Ole Miss at Vanderbilt Betting Odds & Pick: Betting Value Comes On Over/Under
Frederick Breedon/Getty Images. Pictured: Dayo Odeyingbo.
- Lane Kiffin and the Ole Miss Rebels will travel to Nashville as heavy favorites to take on Derek Mason and the Vanderbilt Commodores.
- Will the Ole Miss offense find a way to cover the spread against one of the SEC's worst teams?
- Patrick Strollo explains how he's playing this game.
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt Odds
|Ole Miss Odds||-17.5 [BET NOW]|
|Vanderbilt Odds||+17.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-1000/+525 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||63 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Saturday, 4 p.m. ET|
The Ole Miss Rebels (1-4) will travel to Nashville to square off against the Vanderbilt Commodores (0-3) for a Saturday afternoon Halloween showdown. These teams have faced each other 94 times dating back to 1894 with Ole Miss leading the all-time series, 50-40-2. The Rebels and Commodores have faced each other annually since 1970, now competing as cross-division SEC rivals.
Ole Miss will look to use its high-powered offense to avenge a series of disappointing losses in recent weeks. The Rebels draw an exploitable matchup against Vanderbilt, which is coming off of a two-week lull due to a COVID-19 postponement and a bye.
Look for the Rebels to roll in Nashville as the Commodores try to get back on their feet without a full-strength roster.
Ole Miss Rebels
The Rebels will look to continue their offensive success this season behind sophomore QB Matt Corral, who ranks 11th in FBS in total passing yards. Bolstering Corral’s efforts are two running backs in Jerrion Ealy and Snoop Conner, who average 5.0 and 4.5 yards per carry, respectively.
Ole Miss ranks second in the SEC in total offense, averaging 521 yards per game. That mark is well above the conference average of 405 yards per game and is second only to Alabama’s 566 yards per game.
The Rebels’ Offensive Predicted Points Added (PPA) per play is 0.21, which is better than the SEC average of 0.17. Their offensive Havoc rate is 0.15, better than the conference average that sits at 0.17. Ole Miss is averaging nearly 35 points per game, which ranks fourth in the SEC and sits above the SEC average of 28.7.
The Rebels will be returning two defensive starters from COVID-19 isolation this Saturday, which should help offset what has been one of the weakest defenses in the SEC.
The Rebels are ranked 100th in total defense in FBS, allowing 556 yards per game. They are last in the SEC in terms of defensive PPA per play at 0.44, well above the SEC average of 0.17. The Rebels generate the least defensive Havoc in the SEC at 0.12, worse than the conference’s average of 0.17. The Rebels’ schedule — which ranks seventh in the FBS based on ESPN’s SOS — could mitigate some of their defensive concerns.
Vandy is looking for its first conference win this season after a strong SEC debut against Texas A&M earlier in the season in which it held A&M to 17 points.
The Commodores have been battling COVID-19 off the gridiron, being forced to postpone their matchup against Missouri two weeks ago due to a lack of available scholarship athletes. On Monday night, Vandy head coach Derek Mason said that he currently has enough players to play the game on Saturday after the bye week but strongly iterated that his team will absolutely not be at full strength. This is subject to additional COVID-19 testing throughout the week, which could deal further blows to the roster.
The Commodores are in a tough spot given preseason opt-outs and COVID-19 diagnoses. Additionally, positive COVID-19 tests hit a semester-high this week at Vandy with a 1.54% positivity rate amongst the student body. It’s possible that these virus trends could negatively impact scholarship athlete participation this week.
Vanderbilt’s true freshman quarterback, Ken Seals, will face a tall order in putting up enough points to hang with Ole Miss. Seals ranks 82nd nationally in passing yards. The running back stable for Vandy has had slightly more success, averaging 2.93 yards per carry.
The Commodores are in last place in the SEC offensively, having averaged only 256 yards per game against the conference average of 405. The Commodores’ offensive PPA per play is -0.06, and their offensive Havoc rate sits at 0.24. Both come in below the SEC averages of 0.17 and 0.17, respectively. All of this results in eight points per game. That mark is unsurprisingly the lowest in the conference, and it falls far below the SEC average of 28.7.
Defensively, the statistics improve for the Commodores, but they’re still not great. They are ranked 77th in total defense, allowing 451.7 yards per game. The defense allows 0.33 Predicted Points Added per play, which is second-to-last in SEC, only behind Ole Miss and above the SEC average of 0.17. The squad generates a total defensive Havoc of 0.145, putting it below the conference average of 0.17.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The Rebels head into Saturday averaging 35 points per game and feeling slighted after a series of tough breaks in the recent weeks.
They return two isolating defensive starters, while the Commodores continue to deal with COVID-19 problems.
The anemic Vanderbilt offense doesn’t look primed to put up big numbers this weekend, whereas the Ole Miss offense is one of the best in FBS. On the other side of the ball, I expect the Rebels to hold Vandy under 14 points in this contest as they turn to the run the game once a lead is established.
Pick: Under 64.5 (down to 61.5); Live bet Ole Miss at anything better than -10