2020 Idaho Democratic Primary Odds: Joe Biden Favored to Win on Tuesday

2020 Idaho Democratic Primary Odds: Joe Biden Favored to Win on Tuesday article feature image

Photo credit: MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden

  • The betting favorite in all six states voting in the 2020 Democratic Primary on Tuesday, Joe Biden is a now -400 to secure the most delegates in Idaho as of noon ET.
  • The odds give the former Vice President a 71.88% implied probability of winning, up from a 57.1% implied probability just 18 hours ago.
  • Bernie Sanders is down to a +230 underdog, giving him a 27.23% implied probability of winning.

It’s amazing how fast things can change in the political world. Just a couple weeks ago, former vice president Joe Biden was a longshot to win a crowded Democratic primary race. Vermont senator Bernie Sanders was the clear frontrunner and looked to be gaining steam.

But then the South Carolina primary happened. Biden won in a landslide, easily beating his polls. That created a wave that saw Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar drop out of the race prior to Super Tuesday and endorse Biden. Super Tuesday, which once looked promising for Sanders, ultimately went to Biden.

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The former VP is now the favorite to win the nomination at a variety of European books, and it’s now just a three-person race with him, Sanders and Hawaii representative Tulsi Gabbard.

On Tuesday, March 10, the primary will heat up again as six states — Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington — all vote.

The candidates will compete for just 20 total delegates in Idaho, which makes up about 0.5% of the total number in the primary. Biden is currently the favorite to win the majority of those delegates; European book Betfair currently gives him -162 odds (bet $162 to win $100) to do so. That’s a juice-free implied probability of 61.9%.

Idaho is the second-closest race on Tuesday behind just Washington state. Sanders is a small +120 favorite (implied probability of 42.0%) to win a majority of delegates.

Politics site FiveThirtyEight is right in line with the betting market here, as they give Biden a 61% chance to win Idaho. They have Sanders at 45%; the reason it adds up to more than 100% is because both candidates get credit for winning in the event of a tie.

See the full Idaho primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.

2020 Idaho Democratic Primary Odds

If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -162 means that if you bet $162 and Joe Biden wins, you’d profit $100. And +120 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $120.

  • Joe Biden: -162, 57.1% implied probability
  • Bernie Sanders: +120, 42.0% implied probability
  • Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability

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