I'm getting a play in early, and you really have to have some intestinal fortitude to lock in a college football bet this early in the offseason, especially when it concerns Temple and UMass.
The Owls and Minutemen meet on Aug. 30, and Temple enters as a -1.5 favorite with the over/under sitting at 52.5 total points.
Let's dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for this early Week 1 game.
Temple vs UMass Pick
| Temple Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
Temple brings in K.C. Keeler to lead the charge after several disappointing 3-9 seasons led to the dismissal of Stan Drayton during the 2024 campaign.
Keeler had an abundance of success at Sam Houston and saw his Bearkats win an FCS national title before a successful transition to the FBS level.
The Bearkats hung their hat on defense, sporting a unit that consistently applied pressure to opposing Conference USA quarterbacks while limiting explosives and defending well against the pass.
Keeler is a tough-nosed, no-nonsense coach who will immediately attempt to reinvigorate a “Temple Tough” attitude in his football team.
I'm excited about the hire of defensive coordinator Brian L. Smith, who comes over after six seasons with Rice. Smith turned around the Rice defense with consistent improvement in preventing run explosives and defending the pass.
The 2024 Rice secondary allowed completions on just 55% of attempts and graded out very respectably in most aggregate PDR ratings at season’s end.
Offensive coordinator Tyler Walker comes over after a successful 2024 season at Montana State. The Bobcats were an elite offensive unit at the FCS level with exceptional talent that consistently outclassed the Big Sky opponents they faced each week.
That style of offense is scheduled to be adopted here at Temple — and that's a big key. This is a run-oriented, power football offense designed to feature a bellcow tailback while also running the quarterback by design.
Walker’s Montana State offense operated at an exceptionally slow pace of 30.5 seconds between plays while running the ball 68.7% of the time. I'd expect multi-back sets with one or two tight ends and a commitment to running the football — something Temple was terrible at under the previous regime.
On the other side, UMass brings in a new head coach this season in Joe Harasymiak, a defensive-minded former DC at Minnesota and Rutgers.
DC Jared Keyte was an assistant under Harasymiak nearly every step of the way. This new bunch will look to quickly turn around a UMass defense that struggled to create Havoc in the backfield and consistently apply pressure to opposing quarterbacks.
The safeties are experienced, and two Power 4 cornerbacks transfer in to shore up an already respectable pass coverage unit. However, running on this front seven will look much easier after diving into the metrics.
Offensively, UMass will turn to new OC Mike Bajakian, who was most recently the interim OC at Utah and served as the OC at Northwestern before that. Those Wildcat offenses looked stagnant, predictable and underwhelming.
I would expect a similar deployment of the call sheet here, especially early in the season when this bunch is getting their footing under them.
Bajakian’s Northwestern offenses ran at a 25-second pace and ran the ball nearly 55% of the time. UMass struggled to protect its quarterbacks last season, surrendering 30 sacks and 74 tackles for loss.
This group brings in Rocko Griffin from UTSA as the featured tailback, along with former Colorado running back Brandon Hood, who never saw the field during his tenure there.
The quarterback battle won't be decided until deep into fall camp, but Grant Jordan comes in from Yale, where he tore up the Ivy League with a 22:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 1,938 passing yards last season. (The Ivy League only plays a 10-game season.)
At Yale, he got accustomed to shorter pass routes, but he still consistently bailed from the pocket early and took off with his legs. He accumulated 360 rushing yards for Yale last season.
I would imagine both coaches want to get a good barometer of what they have along the offensive line, and we should see a heavy dose of run action here.
Both OCs are run-oriented and operate at a slow tempo. These staffs are also conservative in nature, which usually results in a punt on fourth-and-1 or a field goal attempt on fourth and goal.
When it comes ot betting college football totals, 51 and 52 are key numbers, and I would assuredly want a number at 51 or higher to necessitate a play on this one.
There's a 52.5 available at BetMGM as of writing, as well as a couple of 52s floating around, making this an official play for me. I would play that down to 51.5.
Pick: Under 52.5 (Play to 51.5)
