Avalanche at Blackhawks Betting Odds & Pick: Will Chicago’s Defense Hold Up?

Avalanche at Blackhawks Betting Odds & Pick: Will Chicago’s Defense Hold Up? article feature image
Credit:

Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago Blackhawks goaltender Robin Lehner (40).

Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks Odds

  • Avalanche odds: -110
  • Blackhawks odds -110
  • Over/Under: 6
  • Time: 4 p.m. ET

Last season, the Chicago Blackhawks were a mess defensively. No team in the NHL allowed more expected goals or high-danger chances against per 60 minutes (5-on-5, score + venue adjusted) than the Blackhawks did in 2018-19.

Compounding the problem was the fact that Chicago's goaltending situation was underwhelming. Corey Crawford was limited to just 39 games and his deputies, Cam Ward and Collin Delia weren't good.

It was pretty clear what the Blackhawks needed to do in the offseason to get themselves back into contention: fix the defense and shore up the goaltending. They got it half-right.

Thanks to the arrival of Robin Lehner, Chicago has the best goaltending tandem in the league so far. Lehner and Crawford have been a godsend, as the 'Hawks are still leaking on defense.

Per Natural Stat Trick, Chicago is allowing 2.69 expected goals and 13.2 high-danger chances against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this season. By those metrics, the Blackhawks are the second-worst defensive team in the NHL. Unbelievably, the 'Hawks are only allowing 2.12 goals against per hour, which is the sixth-best mark in the circuit.

That tells you that the Blackhawks owe their modest success this season to their goalies and if they truly want to make a run at the playoffs, they better fix things in their own end.

The good news on Friday is that the Blackhawks will face a depleted Colorado Avalanche team that is struggling to create offense. The Avalanche are still scoring — they have the second-highest shooting percentage at 5-on-5 — but they aren't generating a ton of scoring chances.

avalanche vs blackhawks odds-preview-over-under
Heatmap via HockeyViz.com

Despite leading the league with 3.22 goals for per 60 minutes, the Avalanche grade out as a mediocre team by expected goals. Their expected goals share is below 50% on the season and they are averaging the 15th-most expected goals for per 60 in the NHL this season.

Colorado's numbers should improve when it gets healthy, but for now this offense is being buoyed by hot shooting and hopefully it runs cold against a hot goalie.

Home-ice advantage in the NHL is worth right about 5%, so if you adjust this line against that, you'd get this Avalanche team (one without two of its best players) as -134 favorites on neutral ice. That is probably too high considering Friday's Avs lineup lacks depth without Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog and Collin Wilson.

I'd play the Blackhawks at any number better than -115.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.