Wilson: Projecting Week 13 College Football Over/Unders

Nov 19, 2018 10:50 AM EST
Credit:

Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sam Ehlinger

  • Collin Wilson uses his metrics to project college football over/unders for Week 13.
  • Factors like weather and pace can affect totals and cause significant movement on these numbers early in the week.
  • Use these projections to find betting value when sportsbooks release these over/unders.

College football over/unders are released early in the week and can see heavy movement because of weather, injury or scheme. This column serves as your first look at the projected totals for Week 13’s college football matchups.

These numbers are based on a mathematical projection of yards per play, plays per game, adjusted pace and efficiency. The Action Network Power Ratings, which can be used to create point spreads, can be found here.

When the totals are released, I’ll compare my over/unders to what oddsmakers have posted to find betting value before the odds move.

Discrepancies in weather, injuries and standard passing down/run rate are all factors when investing in a total.

Be sure to follow me on The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.


College Football Week 13 Over/Under Projections

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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