Auburn vs. LSU Odds & Picks: Is This Joe Burrow’s Toughest Test Yet?
Chuck Cook, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Joe Burrow
- Auburn vs. LSU odds are taking their final shape ahead of their meeting on Saturday afternoon (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
- LSU is a 10.5-point favorite, but is that enough for this high-powered Tigers offense, led by quarterback Joe Burrow?
- Our experts break down how they're picking this game and cover every betting angle.
Auburn vs. LSU Odds
- Spread: LSU -10.5
- Over/Under: 58
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
It doesn’t seem like LSU gets any weeks off. That’s life in the SEC.
The Tigers dismantled Mississippi State after topping Florida, and now turn their attention to Auburn on Saturday afternoon.
Auburn has gotten improved quarterback play from freshman Bo Nix, but can he keep pace with Joe Burrow and this electric LSU offense? Here’s how we’re betting it.
Auburn vs. LSU Line Movement
This line has had a bit of an up-and-down ride since opening, but to this point has stayed between 12.5 and 10.5, meaning there hasn’t been enough to get oddsmakers to push it to a key number in either direction. LSU is seeing 60% of bets and roughly the same percentage (59%) of actual money.
The total has seen a much bigger discrepancy, as bettors are split down the middle but money is not. Eighty-two percent of actual dollars have hit the over, but oddsmakers have still reacted minimally, inching the number up from 58.5 to 59. — Danny Donahue
Collin Wilson: Can Nix Pull a Burrow?
It was exactly one year ago on the Action Network Podcast when we railed on Joe Burrow for not throwing downfield in a conservative offense. LSU would travel to Auburn, trailing by two scores late before Burrow executed an outright victory as a double-digit underdog.
The LSU quarterback had started his transformation to the dynamic downfield passer we saw in the Fiesta Bowl and to now, when he’s a Heisman favorite.
LSU leads the nation in passing success rate, so the big test will be against an Auburn defense that is 14th opponent passing success rate. The Tigers will also get Terrance Marshall back from injury — he had six touchdown grabs in the first three games.
The question for Auburn offensively is whether or not Bo Nix continues his transformation as a downfield passer, similar to how Burrow took steps forward in the back half of his first season.
After a breakout game against Mississippi State, he stalled against Florida, but returned in a 12 of 17 effort against Arkansas with three touchdowns and a long of 48 yards. LSU has been vulnerable deep against the pass, ranking 114th in opponent pass explosiveness.
LSU has been fantastic against the run, which is not something Auburn offense has been able to establish with consistency this season.
In the end, this game may come down to generating chaos.
Both teams excel in creating disruption, as Auburn ranks 14th and LSU ranks 16th in defensive havoc. While LSU is 22nd in havoc allowed, Auburn hasn’t been good at limiting turnovers and chaos — its 15 offensive fumbles is fifth-highest in FBS while 10 recoveries is third in the nation. Fumble luck at its finest.
Our power ratings project this game at LSU -12.5, giving value to the home team as the number dips to 10. Auburn has a top 10 red zone defense, which should be the best LSU has seen as they rank No. 1 in the country in red zone scoring percentage.
Ultimately, this game may come down to fumble luck and at some point Auburn’s luck should run out. — Collin Wilson
Petrella: Is This Total High Enough?
This LSU offense has not been held under 6.5 yards per play this season, and topped 10.5 against Florida. That was the program’s best ever in a conference game. Simply put, I think the Tigers can dictate the pace at home against just about any defense in the nation.
Our numbers make this total 64.2, which I think is more accurate than the 59 the market is hanging right now.
At the very least, there’s upside for this total to go over comfortably, given LSU’s ability to finish drives, its explosive passing attack and Auburn’s ability to stop the run. That’s exactly how things went against Florida, when the game went over in a 42-28 LSU win.
I think both teams will be throwing, and the under getting home will require repeated stops in the red zone. — Steve Petrella
Pick: Over 59 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Stuckey: Need to See How LSU Line Holds Up
I will be looking to play this live or for the second half, as I really want to see how the LSU offensive line, which has been playing at a very high level, holds up against the elite Auburn front seven.
If Gus’s bunch can generate pressure (and potentially play more zone on the back end to try to force turnovers, which I think they need to do), they will have a shot. If not, I don’t think Bo Nix can ultimately keep up in a shootout on the road in Baton Rouge.
If it’s close at the half and Auburn is getting to Burrow and Nix has some confidence, I may look to back Auburn in the 2H, trusting some key Malzahn second half adjustments which we’ve seen countless times in the past.
It’s a really intriguing matchup as it basically comes down to strength on strength when LSU has the ball and weakness (relatively speaking) on weakness when Auburn has the ball. Both teams also have elite special team units, ranking in the top 5 per SP+.
For what it’s worth, in power 5 conference matchups between ranked teams with a double digit spread, the favorite is 57-39-1 (59.4%) ATS since 2005 for a 15.9% ROI. Those teams have covered by an average margin of over 5 points per game. — Stuckey