Paris Saint-Germain (4-1) and Athletic Bilbao (1-3-1) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EST at San Mames Stadium in Bilbao.
PSG is favored at a -175 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-133o / -100u) goals.
Let's get into my PSG vs. Athletic prediction.
PSG vs. Athletic Prediction, Pick
Pick: PSG -1
My PSG vs. Athletic best bet is PSG -1.
Paris Saint-Germain enters this match as a justifiable favorite. The French club has been on a historic run in 2025, setting a new Champions League record with 13 wins in a single calendar year. Their offense has been the story of the tournament, scoring an incredible 51 goals during that span and averaging 3.8 goals per contest in the current league phase. That production is the highest in the competition.
While PSG has shown some defensive vulnerabilities, conceding in four of their five Champions League matches, their attack more than compensates. This high-powered offense is the primary reason to back them to win by a comfortable margin. They simply overwhelm their opponents.
In contrast, Athletic Bilbao has found it difficult to compete at this level. The Spanish club has managed just a single victory through five matches and has scored a total of only four goals. When faced with top-tier opposition in this tournament, Bilbao has consistently failed to cover the spread. A match against the competition's most potent offense presents a massive challenge. PSG’s trend is to outscore opponents regardless of their own defensive performance, which makes the -1.0 spread a solid value play.
PSG vs. Athletic Odds
| PSG Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -190 | 2.5 -133o / -100u | -175 |
| Athletic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +135 | 2.5 -133o / -100u | +460 |
PSG vs. Athletic Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| PSG | Draw | Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| 57.8% | 22% | 20.2% |
Projected Total Goals
| PSG | Total Goals | Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| 1.83 | 2.80 | 0.96 |
PSG vs. Athletic Betting Analysis
The statistical matchup heavily favors the visitors. PSG dominates possession in their games, averaging 66% of the ball, a stark contrast to Athletic Bilbao’s 47%. This control allows Luis Enrique’s team to generate a massive volume of scoring opportunities. PSG averages 20.4 shots per game, which has translated into 19 goals so far. For an Athletic Bilbao defense that concedes more goals per game than the competition average, this relentless pressure will be difficult to contain for 90 minutes.
Even with Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele potentially absent, PSG’s forward line remains formidable. The likes of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Bradley Barcola provide constant movement and an exceptional work rate that creates matchup problems all over the field.
Historically, these two clubs have met twice, with each team winning their respective home game back in the 2011-12 season. However, recent history tells a different story. PSG has an excellent record against Spanish opposition, with eight wins and just three losses in their last 13 European encounters. More importantly, they have won their last three Champions League away matches on Spanish soil. Athletic Bilbao, meanwhile, has won only two of its last ten European matches against teams from France. The data points toward another strong performance from the Parisian powerhouse.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your PSG vs Athletic Bilbao picks.
