Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State Odds & Pick: Can Eagles Get Option Offense Going in Rain?
Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Josh Thomas
- Odds for Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State have dropped this week amidst reports of rain, wind and possibly snow hitting Boone, N.C. during Thursday night's game (8 p.m. ET, ESPNU).
- Just a year ago, GSU stunned App State as a 10-point underdog, winning 34-14 to move to 7-1. The Eagles finished with 10 wins, but have done nothing to build on that excellent campaign, and the offense is regressing
- See if our experts think Georgia Southern can keep the score within a big point spread against Appalachian State.
Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State Odds
- Odds: App State -14.5
- Over/Under: 44
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPNU
Odds as of Wednesday night and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Last year, 6-1 Georgia Southern hosted Appalachian State as a 10-point underdog and blew out the Mountaineers 34-14.
But the Eagles have not built on their impressive 10-win season from 2018. In fact, they’re going backwards.
Will steady-as-ever Appalachian State take care of business on Thursday night in wet, windy Boone, or will Georgia Southern keep things close with its slow, option pace?
How Odds Have Moved
Both the spread and total have taken a dive since opening, and both line moves have come against the popular side. App State has seen 63% of bets and 64% of the money being wagered on the spread, but has fallen from -18 to -15, and even -14.5 in several spots.
The movement on the total has had a bit more to do with money distribution and weather, as it’s fallen from 50 to 44.5 on 45% of bets and 83% of money to the under, as well as some ugly forecasted weather. — Danny Donahue
Weather Report: Not Great
PJ Walsh covered the weather for this game in-depth earlier in the week. Read the updated version here.
As an App State alum, I know where to go when it comes to forecasts for Boone, N.C., which is a tricky place to accurately predict weather due to its mountain location.
Per Booneweather.com, the site all locals use, temperatures will dip into the 30s on Thursday night, including 15-25 winds and gusts up to 50 mph!
I’ve spent plenty of evenings at Kidd Brewer Stadium in similar weather, and let me tell you, there aren’t enough airplane bottles in the world — or “nips” as I’ve learned they’re referred to in New England — to stop those chilly breezes from cutting through to your bones. — PJ Walsh
Wilson: My Pick on GSU-App State
The point spread and total are both dropping thanks to Mother Nature.
Boone, North Carolina is forecasted to have heavy rains, lightning and winds between 10 and 15 mph. That kind of weather favors a triple option team with an inefficient defense over a highly efficient offense with defensive issues against the rush.
Even as Georgia Southern has had issues with the effectiveness of its triple option this season, the Eagles still rely on clock control and limiting possessions.
A quick look at Appalachian State’s defensive front seven stats show that Georgia Southern may have some success. The Mountaineers rank 53rd in defensive Stuff Rate, a metric that gauges the percentage of carries by running backs that are stopped at or before the line of scrimmage.
Georgia Southern ranks as one of the best offensive teams in Power Success, meaning there will be plenty of long drives with third and fourth down conversions.
Our Action Network projections make this game Appalachian State -17 with a total of 48. The weather will take Appalachian State’s advantage away in passing success and explosiveness.
The Mountaineers are No. 7 in rush explosiveness, but the Eagles are 28th defensively in the same category.
My plan of action is to keep tabs on the forecast, specifically any radar for the local Boone area. If this is scattered rain and lightning, there could be delays and game play would only take place in a possible clear environment.
If this is a complete downpour with no chance of lightning delays, then Georgia Southern should keep this game close. — Collin Wilson
Pick: Georgia Southern +14.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]