Premier League Week 26 Betting Preview and Picks
Last week was another successful one in the Premier League for value plays, which have now earned +31.41 units on the season. This weekend there’s a pivotal Liverpool/Tottenham match on tap, and we’ll see if big favorites Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal can rebound after embarrassing losses. Most fans will also be hoping to see Burnley upset Manchester City to make the title race more interesting and it could happen– Burnley are responsible for the biggest payout of the season so far (+1125 at Chelsea in Week 1).
Here’s a look at the most recent results, season trends, biggest payouts and title odds along with value plays and market analysis for Week 26.
Week 25 Results:
Home 4 of 10 (+3.45 units)
Away 2 of 10 (+1.45 units)
Draw 4 of 10 (+3.36 units)
For the first time all season, home/away/draw were all profitable bets in Week 25 due to big upsets by Swansea (+1078) at home and Bournemouth (+911) on the road.
Home 110 of 250 (-2.36 units)
Away 71 of 250 (-40.32 units)
Draw 69 of 250 (+24.82 units)
Betting on draws continues to be profitable this season (+24.82 units) with four of the ten matches in Week 25 ending in stalemates.
Season’s Biggest Payouts:
Burnley (+1125) at Chelsea in Week 1
Swansea (+1078) vs. Liverpool in Week 24
Bournemouth (+911) at Chelsea in Week 25
Huddersfield (+875) vs. Man Utd in Week 9
Crystal Palace (+695) vs. Chelsea in Week 8
3 of the Top-8 Premier League payouts have happened in the last two matchweeks (Swansea +1078 vs. Liverpool, Bournemouth +911 at Chelsea, Swansea +610 vs. Arsenal)
4 of the Top-6 Premier League payouts have been outright wins against Chelsea (Burnley +1125, Bournemouth +911, Crystal Palace +695, West Ham +655)
Title Odds via 5Dimes:
Manchester City -10000 (68 points)
Manchester United +10000 (53 points)
Chelsea +15000 (50 points)
Liverpool +22500 (50 points)
Tottenham +20000 (48 points)
Manchester City have widened their gap at the top of the table after beating West Brom 3-0 midweek while second-place Manchester United lost 2-0 at Tottenham. You’d have to lay $150 to make $1 on Man City winning the title, while a $1 bet would earn $100 if Manchester United somehow wins the league. Those are obviously long odds on Manchester United, but to put it in perspective, Leicester City was 1500/1 ($1 to make $1,500) to win the title back in 2015-16. Anything is possible.
The marquee matchup this weekend is on Super Bowl Sunday with Liverpool hosting Tottenham (11:30 am ET), and I’ve actually got a cross-sport prop bet available. I expect this match to be much more intense and physical than their previous meeting this season (a 4-1 Tottenham thrashing), so we should see at least a few yellow cards being handed out. In terms of the betting market, sportsbooks have reported differing action– at Bookmaker, more than 70% of tickets have come in on Liverpool (+105), but at other offshore books the action has been very heavy on Tottenham. Because of so much support for Tottenham around the market, their odds have moved from +280 to +255 since opening. At this point I don’t think there’s much value in the line, so I’ll be laying off this match and hoping for yellow cards galore.
The first value play for the weekend will be on the West Ham/Brighton match (Saturday 10 am ET). Just like Tuesday, we’ve seen odds move away from West Ham despite the majority of bettors taking them to win. After opening +202 at Pinnacle, West Ham are all the way up to +266, meaning their implied probability to win fell from 33% to 27%. Injuries have certainly taken a toll on them more than other squads, but I wouldn’t completely count them out this weekend. This match has all the necessary ingredients lined up for a draw: short moneylines, low total of 2 goals, juice on the Under, and lopsided betting on one side. As I mentioned last week, this betting system on draws with low totals has earned a 41.7% ROI over the last 5+ years. Go with the West Ham/Brighton Draw at +212 odds.
Shifting gears down the Premier League table, the next value play involves two clubs in the relegation zone desperately needing points: West Brom vs. Southampton (Saturday 10 am ET). Public bettors have been heavy on road dogs Southampton (46%) but the line has moved away from them from +181 to +220. There’s also been considerable action on the draw (36% of bets), so I’m completely fading the public here. Despite losing 3-0 at Man City on Wednesday, I still like what I’ve seen from West Brom over the last month. Their biggest issue all season has been scoring goals (19 total in 25 matches) but they recently acquired Daniel Sturridge to bolster their attack, and they should get many more chances vs. Southampton than they did at Man City. With just 18% of the moneyline tickets, I’m going contrarian and taking West Brom +157 to win outright.
The last value play will be a three-team moneyline parlay, something I rarely do during the season. However, when you can find contrarian value on big favorites it’s worth it, especially when the lines are moving in your favor. For this weekend there are three big favorites getting 33% of bets or less:
Manchester United -591 vs. Huddersfield (Saturday 10 am ET)
Arsenal -294 vs. Everton (Saturday 12:30 pm ET)
Chelsea -153 at Watford (Monday 3 pm ET)
All three of these big favorites actually lost midweek and will be looking to bounceback in a big way. I love Manchester United and Arsenal to take care of business at home, and Chelsea should be able to expose a Watford team who have only earned 13 points in 12 home matches. If you parlay the three favorites together, you’ll get a payout around +160.
Most Lopsided Moneyline Tickets Around the Market
67% on Bournemouth (-106) vs. Stoke City
66% on Crystal Palace (+100) vs. Newcastle
57% on Everton (+931) at Arsenal
Biggest Line Moves Since Opening
West Brom (+187 to +157) vs. Southampton
Tottenham (+280 to +255) at Liverpool
Watford/Chelsea Draw (+350 to +305)
Swansea (+539 to +385) at Leicester City
Value Plays (30-32 season record, +31.41 units, 51% ROI)
West Ham/Brighton Draw +212
West Brom (+157) vs. Southampton
Man Utd/Arsenal/Chelsea parlay (+160)
As always, you can track all the latest Premier League line moves, betting percentages, market data and more with a Sports Insights Pro membership.