Greg Olsen recently pointed out that teams should not match up against Seattle��s heavy personnel on early downs with base because the Seahawks were using it to set up the pass. The Rams countered that last week and Sam Darnold had his worst game of the season, throwing 4 interceptions. I think it makes sense for Seattle to respond with a more run heavy game plan here, and this matchup supports it because the Titans have one of the worst run defenses in the league, ranking 30th in DVOA. As nearly 14 point favorites, this is the exact type of spot where Seattle should lean on the run, shorten the game, and put Darnold in fewer obvious passing situations. Darnold also tends to make his completions count since he ranks 2nd in the league with 63.5 yards per game on throws 20+ yards downfield. The Titans have allowed the 4th highest yards per attempt on passes 20+ yards downfield. Those deeper attempts are great for this market because they are lower percentage throws, and when they are completed, they move the ball further down the field which lowers play volume, increases the likelihood of scoring, and helps create more run heavy scripts. So the game plan we want is pretty simple. Seattle runs the ball early and often, and when they take shots, they are deep ones. That combination gives Darnold fewer total attempts and fewer short, easy completions. I’m projecting him closer to 18.7 completions with around a 59% chance he stays under 19.5.

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