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Heisman Odds Watch: Georgia Candidates Take Hits After Week 5

Oct 01, 2018 4:07 PM EDT

Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Jake Fromm (11) hands off to running back D’Andre Swift (7) during the first half at Williams-Brice Stadium

  • Following Week 5 of the college football season, Westgate has updated its Heisman Trophy odds.
  • Will Grier was the only player to make a big jump, but a group of players saw their odds fall significantly.

As was the case last week, most Heisman odds changes from the past weekend were in the negative direction. Only West Virginia’s Will Grier saw an implied probability increase of more than 5%.

Two of Georgia’s top candidates are the notable fallers on the list. Even though the Bulldogs won on Saturday, odds for both their quarterback and one of their running backs fell from +5000 to +10000.

Here are the updated odds at Westgate following Week 5.

Biggest Risers

Will Grier (QB, West Virginia): +600 to +400 (14.29% to 20% implied probability)

Week 5 @ Texas Tech: 27 for 41, 370 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT

Will Grier joined the +400 club with his performance against Texas Tech on Saturday. He’s third in the FBS in passing touchdowns and ranks tied for third in yards per attempt.

Biggest Fallers

Jonathan Taylor (RB, Wisconsin): +1500 to +2000 (6.25% to 4.76% implied probability)

Week 5: Bye

Even though the Badgers didn’t play on Saturday, Taylor’s Heisman odds still managed to fall. He’s now tied with UCF’s McKenzie Milton at 20-1.

AJ Dillon (RB, Boston College): +3000 to +5000 (3.23% to 1.96%)

Week 5 vs. Temple: 161 yards on 28 attempts, 2 TD

Dillon actually put up some pretty good numbers on Saturday, but his odds don’t reflect that. He’s fallen from +1200 to +5000 over the past two weeks, and is now the 10th most likely player to win the award.

Jake Fromm (QB, Georgia): +5000 to +10000 (1.96% to 0.99% implied probability)

Week 5 vs. Tennessee: 16 for 22, 185 yards, 0TD, 0 INT

Fromm wasn’t able to take advantage of one of the easiest SEC matchups on Georgia’s schedule. Although he didn’t throw a pick, he was unable to reach the 200-yard mark, and didn’t account for any touchdowns.

D’Andre Swift (RB, Georgia): +5000 to +10000 (1.96% to 0.99% implied probability)

Week 5 vs. Tennessee: 50 yards on 12 attempts, 2 TD

Like those of his quarterback, Swift’s Heisman chances were cut in half this week. He scored twice, but racked up only 50 yards on the ground and now ranks as the 13th most likely player to win the award.

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