The College Football Playoff Rankings from last week are sure to change after a week of upset victories in ACC play.
Pitt took charge with a commanding victory over Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have a low probability of making the conference title game but could still spoil Georgia's future plans during Rivalry Week.
The biggest topic for the committee is the placement of Miami, which beat a top-10 Notre Dame team to open the season.
The new format of the playoff releases the top four seeds from conference championship games. With the crumble of the ACC, there's an outside possibility that a Group of Five conference champion could leap a power conference for a playoff spot.
It's also possible that the SEC will get a minimum of five teams in, consuming nearly half of the playoff spots.
The question remains if it's more advantageous to miss a conference championship game than risk the chance of losing a day before the committee’s final decision. Seeds 5-8 will be highly coveted by power conference teams to host a playoff game after missing a conference championship game.
Our futures piece will take a look inside our Power 4 conferences each week, featuring noteworthy wagers that could be ripe for investment before the committee rankings are released.
With that said, let's dive into our college football futures and NCAAF picks ahead of the Week 14 College Football Playoff rankings release.
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ACC
Conference Contenders: Virginia (6-1), SMU (6-1), Pittsburgh (6-1), Georgia Tech (5-2), Duke (4-2), Miami (4-2)
Bet to Make Now: SMU to Make CFP (+120)
Both SMU and Virginia are headed toward a collision in Charlotte for the conference championship. Each team sits in the Week 14 market as a double-digit favorite over their opponents, as Virginia hosts Virginia Tech and SMU heads to California.
Assuming both the Cavaliers and Mustangs survive, SMU would be a touchdown favorite over Virginia in the ACC Championship.
The play is SMU, which sits as a -500 favorite over Cal and is projected at -290 against the Hoos in the ACC Championship game. Those two numbers parlayed together give SMU true value at -160 — not the current plus-money price in the market.
Big Ten
Conference Contenders: Indiana (8-0), Ohio State (8-0), Michigan (7-1), Oregon (7-1)
Bet to Make Now: Indiana to Win Big Ten (+150)
This column's pick of Oregon to win the National Championship looks to be even sweeter entering rivalry week.
The Ducks will flock to Seattle to face Washington, where a win all but secures a seed that will give them a home game in Eugene.
Head coach Dan Lanning is all but locked out of the Big Ten Championship unless Michigan beats Ohio State for a fifth consecutive time.
The Wolverines have virtually no path to the conference title game, as a win over the Buckeyes also requires an Oregon loss to Washington. There's no value in the current +500 for Michigan to make the playoff, as a number of improbable dominoes must fall.
There aren't many value plays on the board for Ohio State and Indiana, as the Hoosiers are guaranteed a spot in the Big Ten Championship.
The Buckeyes could still be booted with a loss to the Wolverines, making a Big Ten Championship bet on Indiana the correct path.
Curt Cignetti’s team would line as a four-point underdog to Ohio State, fetching a moneyline of +155. The current +150 on Indiana to win the Big Ten doesn't contain any value, but it does meet expectations of the correct number.
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Big 12
Conference Contenders: Texas Tech (7-1), BYU (7-1), Utah (6-2), Arizona State (6-2)
Bet to Make Now: Texas Tech to Make CFP Semifinals (+160)
BYU and Texas Tech will meet once again if both teams secure victories over UCF and West Virginia, respectively. Both the Cougars and Red Raiders are heavy favorites in Week 14, and there's almost no value on either team for a rematch in Arlington.
BYU projects as an 8-point underdog to Texas Tech on a neutral field, giving minimal value to a +290 number for the conference.
There are exotics in the market that have Texas Tech properly priced to make the playoff semifinals at +160, an accurate number considering only four teams are power-rated higher than the Red Raiders.
Texas Tech would be a massive favorite as the 5-seed in the playoff, hosting the Group of Five winner. A potential head-to-head matchup against Georgia would be a pick'em, giving the semifinal number fair value.
SEC
Conference Contenders: Texas A&M (7-0), Georgia (7-1), Alabama (6-1), Ole Miss (6-1)
Bet to Make Now: Ole Miss to Make CFP Quarterfinals (-150)
The SEC Championship picture remains unclear.
If Texas defeats Texas A&M, Georgia will slip into the conference championship against Alabama. If the Crimson Tide also lose, Georgia and Ole Miss would compete in Atlanta.
The College Football Playoff could have ramifications as well, as Georgia is expected to float into the top four seeds. A loss by Alabama and Texas A&M could have those teams hosting first-round games.
Despite the noise around Lane Kiffin’s decision post-Egg Bowl, there's value in the market on Ole Miss futures. The Rebels are all but assured a 5- or 6-seed, drawing either a Group of Five team or the ACC champion.
Either of those teams would be a massive underdog in an opening-round game in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Ole Miss would be nowhere near a -150 home favorite to North Texas, Tulane, SMU or Virginia; it would be way longer. The current number on the Rebels to make the quarterfinals at -150 has plenty of value.
