Wild vs. Avalanche Betting Odds, Preview: Can Minnesota Slow Down MacKinnon, Avs?

Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche Betting Odds

• Wild odds: +145
• Avalanche odds: -165
• Over/Under: 6
• Time: 9 p.m. ET

Odds as of Saturday morning via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Oddsmakers had their eyes on the Avalanche from the second they opened the betting market for this season. The hype became even more real when season point totals came out, as the Avs were hung with an Over/Under of 100.5. That number was bet down pretty quickly, but it still stayed in the upper-90s all offseason.

On the surface, it made sense. Colorado was very strong down the stretch, made a run in the postseason and added talented depth players to a roster that was already ripe with star-power.

The number was flattering, but it was hard not to see why everybody was high on the Avs.

The market was not as excited about the Minnesota Wild. The Wild struggled last season, missing the playoffs and failing to excite anyone about their chances during a very vanilla 82-game

Under the hood things looked better for the Wild. Minnesota led the league in Expected Goals Against (xGA) in '18-19, allowing just 1.97 xGA/60. Even though the Wild's offensive numbers weren't as strong, they were one of two teams (Canadiens) to finish inside the top 10 in xG% and miss the postseason.

Colorado's season got off on the right foot on Thursday night with a 5-3 win over Calgary. The expected goals suggested the game was close to a coin flip, however.

The Wild were deserved losers against Nashville, though they held the lead going into the third period before capitulating. I won't spend anymore time on a one-game sample.

The projected goaltending matchup features Philipp Grubauer for the Avs and Devan Dubnyk for the Wild. Even though Dubnyk is probably more well-known to casual fans, Grubauer is clearly the better goaltender.

Projecting goaltending on a game-to-game basis is basically futile and I am really not concerned about Dubnyk's weaknesses as the Wild's defense protects him considerably. Dubnyk had the highest expected save percentage of any starting goaltender in the NHL last season.

Under Bruce Boudreau, Minnesota has become adept at turning games into 50/50 contests and that's what they will need to do on Saturday night to stay with a team that is a class above them in the talent department. Minnesota's ability to protect the house and keep shot attempts to the outside is almost second-to-none.

These odds project Colorado has a 60.4% chance of winning this game and while the Avs are rightfully favorites, that number is a bit too high against a Wild team that should be one of the best defensive squads in the circuit, despite a rough season opener.

Even though they lose this game more often than they win it, the line value is clearly with the Wild and I'd play the Wild at +135 or better.