The last week of the college football regular season is upon us. That means it's time to take a look at the odds board and see what kind of value we can find before lines move.
Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson cashed his Week 13 early bet with ease when SMU throttled Louisville, and now he's turning his attention to the Mountain West.
Let's dive into Wilson's college football picks and NCAAF predictions for San Diego State vs. New Mexico in Week 14 below.
San Diego State vs New Mexico Odds
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
San Diego State head coach Sean Lewis could be a candidate for Coach of the Year, turning the Aztecs into a nine-win team with a potential Mountain West Championship appearance on the horizon.
For the Aztecs to achieve that goal, a final road trip to Albuquerque remains.
This game is the pinnacle of the conference, as the winner between San Diego State and New Mexico will play host in the Mountain West Championship.
New Mexico’s resurgence can be attributed to a focus on trench play.
The Lobos' offensive and defensive lines both rank top-20 nationally in Line Yards and Stuff Rate — no surprise with new head coach Jason Eck previously serving as an offensive line coach at numerous FCS schools.
The Lobos offense has been a run-first unit behind running backs D.J. McKinney and Damon Bankston, who have combined for 17 explosive runs and 27 missed tackles forced.
The New Mexico ground game relies on zone read concepts, with the more efficiency and EPA coming from inside zone.
However, the Aztecs have been outstanding on defense this season, ranking as the best unit in all of FBS in limiting quality drives.
San Diego State comes in as the nation's top defensive team in points per possession allowed when opponents cross the 40-yard line, but its specialty comes against the rush.
The Aztecs rank 16th in Rushing Success Rate allowed, specializing in shutting down zone read concepts. San Diego State creates plenty of negative plays, posting a 61% Success Rate against inside zone and 66% Success Rate against outside zone.
The offense has struggled to put points on the board in various parts of the season, but SDSU quarterback Jayden Denegal may be able to generate explosives in this matchup.
The Michigan transfer has attempted more passes over 20 yards than in the 10-19 yard range.
San Diego State ranks 12th in Pass EPA, a bonus against a New Mexico team that struggles to defend pass explosives and ranks 134th in creating a contested catch.
Pick: San Diego State -2 or Better
