Oregon-Michigan State Betting Guide: Elite Defense vs. Elite QB in Redbox Bowl

2018 Redbox Bowl Betting Odds: Oregon-Michigan State

• Odds: Oregon -2.5
• Over/Under: 48
• Date: Monday, Dec. 31
• Location: Santa Clara, Calif.
• Time: 3 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

Regardless of what happens in the Redbox Bowl, Oregon is thrilled to have quarterback Justin Herbert returning for the 2019 season. He was expected to be the first quarterback off the board in the NFL Draft.

Monday, he'll face a stingy Michigan State defense that's caused problems for the Big Ten's best quarterbacks all season.

Odds Moves for Oregon-Michigan State

By Danny Donahue

Oregon has been the more popular side in the Redbox Bowl, and the overall line movement has reflected that, as the Ducks have gone from -1.5 to -2.5. The latest move, however, has come in the direction of Michigan State, which has fallen from +3 to +2.5 behind 50% of dollars on just 42% of bets.

The total has yet to move from its opener of 48 despite 79% of money hitting the under. That majority has come from just 47% of bets.

Trends to Know

By Evan Abrams

— Michigan State was a disappointing 4-8 against the spread in the regular season, which helps explain why the majority of spread tickets are on Oregon. But teams that covered the spread in 33% or less of their games, like the Spartans, have gone 39-27-1 ATS in bowl games since 2005.

— Michigan State has struggled to score all season long and have only seen the end zone a few times in the last three games. Michigan State has scored 14 points or fewer in its last three games entering their bowl game, becoming just the fourth team to do that since 2005. The previous three teams in this spot won and covered the spread, with two of those three teams doing so as an underdog.

— Nobody knows how to shut down a prolific offense quite like Mark D’Antonio. The last time we saw Oregon, the Ducks were throttling their in-state rival, Oregon State, 55-15.

Since D’Antonio arrived in East Lansing in 2007, Michigan State is 31-19-1 ATS (62%) when facing a team that scored 35 points or more in its previous game, covering the spread by 3.4 PPG, profiting bettors 10.5 units.

In this spot, D’Antonio is the most profitable coach in the country, with only Gary Anderson profiting bettors 10 units or more.

Michigan State Defense Stood Tall vs. Good Offenses

By Steve Petrella

The Spartans defense had some clunkers in the beginning of the season, but really got things right when it mattered late in the year against quality offenses.

• at Penn State: 6.0 yards per pass, 21 points
• vs. Michigan: 8.48 ypp. 21 points
• vs. Purdue: 5.65 ypp, 13 points
• vs. Ohio State: 5.88 ypp, 26 points

Of course, the offense took some major steps back in part due to injuries at quarterback and on the offensive line.

Lewerke to Start at QB

By Steve Petrella

After he nursed a shoulder injury for the final few weeks of the season, Brian Lewerke will start at quarterback against Oregon. His numbers weren't impressive at all this season — 6.2 yards per attempt, 54.2 completion percentage — but Rocky Lombardi was worse.

D'Antonio said Lewerke was missing a lot of arm strength because of the injury, and that's returned with time off.

Special Teams Edge to Sparty

By Steve Petrella

Oregon was pretty dreadful on special teams this year, especially in the kicking department. Two kickers combined to go just 6-of-11 this season. Michigan State's Matt Coghlin went 16-of-19.

Who Did Oregon Beat?

By Steve Petrella

That's a great question. Here's who Oregon beat, and their S&P+ rank (out of 130):

• Bowling Green: 127
• Portland State: N/A (FCS team)
• San Jose State: 125
• Cal: 64
• Washington: 9
• UCLA: 91
• Arizona State: 54
• Oregon State: 123

The Ducks got by Washington on a Huskies' missed field goal, and beat middling Pac-12 teams in Cal, ASU and UCLA that have major flaws (did you watch Cal in the Cheez-It Bowl?).

Oregon: Jack of All Trades, Master of None

By Steve Petrella

If you look over Oregon's statistical profile, nothing really stands out in either direction. The Ducks are 57th in S&P+ rushing on offense and 64th on defense. They're 39th in passing offense and 77th in passing defense.

They don't rank inside the top 15 or outside the top 90 in any of the four factors (efficiency, explosiveness, field position and finishing drives).

Michigan State, on the other hand, is all or nothing. The Spartans' offensive ranks are abysmal, while their defensive ones are among the best in the country.

This is all to say that if you value balance, you may be more comfortable backing Oregon.

Bet to Watch

By Collin Wilson

How good is the Michigan State rush defense? The Spartans allowed three touchdowns to Utah State in the opener before allowing just five for the remainder of the season. They allowed 2.67 yards per carry, which ranks second nationally. That's been the lynchpin of this team all season.

While Lewerke struggled with injuries at quarterback, the Michigan State defense went second against the rush and fourth in passing downs in S&P+ rankings. For all the praise on defense, the Michigan State offense scored just 26 total points in its final three games.

For Oregon, all signs indicate Justin Herbert will play after he announced he'd forgo the NFL Draft and return to school. The Ducks offensively are 11th in passing downs as Herbert went for almost 3,000 yards on the season with a 28-8 touchdown to interception ratio.

The difference in this game may be the health of the Michigan State offense. Both Lewerke and running back LJ Scott dealt with injuries that kept the Spartans off the board offensively. That's because I trust MSU to get it done on defense, regardless of opponent.

Purdue presented a similar S&P+ overall and offensive passing rank that Oregon does. The Spartans came away with three interceptions and limited the Boilermakers to a season low 17% on passing downs.

Head coach Mark D'Antonio has won five straight bowls not in the College Football Playoff, as Michigan State was blanked in the 2015 Cotton Bowl semifinal against Alabama.

Back Michigan State, even with Herbert in the fold for Oregon.

Collin's Pick: Michigan State +2.5