2019 College Football Rankings: AP Poll vs. Our Betting Power Ratings After Week 9 Games

2019 College Football Rankings: AP Poll vs. Our Betting Power Ratings After Week 9 Games article feature image
Credit:

Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mike Miranda

  • College football rankings of all kinds are due for a shakeup after Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Auburn and Wisconsin all lost in Week 9.
  • We've updated our power ratings after Week 9 and filled in the AP Poll after its release on Sunday afternoon.
  • The AP Poll features nine teams that are not in the top 25 of our power ratings.

Ever wonder why ranked teams can be underdogs to non-ranked teams? Or why certain point spreads look a little fishy? Because simple measures like record and ranking can’t capture a team’s true ability.

Our oddsmaker-style college football power ratings aim to judge the true quality of a team based on boxscore data, not just wins and losses.

The AP Poll, by contrast, is more reactionary to surface-level performance and doesn’t always paint a complete picture of each team’s successes and failures.

Here we’re comparing our college football power ratings to the AP Poll to see which teams might be overvalued and undervalued by the national media and public after Week 9.

Action EDGE members can get access to our complete power ratings here, and use them to create a point spread between any two teams on a neutral field.

College Football Rankings, Week 9

Both the AP Poll and our power ratings are updated as of 2 p.m. ET on Sunday.

All data and analysis below is from before Week 9.

Ohio State

  • AP Poll: 3
  • Our Rankings: 1

The Buckeyes have a big test Saturday against Wisconsin, but have rolled this season on both sides of the ball.

Entering Week 9, Ohio State would be favored over any team in the country.

Alabama

  • AP Poll: 1
  • Our Rankings: 2

The outlook for the Tide shifts dramatically without Tua Tagovailoa, who injured his ankle against Tennessee last week.

We estimate he’s worth about a touchdown to the spread, and maybe more. So without him, Alabama might be an underdog to LSU at home.

Clemson

  • AP Poll: 4
  • Our Rankings: 3

Clemson hasn’t looked overly impressive but has by far the best chance to reach the College Football Playoff since it will be a three-touchdown favorite or more in all of its remaining games.

Oklahoma

  • AP Poll: 5
  • Our Rankings: 4

Oklahoma’s defense might be the most improved unit in the country, and the offense hasn’t missed a beat. The Sooners could be double-digit favorites in all their remaining games.

LSU

  • AP Poll: 2
  • Our Rankings: 5

LSU is No. 2 in the AP Poll but just outside our top 4 given the steps back the Tigers have taken on defense.

Georgia

  • AP Poll: 10
  • Our Rankings: 6

Georgia is still hanging on to the No. 6 spot in our power ratings, but the Bulldogs do not pass the eye test right now. They’ve looked sloppy on offense for the last two weeks.

UGA has a bye this week, then a date with Florida.

Penn State

  • AP Poll: 6
  • Our Rankings: 7

The Nittany Lions have survived in two straight weeks despite being outgained — can they survive again at Michigan State?

Wisconsin

  • AP Poll: 13
  • Our Rankings: 8

Oof. Wisconsin losing to Illinois really took some of the air out of its meeting with Ohio State, but the Badgers impressive defensive metrics keep them at No. 8 in our power ratings.

Oregon

  • AP Poll: 11
  • Our Rankings: 9

The Ducks have been steadily climbing the AP Poll and our power ratings since an opening loss to Auburn.

Auburn

  • AP Poll: 9
  • Our Rankings: 10

The SEC is very unforgiving.

Auburn, despite being a top 10 team in both the AP Poll and our power ratings, is a double-digit underdog at LSU on Saturday.

Utah

  • AP Poll: 12
  • Our Rankings: 11

The Utes have floated in this range of the AP Poll for several weeks, though we’ve had them in the top 15 pretty much all season.

Notre Dame

  • AP Poll: 8
  • Our Rankings: 12

Slightly overrated, Notre Dame has a chance to prove us wrong this week at Michigan.

Florida

  • AP Poll: 7
  • Our Rankings: 13

Also slightly overrated, the Gators also have a chance to prove us wrong next week in Jacksonville against Georgia.

Iowa State

  • AP Poll: 23
  • Our Rankings: 14

Iowa State just keeps winning quietly and has shot up our power ratings in recent weeks. The AP Poll hasn’t quite caught up yet.

Michigan

  • AP Poll: 19
  • Our Rankings: 15

The Wolverines seem dead in the water, but they’re still one of the 15 best teams in the country by our measure. That’s why they’re just a 1-point underdog against Notre Dame on Saturday.

Texas

  • AP Poll: 15
  • Our Rankings: 16

We definitely had our doubts about Texas entering the season and though AP Poll voters were overrating them, but Sam Ehlinger and the Longhorns offense have been excellent despite injuries piling up.

Baylor

  • AP Poll: 14
  • Our Rankings: 17

How for real is Baylor? Despite being unbeaten, it still doesn’t feel like anyone wants to take the Bears seriously.

They do end the season hosting Oklahoma and Texas, so Baylor will get to prove itself down the stretch.

Texas A&M

  • AP Poll: NR
  • Our Rankings: 18

Texas A&M has played the toughest schedule in the country to date, and has three losses. That’s why you won’t find the Aggies in the AP Poll, but you will find them in our power ratings.

Washington

  • AP Poll: NR
  • Our Rankings: 19

Similar to Texas A&M, Washington has lost some tough games but is still among the 20 best teams in the country.

Missouri

  • AP Poll: NR
  • Our Rankings: 20

A straight-up loss to Vanderbilt dropped Missouri from the AP Poll. What a strange season — two outright losses as 14-point or more underdogs, five other wins.

Iowa

  • AP Poll: 20
  • Our Rankings: 21

The Hawkeyes have been pretty steady in our power ratings and the AP Poll over the last few weeks. Would you expect anything different from Iowa?

USC

  • AP Poll: NR
  • Our Rankings: 22

USC needed a late touchdown drive to survive at Colorado on Friday night, and has been pretty i

UCF

  • AP Poll: NR
  • Our Rankings: 23

This is close to the highest we’ve had UCF rated in the last few seasons, despite their losses.

Oklahoma State

  • AP Poll: NR
  • Our Rankings: 24

We still very much believe in this Oklahoma State team, but the Pokes haven’t backed up our faith on the field much recently.

Michigan State

  • AP Poll: NR
  • Our Rankings: 25

Sparty hasn’t shown much to AP Poll voters that they deserve to be in the Top 25, but can erase a lot of those question marks with a win over Penn State on Saturday.

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