Arizona vs. Hawaii Betting Odds & Pick: Expect an Island Shootout?

Arizona vs. Hawaii Betting Odds & Pick: Expect an Island Shootout? article feature image

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Hawaii quarterback Cole MacDonald

Arizona vs. Hawaii Betting Odds, Pick

  • Spread: Arizona -10.5
  • Over/Under: 70.5
  • Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS Sports Network

College football bettors didn’t need to wait long for late night action on the Island. Just one game and about four hours into the season, to be exact.

But is it worth betting?

Let’s dive into the Arizona offense with a healthy Khalil Tate, Hawaii’s philosophy and more.

Wilson: How I’m Betting Arizona vs. Hawaii

Monday, the most respected pick service in the game released a play on the over, which triggered rapid movement from 70 to 74.

There are plenty of reasons to think it will be a shootout, from the health of quarterbacks Cole McDonald and Khalil Tate to historically poor defenses to the perception that games on the Island are shootouts.

But a closer look at the advanced stats will have me laying money on the under. My projections make this total 60.5.

When I subbed the 2017 Arizona offense into my projections to capture a healthy Khalil Tate, I still did not get the total to 70 in this game. And that 2017 offense was so good down the stretch that’s probably Arizona’s offensive ceiling this year.

Arizona in late 2017 was the most electric offense in college football. But an ankle injury to Tate in Week 2 last season really hampered him all year.

The Kevin Sumlin-coached offense took over last season and finished with an adjusted pace of 16th in the nation. Arizona’s standard downs run rate was 55th, a number which should go higher if Tate is allowed to leave the pocket. So I think we see Arizona run the ball a little more this season.

On the other side, Hawaii and McDonald started last year 6-1 before injuries picked up and defenses knew how to scheme for the run n’ shoot.

Hawaii’s run/pass splits won’t surprise anyone, but the adjusted pace of 109th in the nation should.

The run n’ shoot offense was successful early with a healthy McDonald constantly throwing, but Hawaii coach Nick Rolovich has a history of slow pace, never ranking above 98th since taking over in 2016.

I have turned on a line alert in The Action Network app, and will look to see when resistance comes in the market to take on under on the Action Network App.

Line alerts in The Action Network app.

In addition to the under, I am backing Arizona on the spread.

Both teams are top 11 in defensive returning production. But the Wildcats have more depth on a roster that was 16th against passing downs explosiveness.

It may come as a surprise to many, but an Arizona secondary that returns almost every player ranked 50th in defensive back havoc in 2018. There were signs of life in the Arizona defense last season, but the entire Hawaii defense returns after ranking 102nd in IsoPPP.

Another important takeaway is havoc allowed. Arizona was much better at ball protection, ranking 16th in havoc allowed in contrast to Hawaii at 113th.

Collin’s Card

  • Under 74/73.5
  • Arizona -10.5 or better

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