It's already Week 7 of the college football season — yes, you read that right. I'm targeting three noon spots for my Week 7 NCAAF picks and predictions, including two power-conference matchups.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 7, here's the full piece.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 23-18-2 (56.1%)
- Overall: 192-141-3 (57.7%)
Week 7 NCAAF Picks, Predictions for Noon Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Missouri +3.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Michigan State -8.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Bowling Green +11 |
Missouri +3.5 vs. Alabama
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
This game all comes down to what you make of Missouri so far against a very weak schedule that ranks outside the top 150.
On the other side, we have a much better idea of who this Alabama team is following games against Vanderbilt, Georgia and Florida State across one of the nation's most difficult schedules so far this season.
If you believe in Missouri, you're probably taking the 3.5 like me. If not, you're probably looking to fade the Tigers. Regardless, it really is a dream situational spot with Missouri coming off a bye for its sixth straight home game to start the season.
The Tigers should come in as the much fresher team and benefit from extra preparation in addition to increased health with the return of starting cornerback Drey Norwood and tight end Jordon Harris.
It's also worth mentioning that the Tigers played UMass prior to their bye week, which means they've basically had three full weeks to prepare new wrinkles and get healthier for this matchup against an Alabama team that's coming off two straight wars against Georgia and Vanderbilt in back-to-back weeks. That's a meaningful difference.
The one lingering injury question for Missouri is a big one with stud left tackle Cayden Green. He missed the past two games with a leg injury, but did get some reps in practice early this week.
Head coach Eli Drinkwitz said he's officially questionable, and we won't know more until later in the week.
His potential absence looms large since his backup, Jayven Richardson, even struggled against UMass, allowing four pressures and two sacks. His status could swing this result.
With Green, Missouri won't need as much tight end help in pass protection and can get YAC monster Kevin Coleman Jr. on the field more frequently, making the offense much more potent, Meanwhile, his absence could lead to one or two more drive-killing sacks or Pribula mistakes.
There's no questioning that Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has looked drastically better since the dud in Tallahassee to open the season, but the Tide were still a few bounces from losing both games against the only quality competition they've faced since.
If they even dropped one of those two, we might be having a much different conversation ahead of this matchup.
I normally don't rate Missouri as having a super elite home-field advantage, but given the circumstances, this is as juiced up as it will ever be with Columbia getting its first matchup of top-15 teams since 1979.
For what it's worth, Eli Drinkwitz has gone 10-3 ATS (76.9%) as a home underdog during his tenure at Missouri.
So, who exactly is this Missouri team? Well, it all starts with Ahmad Hardy, who has arguably been the nation's best running back in Missouri's heavy outside zone scheme.
Hardy leads the country in yards after contact with 551. That's more than 17 teams have rushed for in total this season, including LSU and South Carolina.
And it's not just Hardy. Jamal Roberts has also averaged over 7.0 yards per carry, while Pribula can also contribute with his legs. That's a formula that has given Alabama's defense fits over the past two seasons.
That run game keeps Missouri ahead of the sticks as well as any team in the country, which has led to the nation's second-highest third-down conversion rate, trailing only Navy. It also sets up nice, easy short passes for Pribula, who's living in the 0-10 yard range, where he has completed 62-of-67 passes.
The receivers are dynamic after the catch, and the entire operation just sucks the life out of games, with Missouri leading the country in time of possession at nearly 40 minutes per game.
That offensive style marries perfectly with a dominant defense that has allowed nothing on the ground and can generate elite pressure in known passing situations thanks to a pair of elite edge rushers in Zion Young and Georgia transfer Damon Wilson, who each rank in the top five among all P4 edge rushers in pressure rate.
Just like on the offensive side of the ball, Missouri ranks second nationally in third-down conversion rate on defense. Now, if you're an Alabama backer, you can just point to Missouri's weak strength of schedule, which is a valid counterargument.
So, can this approach work against Alabama? I believe so.
We saw Florida State control the game from start to finish against the Tide by running the ball 49 times for 230 yards in a 14-point victory. And in the last two close victories, Georgia and Vanderbilt combined for 48 rushes for 377 yards for an average of nearly eight yards per clip.
This Alabama defense remains vulnerable against the run and doesn't have the same elite talent along the defensive line that we became so accustomed to seeing under Nick Saban. On the season, the Tide rank outside the top 100 in sacks per game.
On the other side of the ball, Alabama has really struggled to get any consistent run game going (although it's better with Jam Miller back), which will allow Missouri's tremendous pass rush to get after Simpson, who hasn't seen a pass rush at this level yet.
Can the secondary hold up against the elite Tide receivers? That's my biggest concern by far.
Missouri's secondary can't cover the elite Tide receivers in space. You can expect plenty of zone on the back end to limit the explosive plays and hopefully bait Simpson into a mistake or two, which will become much more likely if the Missouri pass rush can get home.
Keep in mind that Alabama also leads the country in turnover margin with 10 takeaways to only one giveaway (just one fumble that it recovered), so don't be surprised if a few bounces go Missouri's way in a dream spot on the schedule.
Simpson has played clean football with 13 touchdowns to just one interception, but he does have four turnover-worthy plays.
Ultimately, I just don't have a ton separating the top of the SEC from the next tier.
Throw in the situation and some matchup advantages for the Tigers, and I like anything at a field goal or better against a Tide team that has certainly had its fair share of road woes in recent seasons.
Hopefully, Missouri can use the preparation edge and home crowd to jump out to an early lead, where it's built to thrive, while getting too far behind could spell doom for this offense. I can't wait for this one.
Notable Nugget
Alabama is just 7-13 ATS (35%) in true road games since 2021, failing to cover by nearly a touchdown per game, including 2-5 ATS vs. ranked opponents.
Pick: Missouri +3.5 (Play to +3)
Michigan State -8.5 vs. UCLA
12 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
This is obviously a tough spot for the Bruins after pulling off one of the most shocking upsets of the season last week against Penn State as 24.5-point underdogs.
Now, they must regain focus for a road trip out east for a noon ET kick (9 a.m. body clock for UCLA) against Michigan State.
UCLA deserved that victory last week, but I believe it benefited immensely from the situational spot with Penn State coming off a devastating overtime loss against Oregon in a game it had circled since the end of last season.
The Nittany Lions were also the team in that instance that had to deal with traveling across multiple time zones.
UCLA also had a new play-caller in Jerry Neuheisel, who added some new wrinkles that really unleashed Nico Iamaleava's legs. Well, that game is now on film.
Additionally, Michigan State should get a few key bodies back this week on defense, and the Spartans have done a respectable job of containing the QB run game thanks to a very underrated linebacker room.
From a matchup perspective, getting pressure on Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles is the most effective way to completely neuter Michigan State's offense, which has lost multiple offensive linemen to injury, forcing its right tackle to move to the left side in recent weeks.
It's a major area of weakness, which is troubling for Chiles, who has performed at an extremely poor level when opposing defenses can get pressure. That's when all of the mistakes come.
Well, fortunately for Chiles, who has been pressured at one of the 25 highest rates in the country, UCLA has generated pressure at one of the two lowest rates among all P4 teams (along with North Carolina) at right around 20%.
The Michigan State offensive line has a chance to hold up in this one to allow its talented receivers time to win one-on-one battles on the outside, which will rarely be a luxury for this Spartans team in Big Ten play.
Yes, the Bruins have played a fairly difficult schedule, but the defense still ranks dead last nationally in Success Rate allowed. The talent on that side of the ball has dropped precipitously after a number of NFL departures in the offseason.
There's one cornerback I really like, in addition to an interior defensive lineman. The linebacker group also has a few playmakers.
But this is still a group that couldn't come close to getting a stop against New Mexico and trailed Northwestern, 17-0, in the second half before a late rally fell short in the following week.
The newly appointed hires at head coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator have certainly implemented positive changes and injected life into the previously corpse-like Bruins.
Nico has also looked much better at quarterback over the past few weeks, but the offensive line remains very poor. The wide receiver room is also underwhelming as a whole.
Plus, this will be an extremely difficult situational spot in a game; I project it a bit over 10.
For what it's worth, I did split up my bet between full game (-8.5) and 1H -4.5.
I usually love what I see during the scripted portion of games under MSU head coach Jonathan Smith, and there's a real chance UCLA comes out a bit lethargic for an early kick in the Eastern Time Zone following last week's monumental upset.
While Michigan State does come off two tough road games (with a bye in between) against USC and Nebraska with Indiana on deck, I do expect a fully focused effort, as the Spartans basically need this game for any shot at getting to a bowl.
In the interest of full transparency, I have the least confidence in this pick (among the eight spots) with so much uncertainty following all of the recent staff changes for the Bruins, who also have the superior special teams.
It's possible the old staff was just completely incompetent, and I'm not upgrading UCLA enough.
Plus, I don't love needing Michigan State to win by a real margin, so it's certainly a game I may look to middle live if Michigan State gets up early, so make sure you keep an eye out on the Action App.
Regardless, I still clicked submit on this wager since this is still a spectacular situational spot and a decent matchup for the Spartans against a UCLA team I was super low on coming into the season.
Notable Nugget
Surprisingly, teams coming off of an upset as more than three-touchdown underdogs have gone 29-15 (65.9%) ATS the following week as underdogs.
However, the four West Coast Big Ten teams have gone just 7-12 ATS (36.8%) in conference road games when traveling across at least one time zone since joining the league.
Pick: Michigan State -8.5 (Play to -9)
Bowling Green +11 vs. Toledo
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
I always look forward to the Battle of I-75 in a matchup between two schools located just 20 miles apart.
Toledo, which leads the all-time series, 43-42-4, will have revenge on its mind after the Falcons took back the trophy last season.
However, compared to my projections, this is just too many points (against a generally unreliable favorite) in a decent matchup for Bowling Green, which will benefit from two weeks of preparation following its bye.
Now, Toledo also enjoyed a bye week, but I believe those hold more value early in the season for a team like Bowling Green that dealt with significant roster and staff turnover in the offseason.
Toledo does boast the best defense in the league by a wide margin. The Rockets will always feature a defensive line that can get after opposing quarterbacks, and they once again have an elite secondary with zero weaknesses.
Cornerback Avery Smith leads the country with a minuscule 4.9 yards per reception allowed (39 yards on 22 targets), and fellow outside corner Andre Fuller has arguably been just as dominant. Meanwhile, safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren will be another defensive back Toledo puts in the NFL.
The way to attack this Toledo stop unit is primarily on the ground, while mixing in some well-timed short, quick passes. On the season, the Toledo defense ranks in the top 10 in Passing Success Rate allowed but slightly below average in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
You have to methodically move the ball down the field against the Rockets, who excel at limiting explosive plays.
Fortunately for the Falcons, that's the only way they're capable of moving the ball with their extremely run-heavy offense behind an uber-experienced offensive line.
The Falcons have one of the least explosive offenses in the country and will rarely look to attack deep with quarterback Drew Pyne, who has the lowest aDOT (5.9 yards) among 126 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks.
Toledo's defense has also benefited from an extremely favorable schedule of opposing rush offenses.
The Rockets have wins over Morgan State, Western Kentucky, Western Michigan and Akron. None of those four teams has any semblance of a rushing attack, while Bowling Green ranks in the top 40 nationally at 4.8 yards per carry.
The Falcons accomplished that against a schedule of opponents that ranks in the top 40 nationally in difficulty, highlighted by road games against Ohio, Louisville and Cincinnati. Conversely, Toledo's strength of schedule sits outside the top 130.
Additionally, Toledo's most recent victory came in blowout fashion over Akron, which played without starting quarterback Ben Finley and a number of other key starters. There's an enormous drop-off at quarterback from Finley to his backups.
Meanwhile, Bowling Green's most recent result came in a loss at Ohio, but the Falcons got fairly unlucky due to a tipped pick-six, a red-zone interception and another lost fumble by the backup quarterback that led to a short-field touchdown after Pyne left with an injury.
Pyne wasn't the same after returning to action for an offense that put up nearly 300 yards in the first half. I expect that his ankle shouldn't be an issue after two weeks off, but it's certainly worth noting.
When Toledo has the ball, you never know what you will get with the enigmatic Tucker Gleason — one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the country on a week-to-week basis.
I do worry about Bowling Green's weak outside cornerback group against the MAC's best wide receiver corps. If Gleason has one of his good days, it could be a long day for the Falcons, who are also simply not built to play from too far behind.
However, their best cornerback does at least play in the slot, which is critical against Junior Vandeross III — arguably the best wideout in the conference. He primarily lines up in the slot, similar to Ohio's Chase Hendricks, who led the nation in receiving prior to facing Bowling Green, which held him to just one catch for 25 yards.
The Falcons have also really struggled to contain opposing tight ends, but Toledo doesn't really utilize that position in the passing game.
Toledo's rushing attack has improved after last year's horror show due to the arrival of P4 transfer Chip Trayanum, but it's still not elite due to continued deficiencies along the offensive line.
I don't envision the Rockets having an abundance of success churning out yards on the ground against a BG rush defense that has held up relatively well so far.
As a result, this will come down to Gleason, who will hopefully have one of his off days where he can't hit the broad side of a barn.
Look no further than his two most recent games to start off 2025 MAC play.
Against Western Michigan, he finished 15-of-30 for 89 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. He then followed that up with a sparkling 16-of-19 performance vs. Akron for 237 yards with three touchdowns and no picks.
Gleason has been pressured on nearly 37% of his dropbacks (bad), and his numbers fall off a cliff (much more than a normal decline) when pressured with plenty of turnover-worthy plays.
However, that's not an overwhelming strength of the BG defense, which will need Myles Bradley to create some chaos off the edge.
If Gleason brings his A-game, this could get very dicey, but I'm willing to take a chance with the home 'dog in a rivalry game coming off a bye with a new staff and roster, especially since I project this spread closer to +8.5.
Plus, the Falcons will at least attack the weakest part of this Rockets defense, while shortening the game with clock-bleeding drives. I also really fancy their special teams for a MAC school, which certainly doesn't hurt.
Notable Nugget
Over the past five seasons, Toledo head coach Jason Candle has had the most outright losses (16) of any coach as a favorite.
That includes just a 16-7 SU record as a double-digit favorite (7-7 SU when favored between 10-17) with a -22% ROI on the moneyline. That includes an upset loss earlier this season against Western Michigan.
Over that span, only the now-retired Mack Brown was less profitable in that role.
Pick: Bowling Green +11 (Play to +10.5)
