College Football Picks, Predictions: An Early Week 0 Bet for Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky

College Football Picks, Predictions: An Early Week 0 Bet for Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky article feature image
Credit:

Mike Watters-Imagn Images. Pictured: Sam Houston quarterback Hunter Watson.

Real college football games will be played this week. We're officially back.

So, why wait until the weekend to dive into Saturday's five-game FBS slate? Instead, I'm looking now at key matchup advantages to watch in Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky on Saturday, Aug. 23.

New Sam Houston head coach Phil Longo changes the dynamic quite a bit in this matchup, so it's worth taking a deep dive into what we can expect when these teams take the field.

Check out my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Week 0 below.

Quickslip

Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky Odds

Sam Houston Logo
Saturday, Aug. 23
7 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network
Western Kentucky Logo
Sam Houston Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+10
-112
60.5
-115o / -105u
+295
Western Kentucky Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-10
-108
60.5
-115o / -105u
-375
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.
DraftKings Logo

The night slate of Week 0 will feature two programs fresh off bowl seasons and looking to carry over the momentum into 2025.

Western Kentucky and Sam Houston will kick off the Conference USA season from Houchens Industries L. T. Smith Stadium at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday.

The Hilltoppers and Bearkats will each feature wrinkles from previous versions of their offensive identity, creating a potential opportunity for an early-week wager.

New Western Kentucky offensive coordinator Rick Bowie brings a high-flying offense from Abilene Christian. The OC is joined by his former quarterback, Maverick McIvor, who racked up 30 touchdowns and over 3,800 yards for the FCS Wildcats under Bowie’s tutelage.

The senior reduced his mistakes to a miniscule 1.8% turnover-worthy play rate at Abilene in 2024, indicating the Western Kentucky offense could be a laser show.

McIvor will have the services of slot K.D. Hutchinson, who posted an elite 3.9 yards per route run on 30 targets last season.

Wideout Matthew Henry was the biggest prize in the Western Kentucky portal haul, catching 62 balls for more than 1,100 yards at Western Illinois last season.

Christian Anaya➡️ Matthew Henry for the Leatherneck Touchdown!

Q3 | WIU 21 | GWU 14#GoNecks | #OneGoal | #ECIpic.twitter.com/2W2p3OybFP

— Western Illinois Football (@WIUFootball) November 23, 2024

The Hilltoppers will not be the only team looking to sling it out, as Sam Houston is set to add tempo and a more vertical passing game this season.

New Bearkats head coach Phil Longo called the fastest offenses in the nation for Ole Miss and North Carolina before becoming Wisconsin's offensive coordinator in 2023.

After failing to get the Badgers going uptempo, Longo took the Sam Houston head coaching gig with the intention of calling the offense.

Quarterback Hunter Watson was magnificent in lifting the offense a season ago but will now work without his top three wide receivers from last year's bowl team.

The Bearkats are also without experience in the backfield, as no rusher with more than 30 yards has been retained.

While the tempo will be fast for both offenses, the defenses for Western Kentucky and Sam Houston may be some of the worst units in all of FBS.

The Bearkats have to replace the entire starting defense from last year's team, and the Hilltoppers are also looking at a substantial rebuild with the top 12 tacklers missing from 2024.

WKU co-defensive coordinators Da’Von Brown and Davis Merritt will implement a 3-3-5 scheme, which could allow Watson to run plenty of keeper RPO attempts to move the Bearkats down the field.

Western Kentucky and Sam Houston will have offensive play-callers who will stress tempo and take vertical shots downfield. Because of the boom-or-bust nature, there could be a plethora of plays that make this game easily exceed the FBS average of 14 possessions.

The key numbers in betting totals in this range are 62 and 65, making 61 or better an opening weekend play in college football.

Pick: Over 61

About the Author
Collin is a senior writer for the Action Network, but serves in various roles behind the scenes as well. As someone who specializes in data visualization of probabilities, power ratings, and head-to-head matchups, Collin’s work within the college football space powers the Action Network’s PRO projections throughout the college football season, and has done so since the birth of the app in 2017. Collin contributes similarly to the college basketball vertical, and his passion for predictive analytics have led him to become a key force in finding betting edges in more niche markets such as professional wrestling and entertainment awards.

Follow Collin Wilson @_Collin1 on Twitter/X.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.