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NHL Odds, Picks and Predictions: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Dallas Stars Game 4 Preview (Saturday, Sept 12.)

NHL Odds, Picks and Predictions: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Dallas Stars Game 4 Preview (Saturday, Sept 12.) article feature image

Dave Sandford/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Anton Khudobin

Game 4: Golden Knights vs. Stars Odds

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Golden Knights Odds -167 [BET NOW]
Stars Odds +143 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 5.5 (+108/-132) [BET NOW]
Time 8 p.m. ET

Odds updated as of Friday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Game 3 went exactly as planned for the Dallas Stars (and for those who bet on them). The Stars kept the game close, got big saves from their goaltender and came out on the right side of the overtime coin flip thanks to a goal by Alex Radulov.

Grease up the game. Get good goaltending. Convert your chances. That’s how Dallas will need to get results against the deeper, faster and more dynamic Golden Knights.

Vegas forward Alex Tuch noted after the game that the Knights probably deserved a better result and that’s a fair assessment if you look at the expected goals, which ended 4.22 to 2.27 in favor of the Knights in all situations. The game was much tighter at 5-on-5, though, where Vegas barely nudged Dallas in terms of expected goals (2.21 to 2).

Vegas being “the better team” won’t matter at all to the Stars. They’re prepared for that. They aren’t showing up to the arena looking to push the Knights into a first-to-five-wins type of game. Dallas is there to ugly up the game and keep Vegas within range long enough to steal the W. And it’s working.

The Golden Knights have yet to really find their second gear in this series.

5-on-5 Stat Golden Knights Stars
Goals 3 4
Expected Goals 5.36 4.86
Shot Attempts 125 117
High-danger scoring chances 27 21

Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.

Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.

xG numbers cited from Evolving Hockey.

Despite being down 2-1 and yet to put their best foot forward, the Golden Knights are still even money to win the Western Conference Final. The Stars are odds-on at -118, but the fact that the series line is this tight tells you just how good the Knights are.

The odds for Game 4 are just about where you’d expect them to be considering where the first three contests closed.

Odds Golden Knights Stars
Game 1 -175 +148
Game 2 -165 +140
Game 3 -175 +148
Game 4 -167 +143

Odds via DraftKings.

Game 4 Betting Pick

I see no reason to back off the Stars so long as they hover in this range. The Knights are the better team and are likely to win on Saturday, but the Stars are quite a tricky team to beat.

Dallas’ defense and goaltending keeps games tight and that’s all you’re asking for out of an underdog at this price. If the Stars are able to turn Game 4 into into a next-goal-wins type of contest deep into third, you’d much rather be holding a +143 ticket than a -167.

I think the market is still underestimating the Stars and would play them down to +140.

[Bet the Dallas Stars at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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