • AP Poll: 9
  • Our Rankings: 7

Anyone expecting a major step back for the Irish after reaching the College Football Playoff might be disappointed. Notre Dame hung tough with Georgia and has taken care of business everywhere else.

The next two weeks, Notre Dame hosts USC and goes to Michigan, which should tell us a lot more about it.

Wisconsin

  • AP Poll: 8
  • Our Rankings: 8

One of the biggest risers in any poll this season has been Wisconsin. Behind a dominant ground game and once-again stellar defense, the Badgers blew out Michigan and have allowed just 29 points (including three shutouts).

Wisconsin is off this week before games against Illinois, then Ohio State.

Penn State

  • AP Poll: 10
  • Our Rankings: 9

Penn State gets a major test this Saturday when it travels to Iowa. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 but were outgained by both Pitt and Buffalo. There are some cracks in this offense waiting to be exposed.

Texas A&M

  • AP Poll: 24
  • Our Rankings: 10

A&M hasn’t looked great in big moments but still holds steady at No. 10 in our power ratings. A close game against Alabama this week could help keep them there.

Auburn

  • AP Poll: 12
  • Our Rankings: 11

The Tigers have played the toughest schedule in America, and it’s not getting any easier. Both our power ratings and voters were fairly forgiving after a loss to Florida last week.

Utah

  • AP Poll: 15
  • Our Rankings: 12

The Utes are still without a signature win but do have some impressive boxscore results, which is why they remain No. 12 in our power ratings.

Florida

  • AP Poll: 7
  • Our Rankings: 13

Florida is still lagging behind in our ratings thanks to some pedestrian offensive efforts early in the season.

Oregon

  • AP Poll: 13
  • Our Rankings: 14

Oregon beat Colorado handily on Friday night, proving once again how legit its defense is in a 45-3 win. The Ducks could get bumped up again after this week.

Texas

  • AP Poll: 11
  • Our Rankings: 15

We’ll learn a lot more about Texas when it takes on Oklahoma on Saturday, but for now, the Longhorns are still a little bit overrated according to our power ratings.

Washington

  • AP Poll: NR
  • Our Rankings: 16

Washington has been disastrous this season, slipping in a big way on defense en route to a 4-2 start. The Huskies face a tricky test at Arizona this week before hosting Oregon next week.

Michigan

  • AP Poll: 16
  • Our Rankings: 17

Michigan started the year near the top 5 of our power ratings, but quickly tumbled after a near-loss to Army and a blowout loss against Wisconsin. The Wolverines will have plenty of chances to get back into our good graces with Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan State still on the schedule.

Iowa

  • AP Poll: 17
  • Our Rankings: 18

Iowa’s stingy defense gets a great chance to prove itself on Saturday at home against Penn State.

Missouri

  • AP Poll: NR
  • Our Rankings: 19

The Tigers haven’t been rated in the AP Poll thanks to a bowl ban — not that the two are mutually exclusive — but remain one of the 20 best teams in the country by our measure.

Michigan State

  • AP Poll: NR
  • Our Rankings: 20

Sparty always feels flawed in some way, but the defense and absurd efficiency numbers that unit produces keeps it high up in our power ratings.

Oklahoma State

  • AP Poll: NR
  • Our Rankings: 21

UCF

  • AP Poll: NR
  • Our Rankings: 22

UCF has actually made a big jump in our power ratings this season despite losing two games.

Baylor

  • AP Poll: 22
  • Our Rankings: 23

The Bears aren’t quite in that elite category yet, but after another great start, they’re getting close.

Washington State

  • AP Poll: NR
  • Our Rankings: 24

Tainted by a loss to UCLA in which it gave up 67 points, Washington State is still tucked solidly into the back of our Top 25, but nowhere to be found in the AP Poll.

Iowa State

  • AP Poll: NR
  • Our Rankings: 25

The Cyclones are very much a contender in the Big 12 and the offense is improving. Don’t sleep on this team down the stretch.

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