Merry Bowl Season to those who still celebrate! Amid the discourse and opt-outs, there’s still fun to be had with the college football postseason. My favorite way to indulge in the action is through bowl confidence pools.
Betting bowls can be a total roulette wheel. Do you take the opening number before it moves a full touchdown and risk the star quarterback opting out? Or do you take the points with an underdog playing a big brand whose entire roster is sure to transfer?
Instead, I see real opportunity in playing and taking advantage of opportunities in confidence pools.
Simply picking favorites and ordering them by highest expected win rate to lowest expected win rate is enough to beat most of your square buddies and put you in the top 20% of ESPN’s challenge standings.
But for sharper pools, that’s not enough. So, I’m here to help vault you into the elite top tier.
For that, you need the right contrarian picks.
How to Find Bowl Contrarian Picks
Simply put, I leverage national pick rates of certain teams against sportsbooks' expected win rates to find underrepresented favorites.
Anyone with less than a 50% pick rate nationally but favored across sportsbooks should be worth a pick while leveraging them with lots of confidence points.
The term “confidence points” is incredibly misleading and leads to a ton of mistakes. Most take it as, “I’m not sure about this team, so I rank them lower,” or “I'm certain of this outcome, so I rank it higher.”
Instead, consider confidence points as the discrepancy between the public and sharp sides of each game.
I look for gaps in national pick rates and expected win rates. Let the oddsmakers and market be your confidence gauge and assign your points based on where the general public in your confidence pool is on the wrong side.
Like most contests, confidence pools are games of math and number sense.
In short, these are picks that win your pool.
Top Contrarian Picks for College Football Bowl Confidence Pools
The following teams are listed based on expected win rates against pick percentages. Oftentimes, entries are filled out according strictly to record or ranking, opening up opportunities for sharper players. Think of it as a pool of teams to choose from.
- Note: For this article, I pulled the expected win rate (Win%) straight from converting posted moneylines into a percentage. If you want the extra edge, remove the vig — however, I’ve found this not to be entirely necessary.
When contrarian opportunities like these arise, I like to be aggressive. These picks are the ones that separate your entry from the masses.
At a nearly 30% discrepancy between expected win rate (Win%) and pick rate (Pick%), Utah State and Army are leveraged highly between 30-40 points. Mississippi State isn’t far behind thanks to its near-20% gap and 57% expected win rate.
Other Contrarian Picks to Consider
These are all underdogs worth considering due to that discrepancy between win rate and pick rate. Simply, these are underrepresented teams.
Nail a couple of these underdog picks, and you’re sitting pretty.
But where to place some of these contrarian picks? That’s the question.
They’re underdogs, so you’re incurring some risk here. How you weigh them should be determined by the size of your pool.
If you’re playing in a small office pool, these can be smaller sprinkles below 25 confidence points. If you’re competing on a national scale, don’t be afraid to be more aggressive and move them between 25-35 points.
After all, hitting on just one of these picks can swing you multiple percentiles.
College Football Bowl Tips for the Road
The overwhelming majority of confidence pool submissions are "set and forget." Smaller contests may require you to finalize your picks and lock them after the Celebration Bowl kicks off, but not all of them do. Make sure to read your rules.
If you can edit picks as time goes on, do it!
Did the odds swing wildly away from your pick between Dec. 12 and Dec. 29? Flip your pick. Falling behind on the national leaderboards? Move up some aggressive contrarian picks to try and turn the tables. Sitting high on the board but have some risky contrarian picks upcoming? Pick the favorites and ride the wave with the majority of the pool.
Contrary to belief, you can play defense in these pools.
Stave off the possibility that Miami (OH) doesn’t come through and you lose your footing because 91% of entries were on Fresno State.
Check in frequently. Your confidence pool can, and should, be a living entry.
