The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus, Ohio, on Saturday, Nov. 1. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on FOX.
Ohio State is favored by 20.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1600. Penn State, meanwhile, comes into this game as a +20.5 underdog and is +900 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 43.5 total points.
Here’s my Penn State vs. Ohio State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
Penn State vs Ohio State Prediction
- Penn State vs. Ohio State Pick: Ohio State 1H Team Total Over 16.5
My Ohio State vs. Penn State best bet is on the Buckeyes to surpass their first-half team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Penn State vs Ohio State Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +900 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -1600 |
- Penn State vs Ohio State point spread: Ohio State -20.5, Penn State +20.5
- Penn State vs Ohio State over/under: 43.5 Points
- Penn State vs Ohio State moneyline: Penn State +900, Ohio State -1600
Penn State vs Ohio State College Football Betting Preview
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview: Looking to Bounce Back
Penn State enters the rest of its football season $49M lighter. Under interim Terry Smith (a PSU alum and decade-long staffer), the Nittany Lions went to Kinnick Stadium and nearly stole a win from Iowa on the road.
That loss dropped PSU to 0-4 since its bye week and 0-4 in Big Ten play.
Quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer has taken over for Drew Allar, who suffered a season-ending injury against Northwestern.
Grunkemeyer, a redshirt freshman, didn't take a sack but did toss a pair of interceptions against Iowa in his starting debut. He was unable to generate much on the ground, which is a strength Grunkemeyer has in common with former backup Beau Pribula (now at Missouri).
Penn State's dynamic duo of running backs, Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton, has been about as quiet as it gets. Allen now takes the majority of snaps over Singleton and has outgained him, 612-274, on the season.
The offensive line hasn't generated a huge push up front in Big Ten play, but an increased reliance on the passing game has resulted in Penn State's biggest strength becoming somewhat nerfed.
The other blow to this season has been the underwhelming production from the defense led by Jim Knowles. Reports came out about defensive backs complaining about the complexity of the system; we saw this setup in Columbus, too, where it took two seasons for Knowles' defense to really take shape.
Linebacker Tony Rojas remains out of the lineup and will remain so "indefinitely" as of Oct. 1. That's a big loss for the Nittany Lions up front.
Penn State still rosters one of the country's premier secondaries. But against top-flight competition, particularly game-breaking quarterbacks like Dante Moore and — checks notes — Nico Iamaleava, the secondary can have holes poked through it.
Left on the schedule are some of the better quarterbacks in the country, a couple of added mobile ones and elite pass-catchers.
After Ohio State, Penn State plays Indiana (home), Michigan State (away), Nebraska (home) and Rutgers (away). I'd look for some of these defense metrics to decline in that stretch.
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview: Rolling With It
While debates continue among college football media giants about whether there are actually any good teams in the country, Ohio State continues to roll its competition.
Before the bye week, Ryan Day dialed up 40 passes for quarterback Julian Sayin in a 34-0 win at Wisconsin. It was also an audition for receiver Carnell Tate, who boosted his draft stock after looking like a first-round NFL receiver in that game.
Sayin continues to be among the country's most accurate quarterbacks. His ball placement and decision-making are matched by maybe one or two others, and that's it.
Despite having an array of other Heisman-caliber players on his own roster (i.e. Jeremiah Smith), Sayin climbed the Heisman odds board to now be well within consideration. If someone doesn't consider Sayin an elite talent, they probably haven't been watching.
Defensive back Lorenzo Styles Jr. figures to return after missing the last two games to injury. Styles was available for Wisconsin and dressed but did not play as a precaution.
Caleb Downs owned the preseason headlines as the top defensive player on this roster (and possibly the country), but it's been linebacker Arvell Reese and pass rusher Caden Curry who've risen to top prominence.
Reese is a lab-grown linebacker who has yet to find a lineman capable of removing him from the game plan.
Penn State's offensive line will provide some of the most resistance this ferocious front seven has seen to date. Through nine weeks, defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has been able to rush minimal players with a lot of success.
This week, we could see him dial up more pressure against an inexperienced quarterback. Oregon found a way to generate pressure on Allar, but nobody else has gotten home to the QB with frequent success.
Ohio State comes off its second bye week in excellent position to make the Big Ten Championship game.
Ahead lies Penn State (a much different game than anticipated preseason), then UCLA (home), Rutgers (home) and finally at Michigan — a game that matters more than almost any other in the last half-decade of Ohio State football.
Penn State vs Ohio State Pick, Betting Analysis
No more sleepy starts for the World Famous Buckeyes. In each of its last three games, Ohio State surpassed its first-half team total thanks to a more aggressive offense that's opened up under Sayin.
Quicker starts were the focus of the first bye week, per Day, and that turnaround is evident.
The interim bump came and went quickly when Penn State dropped a lead to Iowa at Kinnick and lost, 25-24.
James Franklin or no James Franklin, the bitter rivalry between Penn State and Ohio State continues. The potential for an interim bump should have subsided after watching teams like Penn State fall to UCLA under it.
Don't expect Ohio State to come out underprepared at home.
Positives for Smith include (a) being at Penn State since 2014 and understanding the Ohio State rivalry (though Penn State is 1-10 outright in that stretch), and (b) no players hit the transfer portal following Franklin's departure.
When playing anybody else in the country besides Michigan, Day is an excellent situational coach. He makes effective in-game adjustments and almost always puts the Buckeyes in the best possible position to not just win, but to do it with authority.
Knowles knows the Buckeyes offense. He spent the last three years in Columbus, and with the way things ended, Knowles is likely looking for a get-back opportunity here.
But with a bye week ahead of this game, I anticipate that Day and offensive coordinator Brian Hartline come out with multiple wrinkles to the game plan early.
Letting Penn State hang around is a dangerous game. I don't expect Day to play coy and let the Nittany Lions hang around after the starting kickoff.
I'm choosing to back Ohio State again in the first half as it continues to get the ball to its playmakers earlier and more frequently.
Pick: Ohio State 1H Team Total Over 16.5 (Play to 17)
Penn State vs Ohio State Betting Trends
