Texas vs. Louisiana Tech Betting Odds & Preview: Will Herman Continue Struggling as Favorite?
Chuck Cook, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Tom Herman
Texas vs. Louisiana Tech Betting Odds
- Odds: Texas -20.5
- Over/Under: 55.5
- Date: Saturday, August 31
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
All odds above are as of 2 p.m. ET on Friday and via PointsBet.
Could the writeup for this game just be that Tom Herman does not cover as a favorite and Skip Holtz generally covers as an underdog? OK, we’re done here? Great.
While most everyone knows about the Herman splits, its the Louisiana Tech coach who has been fantastic as a visiting underdog, per Bet Labs.
Conversely, Tom Herman has not been a covering coach when favored by 6-points or more. Last season saw close calls against Tulsa and Kansas.
But this handicap goes past the trend records for the two coaches. The Longhorns suffered numerous injuries during camp, most of which are listed as probable for the Louisiana Tech game.
The Bulldogs quarterback and wide receiver combo of J’Mar Smith and Adrian Hardy was one of the most explosive in Conference USA.
— Conference USA (@ConferenceUSA) November 11, 2018
On the flip side, Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger will have to deal with Louisiana Tech shutdown cornerback Amik Robertson. With four interceptions and 12 pass breakups from 2018, Robertson will be able to shutdown a top Texas target like wide receiver Collin Johnson.
This number may get enough Longhorns steam to get back to 21 before kick and I’d like the safety of three scores, but our Action Network projections put this game at 14.5.
Collin’s Pick: Louisiana Tech +20.5
Miller: Why I’m Betting La. Tech, Too
Everyone knows how poor Tom Herman has been as a big favorite in his time as a head coach. Part of the reason that he struggles in those spots is because he’s very conservative approach with his quarterbacks in these games.
He doesn’t care what happens, as long has his quarterback doesn’t get injured and he leaves with a win. Herman is 15-23-2 against the spread as a favorite in his career, and 6-13-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite.
That means quarterback Sam Ehlinger will be sitting back in the pocket slinging it around or just handing it off, eliminating one of the best aspects of Texas’ offense — his playmaking ability on the ground.
When Ehlinger does drop back to pass, he’ll be facing one of the best corners in the country in Louisiana Tech’s Amik Robertson.
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) September 10, 2017
Tech has an experienced quarterback in J’Mar Smith who can take care of the ball and get it to his prime target, Adrian Hardy. Texas has one of the worst defensive returning production numbers in the country so they’ll have their hands full.
To top it all off, Texas hosts LSU in Week 2. There’s no way these guys are going to be focused on Louisiana Tech this week, especially given Tom Herman’s track record as a big favorite.
The Pick: Louisiana Tech +20.5