Wilson: Projecting Week 13 College Football Over/Unders

Wilson: Projecting Week 13 College Football Over/Unders article feature image

Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sam Ehlinger

  • Collin Wilson uses his metrics to project college football over/unders for Week 13.
  • Factors like weather and pace can affect totals and cause significant movement on these numbers early in the week.
  • Use these projections to find betting value when sportsbooks release these over/unders.

College football over/unders are released early in the week and can see heavy movement because of weather, injury or scheme. This column serves as your first look at the projected totals for Week 13’s college football matchups.

These numbers are based on a mathematical projection of yards per play, plays per game, adjusted pace and efficiency. The Action Network Power Ratings, which can be used to create point spreads, can be found here.

When the totals are released, I’ll compare my over/unders to what oddsmakers have posted to find betting value before the odds move.

Discrepancies in weather, injuries and standard passing down/run rate are all factors when investing in a total.

Be sure to follow me on The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.

College Football Week 13 Over/Under Projections

Notes on Pace, Injury, and Weather

Nebraska at Iowa

Projected Total: 54.5

Iowa is coming off a 63-0 drubbing of Illinois that included three touchdowns through the air and four on the ground. In comes Nebraska, which surprisingly supports the 24th ranked S&P+ offense in passing downs.

Conversely, the Cornhuskers defense is 101st in passing downs and 105th against rushing explosiveness. Both teams have below national average run rates in standard and passing downs, and could surprisingly put up more points than expected.

Oregon at Oregon State

Projected Total: 51

Here is a rivalry where points are the norm, with the over hitting in 13 of the past 16 meetings. Oregon is 14th in adjusted pace accompanied by a ranking of 102nd in passing downs run rate.

Similarly, Oregon State is 33rd in adjusted pace and 110th in passing downs run rate. Neither team is good at defending the explosive play, which should lead to plenty of points.

Texas at Kansas

Projected Total: 50.5

Keep an eye on mother nature, as this game could be wet and windy with a 50% chance of precipitation and 15-plus mph winds that move sideline to sideline. The passing and kicking game for both the Longhorns and Jayhawks may be affected. This series has gone under the total in the last five games in Lawrence.

Tennessee at Vanderbilt

Projected Total: 47

This game matches up two of the slowest-paced teams in the nation. Vanderbilt ranks 123rd in adjusted pace, while Tennessee is 122nd in the same metric.

This game has gone under the total in five of the last six in Nashville. Both teams can contain explosiveness as well, with Vanderbilt 31st and Tennessee 41st in overall defensive IsoPPP.

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