The James Madison slander has gotten out of control.
Pundits like ESPN’s Paul Finebaum want to “get rid of the G5 schools” altogether when it comes to the College Football Playoff. On “Get Up,” Finebaum unloaded the clip on the Group of Five, saying, “I don’t really care about Tulane or James Madison. They’re both going to lose by 25 to 45 points; they’ll be unwatchable games.”
Well, I don't think that's necessarily true. In fact, I'm backing the Dukes against Oregon in the first round.
With that said, let's take a look at my College Football Playoff picks and NCAAF predictions for James Madison vs. Oregon in the CFP first round below.
James Madison vs Oregon Odds
| James Madison Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21.5 -112 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | +1100 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21.5 -108 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | -2400 |
I love the Dukes plus the points for three main reasons: coaching, run defense and pace.
Let’s start with head coach Bob Chesney. He’ll be coaching UCLA next season in the Big Ten because he’s won everywhere he has been.
Not only that, but he hasn’t lost a game by more than three touchdowns since Oct. 2, 2021. That’s 58 straight games without suffering a blowout loss. In that time, his record was 47-11 straight up, and his average margin of defeat in those 11 losses was just 8.3 points per game.
Still not convinced he’s elite? Let’s take a look at when he “punched up.”
Dating back to 2021, Chesney led FCS Holy Cross and James Madison out on the field against ranked FCS opponents and Power 4 FBS competition six times. His against-the-spread record in those six games comes in at 5-1 with two straight-up wins.
Now, without question, Oregon is an elite team, with the fifth-highest Blue-Chip Ratio (BCR) in college football. Bud Elliott’s BCR lists the teams that have the highest concentration of four or five-star recruits on their roster.
The last 14 national champions have all had a BCR ratio north of 50%, with the average BCR of the national champion coming in at 70%. Oregon’s BCR for this season is 78%.
If you look at Oregon’s season-long stats, all that talent has translated into very specific success on the field.
Oregon boasts an elite offensive line that wins in the trenches, which is borne out in its Rushing Success Rate (7th) and pass blocking grade, per PFF (1st).
And defensively, the Ducks' secondary is elite. Their defensive backs have helped them achieve a top-15 ranking in everything from PFF coverage grade and Passing Success Rate allowed to opponent QB Rating and passing yards allowed per game.
On the season, Oregon finished 8-4 against the spread, routinely throttling lesser opponents like Montana State, Oklahoma State, Oregon State and Minnesota.
But when you dig into those box scores, you’ll find one common theme — Oregon’s success, or lack thereof, on the ground.
When Oregon covered this season, it averaged 237.5 yards per game on the ground at a 6.1 yards-per-carry clip. In the Ducks’ four ATS losses, those numbers shrank to 180.3 YPG and 5.1 YPC.
James Madison may have the best run defense to ever compete at the G5 level. The Dukes allowed less than eight feet per carry (2.48 yards), and just 76.2 yards per game on the ground.
They rank second in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards, while also owning a ranking of fifth in Stuff Rate. They also generated 378 negative yards (8th) with sacks and tackles for loss.
This front is simply fantastic. If they hold their own and limit explosives against a bigger, more athletic Oregon offensive line, they’ll hang around in a four-quarter battle.
Keep in mind, when the Dukes drew Louisville earlier in the year (15th in Rushing Success Rate), the Cardinals mustered just 113 yards on 3.8 yards per carry.
The last piece here is pace.
James Madison would love to grind this game down and play keep-away. The Dukes finished third in time-of-possession percentage and ranked 122nd in seconds per play.
They’ll slowly chip away at the Oregon defense and then bank on Wayne Knight breaking a big one. More than half of his 1,258 rushing yards came on carries of 15-plus yards, giving him the fifth-highest “breakaway” percentage in the sport.
As long as this number stays above three touchdowns, it’s a play on JMU.
Pick: James Madison +21.5
