It's amazing how fast things can change in the political world. Just a couple weeks ago, former vice president Joe Biden was a longshot to win a crowded Democratic primary race. Vermont senator Bernie Sanders was the clear frontrunner and looked to be gaining steam.
But then the South Carolina primary happened. Biden won in a landslide, easily beating his polls. That created a wave that saw Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar drop out of the race prior to Super Tuesday and endorse Biden. Super Tuesday, which once looked promising for Sanders, ultimately went to Biden.
The former VP is now the favorite to win the nomination at a variety of European books, and it's now just a three-person race with him, Sanders and Hawaii representative Tulsi Gabbard.
On Tuesday, March 10, the primary will heat up again as six states — Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington — all vote.
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The candidates will compete for just 36 total delegates in Mississippi, which makes up about 0.9% of the total number in the primary. Biden is currently a huge favorite to win the majority of those delegates; European book Betfair currently gives him -10,000 odds (bet $10,000 to win $100) to do so. That’s a juice-free implied probability of 92.8%. This one seems to be a lock.
Sanders is down at +1400 to win Mississippi, giving him an implied probability of just 6.3%. Tulsi Gabbard, the only other candidate still in the race, is at 100-1 (+10000, or less than 1% implied probability) to win each state voting on Tuesday.
Politics site FiveThirtyEight agrees with the betting market: They're giving Biden a greater than 99% chance to win a majority of delegates in Mississippi, painting yet another dire picture for Sanders.
See the full Mississippi primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
2020 Mississippi Democratic Primary Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -10,000 means that if you bet $10,000 and Joe Biden wins, you’d profit $100. And +1400 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $1,400.
- Joe Biden: -10,000, 92.8% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +1400, 6.3% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability
