Manchester United vs. Chelsea
Saturday, 12:15 p.m. ET
Wembley Stadium, London, England

Moneyline
Manchester United +179
Chelsea +188
Draw +213

Total
2 goals (o-120)

Odds to Lift Trophy
Manchester United -115
Chelsea -105

Setting the Stage

Saturday’s FA Cup Final features two of the giants in England squaring off, with Manchester United taking on Chelsea. This game gives both of these teams a chance to win some hardware, which they failed to do over the course of this year. The opportunity is especially significant for Chelsea, who will be looking to make up for a very poor season on both the domestic and European fronts.

Both of these sides are quite stingy defensively, with Chelsea conceding 38 goals in the Premier League and Manchester United conceding 28, which was second in the league. They played each other twice during the season, with each team winning once.

The two things that I find interesting when looking at recent head-to-head meetings relates to expected goals (xG) from Understat. In the first meeting, host Chelsea were the far superior team, with an expected goal total of 1.84 compared to United’s 0.77 xG. Chelsea won that match. It was much closer in the reverse fixture, with Chelsea having 1.69 xG compared to Manchester United’s 1.30 xG.

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