As I do each and every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday's college football card.
My primary goal here is to simply discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully help you make more informed wagers.
I write most of these up after betting them, which I log immediately on the Action App. For reference, I'll note what I'd still play each to.
Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my eight favorite Week 7 spots with a nice distribution throughout the day and night.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 23-18-2 (56.1%)
- Overall: 192-141-3 (57.7%)
Let's dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Saturday's Week 7 slate.
College Football Predictions, Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Missouri +3.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Michigan State -8.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Bowling Green +11 |
  | 2:30 p.m. | Kent State -2.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Oregon State +3 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Georgia State +3 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Auburn +3.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | USC -2.5 |
Missouri +3.5 vs. Alabama
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
This game all comes down to what you make of Missouri so far against a very weak schedule that ranks outside the top 150.
On the other side, we have a much better idea of who this Alabama team is following games against Vanderbilt, Georgia and Florida State across one of the nation's most difficult schedules so far this season.
If you believe in Missouri, you're probably taking the 3.5 like me. If not, you're probably looking to fade the Tigers. Regardless, it really is a dream situational spot with Missouri coming off a bye for its sixth straight home game to start the season.
The Tigers should come in as the much fresher team and benefit from extra preparation in addition to increased health with the return of starting cornerback Drey Norwood and tight end Jordon Harris.
It's also worth mentioning that the Tigers played UMass prior to their bye week, which means they've basically had three full weeks to prepare new wrinkles and get healthier for this matchup against an Alabama team that's coming off two straight wars against Georgia and Vanderbilt in back-to-back weeks. That's a meaningful difference.
The one lingering injury question for Missouri is a big one with stud left tackle Cayden Green. He missed the past two games with a leg injury, but did get some reps in practice early this week.
Head coach Eli Drinkwitz said he's officially questionable, and we won't know more until later in the week.
His potential absence looms large since his backup, Jayven Richardson, even struggled against UMass, allowing four pressures and two sacks. His status could swing this result.
With Green, Missouri won't need as much tight end help in pass protection and can get YAC monster Kevin Coleman Jr. on the field more frequently, making the offense much more potent, Meanwhile, his absence could lead to one or two more drive-killing sacks or Pribula mistakes.
There's no questioning that Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has looked drastically better since the dud in Tallahassee to open the season, but the Tide were still a few bounces from losing both games against the only quality competition they've faced since.
If they even dropped one of those two, we might be having a much different conversation ahead of this matchup.
I normally don't rate Missouri as having a super elite home-field advantage, but given the circumstances, this is as juiced up as it will ever be with Columbia getting its first matchup of top-15 teams since 1979.
For what it's worth, Eli Drinkwitz has gone 10-3 ATS (76.9%) as a home underdog during his tenure at Missouri.
So, who exactly is this Missouri team? Well, it all starts with Ahmad Hardy, who has arguably been the nation's best running back in Missouri's heavy outside zone scheme.
Hardy leads the country in yards after contact with 551. That's more than 17 teams have rushed for in total this season, including LSU and South Carolina.
And it's not just Hardy. Jamal Roberts has also averaged over 7.0 yards per carry, while Pribula can also contribute with his legs. That's a formula that has given Alabama's defense fits over the past two seasons.
That run game keeps Missouri ahead of the sticks as well as any team in the country, which has led to the nation's second-highest third-down conversion rate, trailing only Navy. It also sets up nice, easy short passes for Pribula, who's living in the 0-10 yard range, where he has completed 62-of-67 passes.
The receivers are dynamic after the catch, and the entire operation just sucks the life out of games, with Missouri leading the country in time of possession at nearly 40 minutes per game.
That offensive style marries perfectly with a dominant defense that has allowed nothing on the ground and can generate elite pressure in known passing situations thanks to a pair of elite edge rushers in Zion Young and Georgia transfer Damon Wilson, who each rank in the top five among all P4 edge rushers in pressure rate.
Just like on the offensive side of the ball, Missouri ranks second nationally in third-down conversion rate on defense. Now, if you're an Alabama backer, you can just point to Missouri's weak strength of schedule, which is a valid counterargument.
So, can this approach work against Alabama? I believe so.
We saw Florida State control the game from start to finish against the Tide by running the ball 49 times for 230 yards in a 14-point victory. And in the last two close victories, Georgia and Vanderbilt combined for 48 rushes for 377 yards for an average of nearly eight yards per clip.
This Alabama defense remains vulnerable against the run and doesn't have the same elite talent along the defensive line that we became so accustomed to seeing under Nick Saban. On the season, the Tide rank outside the top 100 in sacks per game.
On the other side of the ball, Alabama has really struggled to get any consistent run game going (although it's better with Jam Miller back), which will allow Missouri's tremendous pass rush to get after Simpson, who hasn't seen a pass rush at this level yet.
Can the secondary hold up against the elite Tide receivers? That's my biggest concern by far.
Missouri's secondary can't cover the elite Tide receivers in space. You can expect plenty of zone on the back end to limit the explosive plays and hopefully bait Simpson into a mistake or two, which will become much more likely if the Missouri pass rush can get home.
Keep in mind that Alabama also leads the country in turnover margin with 10 takeaways to only one giveaway (just one fumble that it recovered), so don't be surprised if a few bounces go Missouri's way in a dream spot on the schedule.
Simpson has played clean football with 13 touchdowns to just one interception, but he does have four turnover-worthy plays.
Ultimately, I just don't have a ton separating the top of the SEC from the next tier.
Throw in the situation and some matchup advantages for the Tigers, and I like anything at a field goal or better against a Tide team that has certainly had its fair share of road woes in recent seasons.
Hopefully, Missouri can use the preparation edge and home crowd to jump out to an early lead, where it's built to thrive, while getting too far behind could spell doom for this offense. I can't wait for this one.
Notable Nugget
Alabama is just 7-13 ATS (35%) in true road games since 2021, failing to cover by nearly a touchdown per game, including 2-5 ATS vs. ranked opponents.
Pick: Missouri +3.5 (Play to +3)
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Michigan State -8.5 vs. UCLA
12 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
This is obviously a tough spot for the Bruins after pulling off one of the most shocking upsets of the season last week against Penn State as 24.5-point underdogs.
Now, they must regain focus for a road trip out east for a noon ET kick (9 a.m. body clock for UCLA) against Michigan State.
UCLA deserved that victory last week, but I believe it benefited immensely from the situational spot with Penn State coming off a devastating overtime loss against Oregon in a game it had circled since the end of last season.
The Nittany Lions were also the team in that instance that had to deal with traveling across multiple time zones.
UCLA also had a new play-caller in Jerry Neuheisel, who added some new wrinkles that really unleashed Nico Iamaleava's legs. Well, that game is now on film.
Additionally, Michigan State should get a few key bodies back this week on defense, and the Spartans have done a respectable job of containing the QB run game thanks to a very underrated linebacker room.
From a matchup perspective, getting pressure on Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles is the most effective way to completely neuter Michigan State's offense, which has lost multiple offensive linemen to injury, forcing its right tackle to move to the left side in recent weeks.
It's a major area of weakness, which is troubling for Chiles, who has performed at an extremely poor level when opposing defenses can get pressure. That's when all of the mistakes come.
Well, fortunately for Chiles, who has been pressured at one of the 25 highest rates in the country, UCLA has generated pressure at one of the two lowest rates among all P4 teams (along with North Carolina) at right around 20%.
The Michigan State offensive line has a chance to hold up in this one to allow its talented receivers time to win one-on-one battles on the outside, which will rarely be a luxury for this Spartans team in Big Ten play.
Yes, the Bruins have played a fairly difficult schedule, but the defense still ranks dead last nationally in Success Rate allowed. The talent on that side of the ball has dropped precipitously after a number of NFL departures in the offseason.
There's one cornerback I really like, in addition to an interior defensive lineman. The linebacker group also has a few playmakers.
But this is still a group that couldn't come close to getting a stop against New Mexico and trailed Northwestern, 17-0, in the second half before a late rally fell short in the following week.
The newly appointed hires at head coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator have certainly implemented positive changes and injected life into the previously corpse-like Bruins.
Nico has also looked much better at quarterback over the past few weeks, but the offensive line remains very poor. The wide receiver room is also underwhelming as a whole.
Plus, this will be an extremely difficult situational spot in a game; I project it a bit over 10.
For what it's worth, I did split up my bet between full game (-8.5) and 1H -4.5.
I usually love what I see during the scripted portion of games under MSU head coach Jonathan Smith, and there's a real chance UCLA comes out a bit lethargic for an early kick in the Eastern Time Zone following last week's monumental upset.
While Michigan State does come off two tough road games (with a bye in between) against USC and Nebraska with Indiana on deck, I do expect a fully focused effort, as the Spartans basically need this game for any shot at getting to a bowl.
In the interest of full transparency, I have the least confidence in this pick (among the eight spots) with so much uncertainty following all of the recent staff changes for the Bruins, who also have the superior special teams.
It's possible the old staff was just completely incompetent, and I'm not upgrading UCLA enough.
Plus, I don't love needing Michigan State to win by a real margin, so it's certainly a game I may look to middle live if Michigan State gets up early, so make sure you keep an eye out on the Action App.
Regardless, I still clicked submit on this wager since this is still a spectacular situational spot and a decent matchup for the Spartans against a UCLA team I was super low on coming into the season.
Notable Nugget
Surprisingly, teams coming off of an upset as more than three-touchdown underdogs have gone 29-15 (65.9%) ATS the following week as underdogs.
However, the four West Coast Big Ten teams have gone just 7-12 ATS (36.8%) in conference road games when traveling across at least one time zone since joining the league.
Pick: Michigan State -8.5 (Play to -9)
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Bowling Green +11 vs. Toledo
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
I always look forward to the Battle of I-75 in a matchup between two schools located just 20 miles apart.
Toledo, which leads the all-time series, 43-42-4, will have revenge on its mind after the Falcons took back the trophy last season.
However, compared to my projections, this is just too many points (against a generally unreliable favorite) in a decent matchup for Bowling Green, which will benefit from two weeks of preparation following its bye.
Now, Toledo also enjoyed a bye week, but I believe those hold more value early in the season for a team like Bowling Green that dealt with significant roster and staff turnover in the offseason.
Toledo does boast the best defense in the league by a wide margin. The Rockets will always feature a defensive line that can get after opposing quarterbacks, and they once again have an elite secondary with zero weaknesses.
Cornerback Avery Smith leads the country with a minuscule 4.9 yards per reception allowed (39 yards on 22 targets), and fellow outside corner Andre Fuller has arguably been just as dominant. Meanwhile, safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren will be another defensive back Toledo puts in the NFL.
The way to attack this Toledo stop unit is primarily on the ground, while mixing in some well-timed short, quick passes. On the season, the Toledo defense ranks in the top 10 in Passing Success Rate allowed but slightly below average in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
You have to methodically move the ball down the field against the Rockets, who excel at limiting explosive plays.
Fortunately for the Falcons, that's the only way they're capable of moving the ball with their extremely run-heavy offense behind an uber-experienced offensive line.
The Falcons have one of the least explosive offenses in the country and will rarely look to attack deep with quarterback Drew Pyne, who has the lowest aDOT (5.9 yards) among 126 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks.
Toledo's defense has also benefited from an extremely favorable schedule of opposing rush offenses.
The Rockets have wins over Morgan State, Western Kentucky, Western Michigan and Akron. None of those four teams has any semblance of a rushing attack, while Bowling Green ranks in the top 40 nationally at 4.8 yards per carry.
The Falcons accomplished that against a schedule of opponents that ranks in the top 40 nationally in difficulty, highlighted by road games against Ohio, Louisville and Cincinnati. Conversely, Toledo's strength of schedule sits outside the top 130.
Additionally, Toledo's most recent victory came in blowout fashion over Akron, which played without starting quarterback Ben Finley and a number of other key starters. There's an enormous drop-off at quarterback from Finley to his backups.
Meanwhile, Bowling Green's most recent result came in a loss at Ohio, but the Falcons got fairly unlucky due to a tipped pick-six, a red-zone interception and another lost fumble by the backup quarterback that led to a short-field touchdown after Pyne left with an injury.
Pyne wasn't the same after returning to action for an offense that put up nearly 300 yards in the first half. I expect that his ankle shouldn't be an issue after two weeks off, but it's certainly worth noting.
When Toledo has the ball, you never know what you will get with the enigmatic Tucker Gleason — one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the country on a week-to-week basis.
I do worry about Bowling Green's weak outside cornerback group against the MAC's best wide receiver corps. If Gleason has one of his good days, it could be a long day for the Falcons, who are also simply not built to play from too far behind.
However, their best cornerback does at least play in the slot, which is critical against Junior Vandeross III — arguably the best wideout in the conference. He primarily lines up in the slot, similar to Ohio's Chase Hendricks, who led the nation in receiving prior to facing Bowling Green, which held him to just one catch for 25 yards.
The Falcons have also really struggled to contain opposing tight ends, but Toledo doesn't really utilize that position in the passing game.
Toledo's rushing attack has improved after last year's horror show due to the arrival of P4 transfer Chip Trayanum, but it's still not elite due to continued deficiencies along the offensive line.
I don't envision the Rockets having an abundance of success churning out yards on the ground against a BG rush defense that has held up relatively well so far.
As a result, this will come down to Gleason, who will hopefully have one of his off days where he can't hit the broad side of a barn.
Look no further than his two most recent games to start off 2025 MAC play.
Against Western Michigan, he finished 15-of-30 for 89 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. He then followed that up with a sparkling 16-of-19 performance vs. Akron for 237 yards with three touchdowns and no picks.
Gleason has been pressured on nearly 37% of his dropbacks (bad), and his numbers fall off a cliff (much more than a normal decline) when pressured with plenty of turnover-worthy plays.
However, that's not an overwhelming strength of the BG defense, which will need Myles Bradley to create some chaos off the edge.
If Gleason brings his A-game, this could get very dicey, but I'm willing to take a chance with the home 'dog in a rivalry game coming off a bye with a new staff and roster, especially since I project this spread closer to +8.5.
Plus, the Falcons will at least attack the weakest part of this Rockets defense, while shortening the game with clock-bleeding drives. I also really fancy their special teams for a MAC school, which certainly doesn't hurt.
Notable Nugget
Over the past five seasons, Toledo head coach Jason Candle has had the most outright losses (16) of any coach as a favorite.
That includes just a 16-7 SU record as a double-digit favorite (7-7 SU when favored between 10-17) with a -22% ROI on the moneyline. That includes an upset loss earlier this season against Western Michigan.
Over that span, only the now-retired Mack Brown was less profitable in that role.
Pick: Bowling Green +11 (Play to +10.5)
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Kent State -2.5 vs. UMass
2:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
It's a national travesty that this game will not be on national television — only if you bet actual dollars on it. If you don't wager on it, yes, this will be completely unwatchable.
Sadly, I'm a masochist and did click submit on Kent State -2.5.
If you told me before the season that I would've bet the Golden Flashes as a favorite, I would have assumed I ended up doing so from a psychiatric ward.
Yet, I somehow found myself still in my own home doing so with a clear head (although that's also what an insane person would say).
So, why am I betting a Kent State team that has gone 1-25 over its past 26 contests and hasn't been favored against an FBS opponent since 2022?
Well, I actually have the Golden Flashes power-rated ahead of the Minutemen as of this moment for three primary reasons:
- Kent State has looked much more functional than I had assumed going into the season. Keep in mind this team lost its head coach in the offseason due to a scandal and saw its defensive coordinator leave for an FCS assistant role in the summer.
- The emergence of true freshman quarterback Dru DeShields. He looks like the real deal for a team I thought would have completely incompetent quarterback play all season long. Kent State even held him out last week at Oklahoma to prevent an injury ahead of league play, especially with its most winnable FBS game on deck. This is a big deal for the Golden Flashes, who have lost 26 straight against FBS opponents since beating Buffalo back in 2022. Yes, it's been almost three years.
- UMass is in complete disarray from top to bottom and in much worse shape injury-wise.
Keep in mind, Kent State has also played a much more difficult schedule. In fact, the Golden Flashes have played one of the five toughest in the country with a trio of road games against ranked opponents in Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Florida State.
They also almost upset Buffalo in their MAC home opener and did at least take care of business against their FCS opponent. That's more than UMass can say after getting blown out in their MAC home opener vs. Western Michigan and losing to an even worse FCS school in Bryant.
The Minutemen opened the season with a 75-yard touchdown drive against Temple. Since that score, against their four FBS foes, they have scored a grand total of two touchdowns, which both came on 21-yard drives following a blocked punt and a fluke interception.
Kent State has found its answer at quarterback with DeShields, who went 22-of-32 for 279 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against Buffalo. He even fared well against FSU and Texas Tech, considering the enormous talent disparities.
Conversely, UMass continues to search for answers under center with an ongoing rotation.
DeShields has thrown five touchdowns to just one interception while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. In comparison, three UMass quarterbacks have combined to throw for only one touchdown and four interceptions (4 BTT to 8 TWP) against a significantly easier schedule of opposing defenses.
These are undoubtedly two of the worst teams in the country. Neither will have much success running the ball, and the special teams for both are a calamity. The difference, in my opinion, will be that Kent State has the superior quarterback play.
Look, I wouldn't blame you for completely passing on this game.
Losing money betting on Kent State as a favorite won't faze me in the least after decades of betting on bad teams. But if that sounds potentially tilting to you, there are so many other games on the board to choose from.
However, if you do decide to come along for the ride, we'll at least have some fun on X during the game.
While everybody else tweets about the Red River Rivalry and Oregon-Indiana, I will make sure the world stays up to date on this mess — which hopefully ends with Kent State ending its long FBS win drought (by at least three points).
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Kent State is the least profitable team to back in all of college football with a 42.5% cover rate and a -17.5% ROI. UMass isn't too far behind at 43.5% and -15.6%, respectively.
Pick: Kent State -2.5
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Oregon State +3 vs. Wake Forest
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
This sets up as a super weird spot for the Demon Deacons, who have to travel across the country for a second-straight road game to take on a winless nonconference opponent.
I would not be shocked in the least if they come out extremely flat after two extremely hard-fought ACC battles.
Wake Forest has a bye next week, followed by conference clashes with SMU, Florida State and Virginia. Why does that matter?
Well, star running back Demond Claiborne left last week's game with an injury, and starting quarterback Robby Ashford has also been hobbled over the past two weeks.
As a result, there's a chance Claiborne sits and Wake doesn't run Ashford as much, which would severely impact an already limited offense.
Oregon State has had a disastrous 0-6 start to the season. However, the Beavers undoubtedly have continued to fight every week under head coach Trent Bray.
They've just been extremely unlucky in almost every facet. Amazingly, they've been the unluckiest team over the past two weeks in terms of net Success Rate — a battle they have won in four of their six losses.
Last week on the road at App State, they finished with a +102 net yards advantage (456-354). And despite a -3 turnover margin, they still had a chance to win before getting stuffed at the goal line in the final minutes on four consecutive plays.
They also missed a chip-shot field goal and threw an interception inside the 5-yard line.
Against Houston at home the week prior, they once again won the yardage battle (390-352) and dominated on a down-to-down basis, but came up on the short end of the stick in overtime after blowing a 14-point fourth quarter lead and missing the potential game-winning field goal at the end of regulation.
Even in a home loss against Fresno State, they outgained the Bulldogs, 528-318, in another contest where they led in the fourth quarter.
It's been Murphy's Law for the Beavers, who have yet to catch a single break against one of the 20 toughest schedules in the country. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has played a significantly easier schedule.
Lastly, Oregon State's special teams deserve a ton of blame for the 0-6 start. This team has inarguably been the worst in the nation in that department. If it just wasn't a complete disaster, the Beavers would probably be sitting at 3-3 instead of 0-6.
They did at least fire their special teams coordinator this week, so there's at least upside with some potential changes on that front.
I expect a game effort from the desperate Beavers, who are way overdue to get a few bounces against a potentially shorthanded Wake Forest team that could get caught sleepwalking in a tough situational spot.
Notable Nugget
Wake Forest has only played two games in the Pacific Time Zone over the past 20 years, including a push as a three-point favorite at Stanford last season.
The only other instance came back in 2010 in a 68-24 blowout loss also on the farm at Stanford.
Pick: Oregon State +3
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Georgia State +3 vs. Appalachian State
3:30 p.m. ⋅ ESPN+
First off, Georgia State has played one of the 10 most difficult schedules in the country. Just take a look at its four losses:
- at Ole Miss
- James Madison
- vs. Memphis
- at Vanderbilt
It doesn't get much more brutal than that, especially for a Sun Belt team.
Meanwhile, App State ranks 128th in that department with its three victories coming against Lindenwood, Charlotte and Oregon State in a game it should have lost last week.
Meanwhile, its two true road games resulted in blowout losses against Boise State and Southern Miss.
It's also been an emotional two-week stretch for the Mountaineers after the unfortunate passing of former head coach Shawn Clark, so I wouldn't be surprised if this is a bit of a crash spot after last week's miraculous win that required a late goal-line stop.
Ultimately, we have two teams with drastically different strengths of schedules that are impacting the perception of the caliber of each respective squad.
Additionally, both are coming off results that easily could have been flipped, with Georgia State losing a dead-even game against the class of the conference due to a few special teams blunders, while App State needed every last second to hold on vs. winless Oregon State in a game it got statistically dominated on a down-to-down basis.
In fact, from a net Success Rate perspective, the Mountaineers had the luckiest win of Week 6.
I also don't mind the matchup.
App State's run defense has been downright dominant, but Georgia State can't run the ball. What the Panthers can do is throw the rock around with the well-traveled TJ Finley, who has played very well against a gauntlet of opponents since taking over under center.
He should have plenty of success dropping back against a porous Mountaineer secondary that ranks outside the top 90 in EPA and Success Rate after allowing Maalik Murphy to throw for 360 last week.
Look out for stud wide receiver Ted Hurst to have a big day at the office and tight end Camden Overton-Howard to carry his momentum over after a breakout game vs. JMU.
The trench play for Georgia State is miserable on both sides of the ball, which is a bit concerning, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where they may struggle to contain Arkansas transfer running back Rashod Dubinion.
However, it's not as bad as it has looked, given the quality of competition.
Regardless, I have this as more of a coin-flip game, and the Panthers will benefit from seeing film on some of the new-designed stuff App State did last week in quarterback JJ Kohl's first start.
Plus, Georgia State did look like a completely different team last Saturday following its bye, which makes sense with a brand-new quarterback and two new coordinators that had to deal with plenty of roster turnover across a vicious schedule over the first month of the season.
There's some real quality talent on this offense that can exploit App State's primary defensive deficiencies.
Notable Nugget
Teams like Georgia State (1-4 ATS) with a sub-25% cover rate have hit at a 57% rate historically as an underdog in Games 5 and 6.
Pick: Georgia State +3
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Auburn +3.5 vs. Georgia
7:30 p.m. ⋅ ABC
Georgia arguably should have beaten Alabama, but it probably should have lost at Tennessee. A rightful wash, but this just isn't the same elite-tier Georgia team we saw a few years ago.
And similar to my Alabama-Missouri breakdown, I just don't think there's as wide a gap between the top SEC teams and the second-tier (where Auburn falls) than the market presumes.
Consequently, I just can't get this spread even to a field goal after adjusting for the spot and home-field advantage.
I happily took the hook with the home Tigers, who will come off a much-needed bye week after one of the nation's most vicious schedules to start the season with three road games against Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas A&M.
This will mark Auburn's first marquee home game, which is even more critical for this specific squad with Jackson Arnold at the helm.
He clearly struggled in hostile environments with the pre-snap communication between him and Hugh Freeze, who now can act as Arnold's personal movie director before each play in the friendly confines of Jordan-Hare Stadium.
That's massive for a limited quarterback like Arnold, who struggles to read defenses and change plays on his own.
He may also benefit greatly from the bye week in a brand-new offense after a number of very difficult tests to start 2025, where the timing was clearly off with his receivers.
That's even more important against a Georgia defense that remains vulnerable on the back end in coverage, which could lead to banner days for the talented Auburn wide receivers.
It should also result in increased success on passing downs, an area where Arnold struggled on the road.
Georgia also doesn't boast the same ferocious pass rush as your older brother's version of the Dawgs, who only have seven sacks on the entire season.
Auburn's front struggled to contain all of the twists and stunts it saw from Texas A&M and Oklahoma, but that hasn't really been a strength of a Bulldog pass rush that ranks 108th in sacks per game.
For comparison, the Aggies and Sooners rank in the top six nationally and top 15 if you remove matchups against Auburn.
And while Georgia's run defense has graded out exceptionally well, it has yet to really face a mobile quarterback like Arnold, and those have given Kirby Smart's defenses fits in the past.
Expect Freeze, one of the best play designers and game-planners in the sport, to attack those vulnerabilities, especially with a full two weeks to prepare for this particular matchup with the healthiest roster he has had all season.
When Georgia has the ball, Auburn's secondary will need to step up against the Georgia wideouts, who will have an advantage on the outside.
However, I don't expect the Bulldogs to get much on the ground against an immovable Tiger run defense that ranks in the top three nationally in both EPA allowed and Success Rate allowed.
That should open up opportunities for Auburn's elite pass rushers, led by Keldric Faulk, to wreak Havoc on Gunner Stockton, whose completion percentage drops nearly 35 percentage points when under pressure compared to when kept clean.
To me, Auburn profiles as a play-on team in big games at home this season and either an avoid or fade on the road.
Although, the Tigers did win easily in Waco and actually had chances to pull off upsets in both Norman (despite Venables' inside knowledge of Arnold's strengths and weaknesses) and College Station — two of the toughest places to play in the country — even with those pre-snap communication limitations.
The Tigers did get severely outplayed by the Aggies but easily could have beaten the Sooners if not for a few brutal calls that went against them.
I'd argue Auburn has the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball in this game and has the more talented skill-position group in a matchup of two vulnerable secondaries.
Georgia has the better quarterback, which matters, but I don't consider Stockton to be elite. Throw in the spot and the Freeze edge at home off the bye, and I had to take the hook here with the home pup.
Notable Nugget
Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze owns a 33-17 ATS (66%) record as an underdog, covering by over six points per game. That includes an 18-6 (75%) mark when catching a touchdown or less, covering by an average of just under 11 points per game.
Pick: Auburn +3.5
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USC -2.5 vs. Michigan
7:30 p.m. ⋅ NBC
On the surface, this is the best situational spot of the season for the Trojans, who will certainly benefit from a bye week, which will allow them a chance to get healthy on both sides of the ball.
The Big Ten travel factor across time zones is also in play for the Wolverines, who won an ugly game last week against a severely shorthanded Wisconsin team that started its third-string quarterback.
Despite having a chance to win late vs. Illinois, the Trojans didn't look great in Champaign.
However, that was one of the worst situational spots of the season. USC had to deal with tough travel for the earliest kick of the day after having the latest start time in the previous week.
It also had to face an Illinois team that got completely embarrassed the week prior against Indiana. The Trojans were undoubtedly going to get the Illini's best effort.
More importantly, USC played that game with one hand tied behind its back due to significant injuries, in addition to a food poisoning bout the night before the game that impacted a few key starters.
That also led to a late scratch of its best defensive player, Kamari Ramsey, who wears the green dot. His absence would be meaningful regardless, but finding out less than 24 hours prior to kick is less than ideal, especially with other injuries in the secondary.
The Trojans also lost starting cornerback DeCarlos Nicholson during that game, which left them with two freshmen on the outside and a true freshman safety thrown into the fire at slot cornerback in his first real collegiate action.
That's a nightmare scenario without your green dot and a few key defensive linemen dealing with food poisoning.
Things will look much different for USC off the bye with Ramsey and Nicholson back. There's also a chance Ramsey could see more time at his more natural safety position with the potential season debut of highly-touted freshman Alex Graham in the slot.
Regardless, it won't be a complete disaster, and highly-respected defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn will surely benefit from the two weeks leading up to this game.
Additionally, the USC offense wasn't at full strength in Champaign with injured star wideout Ja'Kobi Lane playing less than half of the offensive snaps.
More importantly, the Trojans were without stud left tackle Elijah Paige, who suffered an injury against Michigan State.
That forced right tackle Justin Tauanuu to move to the left side, where he struggled, and a guard to fill his vacancy. Well, it looks like Paige — the quarterback of that group up front — will return this week, and Lane should be closer to 100%.
It can't be overstated how critical that is for a USC offense that I consider one of the best in the nation.
Heading into the Illinois game, everybody was talking about USC as a potential College Football Playoff sleeper. Now, all of those same people have seemingly completely abandoned ship after one road loss in a brutal spot with material injuries (and a food poisoning breakout) against a ranked team on a last-second field goal?
Time to buy low with the now much healthier Trojans in an advantageous situational spot against a Michigan offense that still lacks the weapons to fully exploit some of the holes on the USC defense.
At full strength, USC has the best offense in the country for my money.
While Michigan does have a very good defense, there are some holes in the secondary that can be exploited by quarterback Jayden Maiava, who has completed 70% of his passes (with 11 touchdowns to just one pick) while leading the country with 11.3 yards per attempt.
On the season, he's one of five quarterbacks with an NFL QB Rating north of 130.
For reference, stud Michigan freshman Bryce Underwood, who has a very bright future in Ann Arbor, ranks 84th in that department (88.1) among 125 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks.
Not all of that is on Underwood, who continues to improve with each passing week. While he does have only two big-time throws to four turnover-worthy plays, drops have plagued an underwhelming wide receiver room (although Andrew Marsh's recent emergence is noteworthy), and the offensive line still has issues.
Running back Justice Haynes and company will find success on the ground against USC.
But I don't think it will be enough to keep up with a fully healthy Trojan offensive machine with a potential top-five quarterback, top-three receiver duo and dynamic rushing attack led by stud transfer Waymond Jordan (who's averaging 7.0 yards per carry), which is where it all starts for a Lincoln Riley attack.
Anything under a field goal is good, in my opinion.
Notable Nugget
Since the Big Ten added the West Coast teams prior to the start of last season, teams traveling two-plus time zones have gone 12-21 both ATS and SU (36.4%) in league play.
Pick: USC -2.5
