2020 Michigan Democratic Primary Odds: Joe Biden a Near Lock to Win This Swing State
Photo credit: Kyle Rivas/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden
- The betting favorite in all six states voting on Tuesday, Joe Biden is -3333 to secure the most delegates in Michigan -- an 85.6% implied probability.
- With 125 delegates, Michigan owns about 3.1% of the total number in the 2020 Democratic Primary, making it the biggest state on Tuesday's docket.
- Bernie Sanders is a +550 underdog, giving him a 13.6% implied probability of pulling off the upset.
It’s amazing how fast things can change in the political world. Just a couple weeks ago, former vice president Joe Biden was a longshot to win a crowded Democratic primary race. Vermont senator Bernie Sanders was the clear frontrunner and looked to be gaining steam.
But then the South Carolina primary happened. Biden won in a landslide, easily beating his polls. That created a wave that saw Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar drop out of the race prior to Super Tuesday and endorse Biden. Super Tuesday, which once looked promising for Sanders, ultimately went to Biden.
The former VP is now the favorite to win the nomination at a variety of European books, and it’s now just a three-person race with him, Sanders and Hawaii representative Tulsi Gabbard.
On Tuesday, March 10, the primary will heat up again as six states — Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington — all vote.
The candidates will compete for 125 total delegates in Michigan, which makes up about 3.1% of the total number in the primary. It’s the largest state up for grabs Tuesday, with Washington the second-largest with 89 delegates.
Biden is currently a huge favorite to win the majority of those delegates; European book Betfair currently gives him -3300 odds (bet $3,300 to win $100) to do so. That’s a juice-free implied probability of 85.6%.
Sanders is down at +550 to win Michigan, giving him an implied probability of just 13.6%. There’s a lot at stake in this race with Michigan being such an important swing state in the general election — if Sanders really underperforms, that would likely be a signal the race is essentially over heading into this summer’s convention.
Politics site FiveThirtyEight is even more bullish on Biden’s chances, giving him an overwhelming 98% chance to win a majority of the state’s delegates and Sanders just a 2% chance. Biden could really run up the score here.
See the full Michigan primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
2020 Michigan Democratic Primary Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -3300 means that if you bet $3,300 and Joe Biden wins, you’d profit $100. And +550 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $550.
- Joe Biden: -3300, 85.6% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +550, 13.6% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability