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College Football Odds & Picks for BYU vs. Boise State: Sharps Moving Friday’s Spread

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Tim Warner/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Wilson

  • BYU will look to keep its impressive season going against Boise State in Idaho on Friday.
  • Despite the Broncos' fast start to the season, sharps are banking on the Cougars pulling off another solid victory.
  • Danny Donahue breaks down how sharps have been betting the game below.

College Football Odds: BYU vs. Boise State

BYU Odds -4
Boise State Odds +4
Over/Under 63
Time 9:45 p.m. ET
TV FS1
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The final tease before Saturday’s main slate of nearly 50 games comes by way of a three-game college football slate this evening. Last of those three, but certainly not least in the eyes of sharp bettors, is BYU vs. Boise State.

The pros have been making moves on this game all week, and have caused a significant shift as a result. Our PRO Report makes their opinion clear.

Note: Data as of 11:30 a.m. ET.

There’s more sharp action! The pros are betting several more games on the Week 10 slate, including …

  • Miami vs. NC State [Unlock]
  • Arizona vs. Utah [Unlock]
  • Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State [Unlock]

Already have a PRO account? Click here to view Saturday’s sharp action.


College Football Sharp Pick: BYU vs. Boise State

Big bets from sharps have been landing on one BYU throughout the week, and the market has reacted accordingly. But our projections suggest that the sharps may have now pushed this line a bit too far.

Sharp Action

Simply comparing opening lines to current ones doesn’t always give away the sharp side. But in a case where the spread moves four points — and through the most important number in football betting — it’s a pretty good indicator. But even still, we’ll look to Sports Insights’ Bet Signals for confirmation.

Sure enough, eight signals, which track and record instances of market movement in caused specifically by sharp action, have been triggered on BYU, explaining the significant move off the opening line.

Sharp Action edge: BYU

Big Money

Making the sharp side even more clear, the 61% of bets that have landed on BYU have generated 80% of actual money hitting the spread. That means bigger bettors are among that 61%.

And while big bets can technically come from anyone, they’re far more likely to come from pros, so a discrepancy such as this one can be used as another sharp indicator.

Big Money edge: BYU

Model Projections

Like the sharps, our model — compiled by Collin Wilson — disagreed with this opening line, setting BYU as a 2.5-point favorite. Now that the market has moved so substantially in response to the sharp action, though, that projection suggests a chance that buyback on Boise State may soon be coming.

Model Projections edge: Boise State

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