College Football Sharp Report: Wiseguys Betting 3 Saturday Bowl Games
Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Appalachian State Mountaineers quarterback Zac Thomas
- Before placing your bets for the first day of bowl season, you might want to know which bets sharps are making.
- Sharps are bettors with long track records of consistent success.
- Their favorite Saturday plays include a bet on the North Texas-Utah State point spread.
We made it. Bowl season is finally here. And while that may mean fewer games to bet on Saturday, there will still be excitement aplenty (I hope).
For experienced gamblers, one advantage is the rush of casual bettors who will come out of the woodwork to bet on college football.
Recreational bettors are typically focused on factors like records, rankings, and against-the-spread performance — none of which actually lead to profitable bets.
Because of that, this time of year is among the best to bet against the public.
Unfortunately, betting strictly based off contrarianism will probably have to wait until after the first weekend. No bowl game participant is receiving less than 35% of bets to this point.
As for the sharps, well, they might be able to help us out a little bit. And I stress, alittle bit.
A few of Saturday's five bowl games have seen some significant line movement, but with that movement often moving to the popular side, it's been a little tougher to gauge which, if any, sides sharps are playing.
Some games have drawn smart money to both sides, and some have seen little to no wiseguy activity at all.
There is one matchup where sharps have made their opinion clear, however, so let's start there.
But first, a few vocab words to bring you back to the SAT prep days.
Betting Terms to Know
Sharp (bettor): A bettor with a long track record (years, decades) of success. Sharps have the ability to shift lines when they bet on games.
Steam move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse line movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
New Mexico Bowl: North Texas vs. Utah State
2 p.m. ET | ESPN | Albuquerque, N.M.
Sharp angle: North Texas (moved from +11 to +7.5)
Sure, North Texas may be drawing the majority of bets in this game, but 54% of tickets isn't dropping a line by more than three points if it's made up of bets by Joe down the street.
Instead, it has been sharps among that 54% who have caused oddsmakers to significantly shift this number.
Two Sports Insights Bet Signals — in the form of steam moves — have hit North Texas since opening, indicating at least two instances of sudden, market-wide line movement caused by sharp action.
On top of that, the 54% of bettors behind North Texas have generated 72% of the actual money being wagered on the matchup. That means bigger bets — the ones more likely to be made by sharps — are taking the points.
Together, those factors have put too much liability on North Texas, causing oddsmakers to lower the spread in an attempt to draw Utah State bets.
Camellia Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
5:30 p.m. ET | ESPN | Montgomery, Ala.
Sharp angle: Georgia Southern (moved from PK to -3)
As I mentioned, the sharp action that has hit Saturday's slate thus far hasn't been as clear as what we'd find during a typical regular season slate of games.
Both this and the next bowl listed on the report have seen either a hint of sharp action, or action to both sides. This one fits the latter of those descriptions.
As was the case with North Texas, Georgia Southern has drawn a majority of bets (59%), a higher percentage of dollars (72%) and had the line move in its direction since opening.
Also like UNT, Georgia Southern has triggered two Sports Insights Bet Signals.
In this case, though, the opposing side has drawn two signals of its own, which makes it important to check when the sharp moves actually took place.
Both signals on Eastern Michigan came 10 days ago when the line was still listed at a pick'em.
If wiseguys really did like EMU at that number, why have none of them caused a line move since then, especially now that they can grab a free field goal?
The most recent Georgia Southern steam move, on the other hand, came at -1.5, which, combined with the bets vs. money discrepancy and overall line movement, suggests a bit more sharp activity on the favorite.
New Orleans Bowl: Middle Tennessee State vs. Appalachian State
9 p.m. ET | ESPN | New Orleans, La.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 50.5 to 47.5)
Most bettors are in agreement on this total. Sixty percent have placed their bets on the under, and the total has dropped three points from its opening number.
As with the games above, the line movement toward the public side can make it difficult to confirm just how sharp a play is, but there are a few indications leading to a conclusion that the line move is a result of sharp action.
Two Sports Insights Bet Signals have hit the under, the most recent of which occurred on Thursday with a listed total of 50, and played a major role in the line fall.
No signals have landed on the over.
On top of that, like the other plays listed, the under has attracted a higher percentage of money than bets. In this case, the 60% of bets have accounted for 83% of dollars, meaning the bigger, probably sharper, bettors are expecting a low-scoring game.
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