This will be the ninth Action Network Bowl Confidence Pool Preview, but the dynamics have completely changed over the past several years.
The transfer portal now doesn't open until Jan. 2, potentially minimizing the chaos in roster management for bowls.
Opt-outs for the NFL will always be an aspect of the postseason, but a later portal window could keep a number of players on the field to build equity in potential NIL earnings.
Coaching changes will also be a major factor in handicapping bowls for a confidence pool. The head coaches at James Madison and Tulane will land at Power 4 schools but are dedicated to taking their team through the College Football Playoff.
Another area of relief was the early signing period for recruiting, as the previous deadline ran through the first week of bowl season.
While the need for power ratings is diminished in bowl season, this column will look at all aspects of player and coach dynamics as a stock market check for bowl teams.
In a college football bowl confidence pool, you must attempt to pick the winner of all 41 bowls, from the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13 through the Duke’s Mayo Bowl on Jan. 2.
The goal is to pick a winner straight up in the game while assigning a point value that reflects how confident you are. The most confident pick should be assigned 41 points, with the lowest confidence pick receiving just one point.
Pool deadlines are set before the first kick, with the Celebration Bowl and LA Bowl starting as early as this Saturday.
Also, be sure to check Stuckey’s Opt-Out & Transfer Portal Tracker for roster updates throughout bowl season.
The 41 bowl assignments will not include the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff, as the matchups have yet to be determined. Here's a snapshot of our point assignment for all remaining bowls:
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South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M
Cricket Celebration Bowl · Saturday, Dec. 13
SWAC winner Prairie View A&M beat Jackson State in the championship game despite three turnovers and losing the yards-per-play battle.
Thanks to 39 minutes of possession, the Panthers produced two methodical drives and doubled up Jackson State in available yards.
Prairie View fields one of the better pass defenses, combined with a dual-threat quarterback and an elite wide receiver.
Cameron Peters rushed for 100 yards while throwing for 294 with two all-purpose touchdowns against Jackson State. Peters' connection with Jyzaiah Rockwell will be large in this bowl game, as the receiver averages a monster 3 yards per route run.
South Carolina State will counter with quarterback William Atkins IV and slot Jordan Smith. The Bulldogs rank 26th in total offense but fall outside the top 45 in FCS in red-zone scoring. The difference in this game is not just Peters' dual-threat abilities, but the fact that Prairie View ranks third of all FCS teams in total defense.
- Pick: Prairie View A&M · Confidence: 1
Boise State will have a tough time defending Washington's rushing attack. The Broncos own bottom-five FBS ranks in rush explosives allowed, PFF tackle grading and broken tackles allowed.
Quarterback Demond Williams Jr. is sure to play as a sophomore, but even if running back Jonah Coleman opts out, there would be enough in Jedd Fisch’s backfield to take advantage of Boise State.
- Pick: Washington · Confidence: 34
Two conference championship participants will meet in what should be a sold-out Cramton Bowl.
Troy suffered two notable injuries in the Sun Belt Championship: quarterback Goose Crowder — who started six games this season — and left guard Eli Russ. The severity of those injuries is unknown.
The Troy offense struggled to find any offensive rhythm this season. The same can't be said for Jacksonville State, a heavy rush offense that ranks 11th in ground explosives this season.
The combination of running back Cam Cook and quarterback Caden Creel utilizes zone read concepts and counter. The Trojans boast an average Success Rate against both rush concepts against a tougher group of opponents.
Jacksonville State finished dead last in strength of schedule.
When it's all said and done, pass explosives from the Troy side will seal the victory.
- Pick: Troy · Confidence: 2
Old Dominion finished the season on a defensive heater, as its final four Sun Belt opponents scored a grand total of 26 points.
The Monarchs have one of the best pass defenses in the Group of Five, also posting a top-10 number in quality drives allowed. The issues for the Old Dominion defense come against the rush, an area South Florida is likely to expose.
Whether Byrum Brown starts under center for the Bulls or not, three other backs have at least 60 rushing attempts with massive numbers in yards after first contact.
Old Dominion has also been putrid when it comes to defending inside zone.
While head coach Alex Golesh has left South Florida for Auburn, Old Dominion has a much bigger loss with quarterback Colton Joseph opting out of the game and entering the transfer portal.
- Pick: USF · Confidence: 17
Louisiana head coach Michael Desormeaux is 1-3 against the spread in bowl games, losing the last two bowls by a combined score of 65-6. However, the Ragin’ Cajuns did win their final four games in conference play via offensive shootouts.
The same can't be said for Delaware, which is making its first bowl game thanks to the low number of bowl-eligible teams in FBS.
The Blue Hens struggled down the stretch, a potential side effect of a roster playing its first season in Conference USA.
Quarterback Nick Minicucci has been vital for Delaware all season, accounting for 32 all-purpose touchdowns.
This game has "high-scoring affair" written all over it, but in a confidence pool, Louisiana is the pick thanks to a soft strength of schedule from Delaware. The Blue Hens also field one of the worst numbers in Quality Drives allowed and Finishing Drives allowed.
- Pick: Louisiana · Confidence: 6
Death, taxes and Butch Jones covering a bowl game are constants. Dating back to his time at Cincinnati in 2011, Jones has covered five of his last six bowl games, including his stops at Tennessee and Arkansas State.
Quarterback Jaylen Raynor leads a heavy passing attack that finished top-40 in efficiency and On-Target Rate.
Despite being new to FBS, Missouri State played a much tougher schedule and finished top-20 in Rush and Pass EPA. Fifth-year senior quarterback Jacob Clark ended the season on a terror with a 13:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the final five games.
It's tough to ignore Clark’s numbers against quarters coverage, a tendency used by an Arkansas State defense that's near dead last in creating a contested catch.
- Pick: Missouri State · Confidence: 19
Kennesaw State relies heavily on explosive plays to get into scoring position. There are two issues with that offensive model against Western Michigan.
First, the Broncos are top-35 in Rush EPA allowed and top-20 in limiting opponent pass explosives.
Secondly, Kennesaw State sits outside the top 100 in red-zone scoring and will now face a Western Michigan defense that's top-25 in red-zone efficiency.
The Western Michigan offense is ground-based with multiple concepts and features a strong Success Rate number in inside zone.
Look for quarterback Broc Lowry and running back Jalen Buckley to take advantage of an Owls defense that owns a low 35% Success Rate against inside zone.
- Pick: Western Michigan · Confidence: 9
Interim head coach Reggie Howard will look to get Memphis back to the win column after losing three straight to Navy, East Carolina and Tulane.
The Pirates also played a game against NC State, losing by a touchdown in the season opener.
The Memphis coaching staff has been splintered by the Ryan Silverfield hire at Arkansas, but this game could come down to the health of Tigers quarterback Brendon Lewis, who attempted only 15 designed runs over the final three games.
NC State head coach Dave Doeren could use a bowl win after failing to cover in four of the last five bowls for the Wolfpack.
The best part of the Memphis offense is the zone read concepts with Lewis and running back Sutton Smith. Well, NC State ranks top-25 in both defensive rush efficiency and EPA allowed, generating a high 63% Success Rate against inside zone.
- Pick: NC State · Confidence: 10
Alabama dominated the box score when these teams played earlier in the year, averaging more than 1.3 net yards per play against Oklahoma.
In 11 offensive possessions, the Crimson Tide posted two explosive drives of 10-plus yards per play and three methodical drives that lasted more than 10 plays.
Even with a larger number in Points Per Scoring Opportunity, Alabama was done in on special teams with a blocked field goal and 243 hidden yards.
Although OU quarterback John Mateer didn't post big numbers through the air or on the ground, a rushing touchdown falls in line with Alabama’s chronic issue against mobile quarterbacks.
- Pick: Oklahoma · Confidence: 11
This should be a tightly contested game with a spread projection within a field goal.
Texas A&M has the horsepower to defend a Miami rushing attack that uses inside zone and man blocking schemes. Not only are the Aggies at least 58% successful against those concepts, but the defense also creates a negative play on one of every six opponent attempts with man or gap assignments.
The Aggies also boast a top-five ranking in creating a contested catch. Miami quarterback Carson Beck should be throwing into tight windows against A&M's Cover 3 and Cover 1 looks.
The Texas A&M offense is where the separation lies, as Miami barely falls into the top 50 in creating a contested catch.
The Hurricanes have had issues tackling this season, ranking bottom-25 in PFF grading and broken tackles allowed, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Pick: Texas A&M · Confidence: 22
This is a rematch from an Ole Miss win back in Week 4.
Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss should have a field day against a Tulane defense that ranks 130th in creating a contested catch and 112th in broken tackles allowed.
The Rebels have struggled to defend the run this season but held the Green Wave's combination of quarterback Jake Retzlaff and running back Javin Gordon to less than 90 yards combined.
- Pick: Ole Miss · Confidence: 40
Bob Chesney did an amazing job with James Madison in the two seasons after Curt Cignetti took the Indiana job.
Chesney will stay with the team through the College Football Playoff before officially taking over UCLA, but it could be a quick stint in the bracket if Oregon returns to full health.
The Dukes' biggest gap after a strength of schedule rank of 118th is special teams and the ability to stop rush explosives.
There should be no shortage of highlights from Oregon running back Jordon Davison, especially if head coach Dan Lanning doesn't want to dip into a passing game that could be full strength with the return of receiver Dakorien Moore.
- Pick: Oregon · Confidence: 41
The Cougars will be without their head coach in bowl season once again, but defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbit steps in as the interim. That might be all Washington State needs after ending the season with fantastic numbers on the defensive side of the ball.
The 4-2-5 defense finished as one of the best pass defenses in the nation, ranking top-25 in Quality Drives allowed and Finishing Drives allowed.
This is a bend-don’t-break defense, ranking near dead last against the rush and in tackling, but it's 20th in opponent red-zone scoring.
Utah State relies on the explosive run, ending the season 10th in EPA thanks to 20 ground explosives from quarterback Bryson Barnes and running back Miles Davis.
As long as Washington State keeps the explosive plays out of the end zone, the Cougars will finish with a bowl victory.
- Pick: Washington State · Confidence: 3
From a coaching perspective, this could be the most lopsided pre-Christmas bowl.
Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm ended the season on a high note, oblitterating rival Kentucky after taking three straight ACC losses in November.
The Toledo coaching room, meanwhile, has been cleaned out with Jason Candle heading to UConn and defensive coordinator Vince Kehres going to Syracuse.
The best aspect of Toledo was a defense that ranked top-10 in nearly every category, specifically as the nation's best team in FBS in pass efficiency and Pass EPA allowed.
Louisville quarterback Miller Moss tossed three touchdowns in the finale against the Wildcats, while running backs Braxton Jennings and Shaun Boykins Jr. each posted 100 yards rushing.
Rockets quarterback Tucker Gleason saw 107 pressures this season, a factor that will continue against a Cardinals defense that ranks third in PFF pass rush.
- Pick: Louisville · Confidence: 31
Southern Miss entered November on the cusp of a conference championship appearance, but three consecutive losses cost the Golden Eagles a shot at the Sun Belt.
Head coach Charles Huff has moved on once again after a single season in Hattiesburg, leaving offensive coordinator Blake Anderson to serve as interim.
The former Arkansas State and Utah State head coach is no stranger to bowl preparation, compiling a 3-6 against-the-spread record in the postseason.
Western Kentucky also tripped down the stretch, losing crucial Conference USA games to Florida International and Jacksonville State.
The Hilltoppers get the nod in this contest, fielding much better numbers in third downs and defending explosives with a strong ranking of 11th in Finishing Drives allowed.
Southern Miss, meanwhile, struggled offensively over the final three games, creating just two explosive drives in 36 offensive possessions.
- Pick: Western Kentucky · Confidence: 33
The Bobcats will be without first-year head coach Brian Smith, who was placed on leave by the university. Specifically, Smith was asked to leave in middle of a Monday with no reason given.
Defensive coordinator John Hauser will take over interim duties, but determining an offensive play-caller will be key because Smith has been on Ohio's offensive staff dating back to 2022.
The heavy rush attack led by quarterback Parker Navarro and running back Sieh Bangura should have success against a UNLV defense that's outside the top 100 in Line Yards, Success Rate and opponent EPA.
The Rebels have a number of advantages on the offensive side of the ball, including a top-20 rank in standard downs explosives and quality drives. The Bobcats beat only one FBS team the entire season with a .500 record or better.
- Pick: UNLV · Confidence: 18
Don’t expect either of these coaches to run up the score, as Cal interim coach Nick Rolovich is a former teammate of Hawaii head coach Timmy Chang.
This game will be decided through the air between Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and Hawaii signal-caller Micah Alejado.
Hawaii boasts the better defense in creating a contested catch, while the Cal defense ranks top-25 in Passing Success Rate allowed, EPA allowed and PFF coverage grading.
JKS will face strong quarters coverage from the Warriors, a tendency the freshman had a moderate 49% Success Rate against. Alejado will face plenty of Cover 3 from the Bears, and he posted a 55% Success Rate against that coverage.
- Pick: Hawaii · Confidence: 14
A large strength-of-schedule difference falls in favor of Northwestern here.
Matt Drinkall's Central Michigan offense will force the Wildcats to face power, inside zone and man blocking run concepts. Northwestern has posted mid-FBS ranks against those concepts and has the advantage when Central Michigan enters scoring position.
Wildcats head coach David Braun leads a team that's top-15 in penalties and special teams, both of which will be factors in a post-Christmas grind.
- Pick: Northwestern · Confidence: 29
Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck is 7-2 against the spread in bowls, a positive note with the Gophers favored by a field goal.
New Mexico head coach Jason Eck will send a heavy zone read concept, with the most success coming from inside zone. Minnesota has average numbers against inside zone and low success against outside zone at 44%.
The Lobos have the better defense, specifically in creating a pass rush and in Finishing Drives. Minnesota’s bottom-10 rankings in creating explosives and special teams assist the Lobos in the upset.
- Pick: New Mexico · Confidence: 15
Florida International has an offense based on rush explosives with running backs Kejon Owens and Anthony Carrie. UTSA has defended inside zone well this season and ranks top-30 in opponent rush explosives allowed.
The biggest advantage in this game is the UTSA ground attack, which ranks top-10 in explosives.
Running back Robert Henry Jr. has 24 explosives on the season and will be the difference-maker against the Panthers.
- Pick: UTSA · Confidence: 30
Where will the motivation be for this bowl? East Carolina makes a return to the Military Bowl after defeating NC State in this very game a year ago.
Pitt, meanwhile, missed a chance to compete for the ACC Championship and a spot in the playoff. On top of that, head coach Pat Narduzzi has covered the spread in just two of his seven bowl games.
The Pirates should have no success running the ball, but quarterback Katin Houser will be asked to throw into Pitt’s secondary.
On the other side, freshman signal-caller Mason Heintschel leads a Pitt offense that's based on air explosives.
East Carolina ranks 74th in PFF coverage grading while sitting outside the top 100 in creating a contested catch. With the Pirates owning a PFF tackling grade of 133rd, the Panthers should have plenty of explosive plays.
- Pick: Pitt · Confidence: 26
The good news for Penn State interim head coach Terry Smith is that he will be retained on Matt Campbell's 2026 staff no matter the outcome of this bowl.
Defensive coordinator Tom Allen didn’t have much success in Year 1 at Clemson, but he'll get a chance to face a Penn State offense he saw in practice daily in 2024.
Penn State could lose key pieces on both sides of the ball if they decide to opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Clemson, meanwhile, will field a top-10 defense in Havoc, third downs and Finishing Drives.
Confidence remains low with both sides expected to lose key roster contributors.
If Penn State's rushing attack remains solid and the depth chart holds steady at running back and offensive line, the Nittany Lions will end the season on a winning note.
- Pick: Penn State · Confidence: 16
No coach is more profitable in bowls than Army's Jeff Monken. This year, he's set to take on an interim staff at UConn.
Huskies offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis will take over interim head coach duties, but the defensive side of the ball will be the downfall of UConn.
Army will throw the kitchen sink of run concepts at UConn, including man blocking, zone read, power and fullback dive.
The UConn defense has been a dumpster for defending the run, ranking dead last in Defensive Stuff Rate. The Huskies sit below a 40% Success Rate against every run concept, making this a game Army can control.
- Pick: Army · Confidence: 27
We're blessed to have a Bear Bachmeier vs. Haynes King game in bowl season, as the Georgia Tech quarterback will try to end his college career by eating a live Pop-Tarts mascot.
BYU has the tougher strength of schedule and an extreme advantage in defensive analytics. The Cougars have had extreme success against power run concepts, a staple of the Yellow Jackets' rushing attack.
On the other side of the ball, BYU ranks fourth in creating methodical drives. Bachmeier should control the clock and have plenty of scoring opportunities.
- Pick: BYU · Confidence: 32
Miami (OH) head coach Chuck Martin has gone 6-1 against the spread in bowl games, as the RedHawks will look to recover from a loss in the MAC Championship game.
Fresno State head coach Matt Entz has plenty of postseason experience from his time at North Dakota State, but the Fresno offense sits outside the top 100 in rush efficiency and Havoc allowed.
Miami (OH) finished top-10 in creating a contested catch, notable for Fresno quarterback EJ Warner, who nearly doubled his turnover-worthy plays compared to his big-time throws.
- Pick: Miami (OH) · Confidence: 8
North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker won the Burlsworth Award, given to the most outstanding player who began his career as a walk-on. However, Mestemaker and other key pieces of the North Texas offense could hit the portal.
Head coach Eric Morris accepted the job at Oklahoma State, leaving a coaching staff and roster in flux.
San Diego State will have an interim defensive coordinator, but head coach Sean Lewis returns with an explosive passing attack and a defense that's top-15 in nearly every category.
- Pick: San Diego State · Confidence: 7
Eli Drinkwitz has won his prior two bowls and has a 3-1 record against the spread during the postseason.
All eyes will be on Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy’s status. He's one of the most elusive running backs in the nation who could blow through a Virginia defense that sits outside the top 60 in Defensive Line Yards and Defensive Stuff Rate.
The Cavaliers have lived off rush explosives all season, but the Tigers are top-20 in opponent Rush EPA. Missouri has feasted against offenses using outside zone, the same concept Virginia uses with running back J’Mari Taylor.
- Pick: Missouri · Confidence: 36
Former Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman will see LSU for the third time in his college career, as Houston plays a simulated home game.
Head coach Willie Fritz has covered five of his last six postseason games.
On the other side, the question remains: How many defensive players will opt-out for the Tigers?
There have already been opt-outs by quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, defensive back Mansoor Delane and linebacker Whit Weeks.
- Pick: Houston · Confidence: 28
These teams met at the beginning of November, as Georgia Southern took a victory with an edge in net yards per play.
The Eagles produced at least two first downs on 8-of-11 offensive possessions while also genrating an explosive drive, where a possession averages more than 10 yards per play.
The Mountaineers, meanwhile, were stuffed on half of their rushing attempts while converting just 4-of-14 third-down attempts.
- Pick: Georgia Southern · Confidence: 4
The Louisiana Tech offense flipped on and off like a light switch this season.
The Bulldogs lost four of their five games through the back half of the season, only to rebound with consecutive wins over Missouri State and Liberty to end the season.
The same can't be said about Coastal Carolina, as head coach Tim Beck was fired despite winning six games with the biggest transfer portal team to begin the season.
The Chanticleers lost their final two games by a combined score of 110-17 against James Madison and South Carolina.
Louisiana Tech fields the best unit on the field with the 10th-ranked Havoc defense that's top-35 in limiting both pass and rush explosives.
- Pick: Louisiana Tech · Confidence: 35
Illinois failed to beat any team with a winning record during the months of October and November, as the defense struggled to contain any opponent's passing attack. The Fighting Illini finished 111th in opponent pass explosives and 121st in Finishing Drives allowed.
Both of those factors will play a role against Tennessee's wide-split veer-and-shoot.
The Volunteers rank top-25 in Success Rate, Quality Drives and Finishing Drives. All of those analytics will be needed to cover up a defense that just fired coordinator Tim Banks.
- Pick: Tennessee · Confidence: 20
There could be a heavy number of opt-outs for this game, but this should be an offensive laser show.
USC is much better at defending the pass, but with the departure of Kendal Briles as TCU's offensive coordinator, the Horned Frogs' attack could be modified.
The Trojans finished top-10 in pass efficiency, Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.
The juggernaut offense led by quarterback Jayden Maiava will need full participation from targets Makai Lemon and Ja'Kobi Lane.
With USC fielding the better defensive unit against the pass, the Trojans will try to avoid an Alamo letdown similar to TCU’s 31-0 comeback a decade ago.
- Pick: USC · Confidence: 25
Iowa should make this game closer than the current market spread, as the defense is seasoned in defending Vanderbilt's power, counter and zone read concepts with quarterback Diego Pavia.
The key to beating Vanderbilt is to throw passes into the secondary, an area where Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski struggled. The South Dakota State transfer completed just 12-of-32 passes beyond 20 yards while generating just nine big-time throws on 241 passing attempts this season.
Iowa keeps the close, but the lack of explosives from the Hawkeyes is the difference against Pavia.
- Pick: Vanderbilt · Confidence: 13
There's a stark contrast in bowl season results with these head coaches. Arizona State's Kenny Dillingham has covered in both of his bowl contests, while Duke's Manny Diaz is 0-3 against the spread during his bowl game career.
Duke won the ACC Championship but now faces a Sun Devils defense that's 14th in Havoc and top-50 in limiting Pass EPA.
The Blue Devils have failed to control the line of scrimmage offensively, which should allow the Sun Devils to get in the backfield frequently.
ASU quarterback Jeff Sims will face Duke for the fourth time in his career, but this could be the worst version of the Blue Devils defense yet.
Diaz fields a defensive unit that's outside the top 100 in opponent ground and air explosives, while also coming in at 131st in Finishing Drives allowed.
- Pick: Arizona State · Confidence: 23
The Texas offense was rolling toward the end of the season, putting a 50-burger on Arkansas before Arch Manning’s two all-purpose touchdowns against Texas A&M.
The Longhorns ended the season 10th in pass explosives, as Manning threw a turnover-worthy play in just one of his final six games of the season.
The Horns defense has been excellent against the run but has severe issues against inside zone.
Michigan’s primary run concept has been inside zone with quarterback Bryce Underwood, as Texas posted just a 43% Success Rate defending the tendency.
- Pick: Michigan · Confidence: 5
Utah might have the more stable roster and coaching staff leading up to kickoff in Las Vegas.
Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule has already made changes, firing a defensive coordinator, defensive line coach and offensive line coach. Running back Emmett Johnson also might not be the only Cornhusker to opt out for the NFL Draft.
Utah did field a poor tackling unit on defense, but Nebraska quarterback TJ Lateef had minimal designed rushing yards in six appearances this season.
The Utes should dominate a poor Husker defense that sits outside of the top 100 in numerous categories, including Havoc and opponent rush explosives.
- Pick: Utah · Confidence: 38
Texas State draws five-win Rice after a number of teams opted out of bowl season.
There's a stark contrast on the field when the Bobcats have the ball, using tempo and explosives to get downfield in a hurry.
The Rice defense comes in near dead last in coverage and allowing rush explosives. The Owls offense won't be able to keep up here.
- Pick: Texas State · Confidence: 39
Two offenses with high-powered quarterbacks will hit Memphis in search of a bowl victory.
Neither defense has kept opponents from creating methodical drives, but Navy’s ability to own the trench with quarterback Blake Horvath will be on display.
The Midshipmen's best defense against Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby could be playing ball-control offense. The Bearcats only beat one team this season with a winning record, losing the final four games in Big 12 play.
- Pick: Navy · Confidence: 21
Mississippi State will try to win the Duke's Mayo Bowl as a five-win team, but a stingy Wake Forest defense stands as a hurdle for the Bulldogs.
The Demon Deacons excelled in stuffing opposing ground games, while also finishing top-20 in PFF coverage grading and air explosives allowed.
Head coach Jake Dickert couldn't find any continuity on the offensive side of the ball, but a top-10 rank in overall EPA shows how quickly the Deacs can put points on the board.
Running back Demond Claiborne should sizzle against a Mississippi State defense that's 115th against ground explosives.
- Pick: Wake Forest · Confidence: 12
With the transfer portal opening the day of this game, both Arizona and SMU could be subject to massive roster changes. If the teams stay intact, the Wildcats defense would be the unit that wins the Holiday Bowl.
SMU failed to generate methodicals this season, ranking 111th in Quality Drives. The Mustangs became too reliant on explosive plays, but Arizona ranks 15th in opponent Pass EPA.
The Wildcats finished the season top-10 in Havoc and coverage, so expect some turnover-worthy plays from SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings.
- Pick: Arizona · Confidence: 24
