Markets like Kalshi have sprung up overnight to address the James Franklin power vacuum in Happy Valley.
Bettors can speculate on which coach is set to take over the reins in State College.
I have four options that investors should be considering, so let's take an in-depth look at the Penn State head coach candidates in the midst of Franklin's firing.
Matt Rhule
Nebraska Head Coach
From a narrative standpoint, the former Penn State walk-on is a perfect fit.
He has connections to the school, a blue-collar track record as a program builder, and ties to the area dating back to his time as a coach at Temple. That means he knows the lay of the land and how to hit the ground running as a recruiter.
From a buy-out perspective, Rhule’s isn’t a deal-breaker.
If he left Nebraska for another job, he’d owe the Cornhusker brass $5 million, a figure that would be covered by a suitor like Penn State.
Penn State would also need to make an offer above his current salary range. He's currently making $8.5 million this season to lead Nebraska, with escalators up to $12.5 million in the final year of his deal.
So, this will be an expensive proposal from the jump.
While Rhule has earned a reputation as a “turnaround specialist,” he’s never finished a season in the AP Top 10, nor has he won a major bowl game.
The Nittany Lions just fired Franklin for failing to break through in that regard, so it could be a tough sell internally at this price point.
Manny Diaz
Duke Head Coach
Diaz was a highly successful defensive coordinator at Penn State from 2022 to 2023. He fielded top-10 defenses known for living in opponents’ backfields and forcing turnovers.
He has head coaching experience — 4.5 seasons' worth — spread across his time at Miami and his current post at Duke. His tenure with the Canes was forgettable, a 21-15 stretch in which he never really got out of neutral.
But he looks reborn at Duke.
The issue, much like with Rhule, is that he isn’t known as a “big-game hunter.”
Diaz has four wins over ranked opponents but none in the top 10. That was the bugaboo that got Franklin fired, so why sub out one above-average but not elite coach for another?
Bill O'Brien
Boston College Head Coach
BOB is already one of the most meaningful head coaches in Penn State’s 138 years of football.
After the Joe Paterno scandal rocked the school, there were fears that the Nittany Lions would experience an SMU-like fall from grace. A national power one day, a doormat the next.
He righted the ship, led them to a 10-6 mark in Big Ten play in 2012 and 2013, and then bolted for the NFL.
No one blamed him for using the Penn State job as a stepping stone. If anything, fans, players and administrators wished him well after keeping the proud program afloat.
He led the Houston Texans to four playoff berths before a 0-4 start to the COVID season sent him packing. He has found the sledding much harder at Boston College (8-11), but Penn State has the kind of infrastructure that can give him a roster to win and win big from Day 1.
Financially, he’d also be palatable to Penn State AD Dr. Patrick Kraft because he makes just $5 million per season up in Chestnut Hill.
An incentive-laden contract with a base salary closer to $7 million would absolutely get the job done while pumping life and excitement back into the program.
Curt Cignetti
Indiana Head Coach
I’ll keep this one brief. Indiana would make it incredibly difficult for Penn State to poach Cignetti.
IU re-upped his contract last November after a hot start to his tenure in Bloomington, making him a $9 million man annually after bonuses.
It’s rumored that he’s in line for another pay bump now that he has the Hoosiers third in the national polls. A 10% bump would place him inside the top-10 best-compensated coaches in the sport and seemingly out of PSU’s reach.
