The 2025-26 college football season kicks off in two days, which means it's time to put the finishing touches on our portfolios.
Our staff is locked in on six win total bets for the upcoming season, with positions on Michigan, UCLA, Cal, UTSA, Arkansas State and Kent State. Truly a full buffet of options to pick from.
Let's dive into our top college football win totals and NCAAF picks for the 2025 season.
College Football Win Totals for 2025
Bettor | Future |
---|---|
Mike McNamara | |
Greg Liodice | |
Alex Kolodziej | |
Mike Ianniello | |
Joshua Nunn | |
RoadToCFB | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. |
Michigan enters this season with plenty of buzz after ending last season with statement victories over Ohio State and Alabama.
But I’m not buying it. I don’t see the Wolverines doing any better than 8-4.
There are a handful of different reasons why, but let’s start with the fact that Michigan will be starting a true freshman at quarterback.
Bryce Underwood may have all the talent in the world, but it takes time for most freshmen to adjust to playing at the college level.
Underwood will be taking multiple steps up in weight class, and I foresee plenty of growing pains.
Beyond that, Sherrone Moore is completely unproven as a head coach. He will miss the first three games due to suspension, but even when he is back, Moore is still in just his second year as the top man, and it wasn’t exactly smooth sailing a year ago.
I also don’t like the schedule.
The Wolverines play at Oklahoma in non-conference action and have conference road games at Nebraska and USC. I project Michigan as an underdog in all three of those games, and the road trips to Norman and Lincoln fall within the season���s first month.
As for the home schedule, I expect both Wisconsin and Washington to be significantly better than last season. Both will be capable underdogs in Ann Arbor.
Then there’s the season finale against a more talented Ohio State, a game in which the Buckeyes will be out for blood.
That’s six very losable games right there, not even factoring in roadtrips to College Park and Evansto, which will not be guaranteed victories.
Ultimately, the matchups against Ohio State, USC, Oklahoma, and Nebraska are likely losses, which gets you under the total right there. But even if Michigan wins one of those, it would have to be perfect the rest of the way, with challenging games against Wisconsin and Washington.
I’ll take this under at plus money any day of the week, given the significant concerns with this Wolverine team that also lost multiple studs to the NFL on the defensive side of the ball.
Pick: Michigan Under 8.5 Wins (+145 · BetMGM)
By Greg Liodice
This may be a biased pick. I spent the offseason covering UCLA. But the Bruins are capable of winning more than five games.
Last season, they went 5-7 in their first season in the Big Ten with a brand new coach. It almost felt like the program was destined to fail.
They got thrown to the wolves, facing three teams that made the College Football Playoff, as well as LSU, in the first five games.
With a fresh coat of paint and an invigorated head coach in his second season, the Bruins have bigger aspirations. They secured They secured quarterback Nico Iamaleava in the transfer portal after Iamaleava had an ugly departure from Tennessee.
But let us reminisce about how good Iamaleava was last season, shall we?
- Took Tennessee to the College Football Playoff
- 64% completion rate, 2,600 passing yards
- 19 passing touchdowns, five interceptions
He did that all as a first-year SEC starter. He could be a stud in the Big Ten alongside his solid receiving corps.
Look out for Kwazi Gilmer, who amassed 345 receiving yards at 11 yards per catch as a freshman last season. Coach DeShaun Foster was thrilled with his development last season and believes he can take an even bigger step when paired with an elite quarterback.
Pick: UCLA Over 5.5 Wins (+138 · FanDuel)
I don’t think the roster is talented enough to reach a bowl.
Most bettors like to find teams that will outperform market expectations, but Cal is an easy fade candidate.
The Bears lose key players from last year’s roster who may not be adequately valued.
Scrappy quarterback Fernando Mendoza is transferring to Indiana, where the consensus is he’ll keep the Hoosiers running smoothly (I agree). Running back Jaydn Ott heads to Oklahoma. Wide receiver Nyziah Hunter transferred to Nebraska. Tight end Jack Endries took off for Texas.
Last season, Cal excelled thanks to timely takeaways and surprising opponents, but that edge won’t be there in 2025.
Head coach Justin Wilcox is one of the worst in the conference.
Additionally, Cal faces the sixth-longest travel schedule this year. Although the Bears avoid top-tier programs like Clemson and Miami, they face an uphill battle as one of the weaker teams in the ACC.
New quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele won the starting job over Devin Brown and offers more upside. However, he’s still a freshman, and Wilcox is not known for developing quarterbacks.
Cal may win a couple of early games, but I expect them to regress from last year’s 6-6 record, which was driven by players now starring at Power 4 programs.
Pick: Cal Under 5.5 Wins (+108 · FanDuel)
UTSA returns nine starters on offense, led by quarterback Owen McCown, who improved as last season progressed and should be among the best G5 quarterbacks this year.
He’s joined in the backfield by lead back Robert Henry Jr., who returns after a 700-yard season in 2024.
The Roadrunners lost some key skill position talent from last year’s team, but in comes former four-star recruit A’Marion Peterson from USC and former five-star John Emery Jr. from LSU. Emery was the No. 1 running back recruit in the 2019 class, but he never found his footing due to academic issues and two torn ACLs.
Meanwhile, UTSA’s top two receivers, top three tight ends and four of the five starting offensive linemen from last year’s team return. The Roadrunners had a borderline-elite offense last season and should again this year.
The defense won’t be nearly as good after losing a ton of talent to the portal — not a single full-time starter from last year’s team returns.
That said, the Roadrunners have some key depth pieces from last year’s team who could step into bigger roles this year, and they hit the portal hard to patch over the defensive holes.
From a schedule perspective, UTSA should lose against Texas A&M in Week 1, and it’ll be in a shootout against Texas State in Week 2.
However, I suspect the Roadrunners rip off five consecutive wins directly after that (Incarnate Word, Colorado State, Temple, Rice, North Texas).
The stretch gets tougher, but UTSA hosts Tulane, East Carolina and Army at home across the final five weeks — three tough matchups that are luckily in the Alamodome.
Also, I imagine the Roadrunners could pick up at least one road win against Charlotte or South Florida during that end-of-season stretch.
If the defense comes together enough to be league-average, the offense should power UTSA to at least an eight-win season — I think this could be the best team in the conference.
For what it’s worth, Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson projects UTSA's win total at 8.8 this year.
Pick: UTSA Over 7.5 Wins (-115 · BetMGM)
By Joshua Nunn
There may not have been a more fortunate team last year in the Sun Belt Conference than Arkansas State.
A quick review of the postgame win expectancy numbers reveals that the Red Wolves were closer to a four-win team last year than their realized 8-5 mark, and the Red Wolves are now going through a complete revamp in both the offensive and defensive trenches.
The defense was particularly concerning. The Wolves allowed 5.7 yards per carry on the ground, 476 yards per game in conference play, and a 48% third-down conversion rate.
They couldn’t stop anyone, and they’re completely rebuilding the defense via the portal.
On the other side of the ball, quarterback Jaylen Raynor and stud wide receiver Corey Rucker return.
Unfortunately, the offensive line is getting overhauled, with four starters from last year’s squad being replaced. I’m not confident that the group will come together quickly enough to protect Raynor and keep the offense in rhythm.
The schedule is also challenging.
The Red Wolves have Arkansas and Iowa State in back-to-back weeks in nonconference action. The conference schedule has Texas State, Georgia Southern, Southern Miss, and Louisiana coming to Jonesboro.
This means that all of the truly winnable games in conference play are road tests. Three of those travel spots will feature Arkansas State facing teams seeking revenge.
I have Arkansas State favored in three games this season, and for the Red Wolves to go bowling in 2025, they likely need five road wins. Not something I would want to bet on, especially with how that defensive stop unit is projected to play.
Pick: Arkansas State Under 5.5 Wins (-155 · bet365)
By Road To CFB
Last year’s Kent State Golden Flashes team was historically bad.
They might be worse this year.
I have the Golden Flashes rated a touchdown worse than the 135th-rated FBS team, behind 50 FCS programs.
The Flashes are breaking in a new head coach, elevating former offensive coordinator Mark Carney to interim head coach. He hired two brand-new coordinators in July.
The Flashes have two months for brand new coordinators to build chemistry with another historically bad roster.
The 1.5-game conference win total is derived from Kent State catching all three of the conference’s bottom-dwellers in Akron, Ball State and UMass. Between those three, I forecast less than one win (about 0.9), given I project them with an expected win rate under 36% in each matchup.
All of these factors play into what I believe is an excellent bet, and I didn’t even really touch on the roster.
Pick: Kent State Under 1.5 Conference Wins (+140 · bet365)