The 2026 World Cup groups are set, and the tournament is beginning to take shape ahead of its June 11 kickoff. The United States, Mexico, and Canada will host 140 matches as 48 national teams chase the trophy — and a place in history.
The draw shifted the odds for several top contenders, including multiple former champions hoping to add another star. It also reinforced the possibility that a few outsiders could deliver a major surprise.
Polymarket, a marketplace that blends traditional financial mechanisms with cutting-edge prediction systems, allows users to predict who will win the 2026 World Cup. So, let's take a look at some of those predictions and try to figure out who will win the World Cup.
2026 FIFA World Cup Odds
Odds are via Polymarket and update every hour.
Spain enters the tournament as the clear favorite — and that shouldn’t shock anyone. Ranked No. 1 in the world, the reigning European champions and runners-up in the most recent Nations League are aiming for the second World Cup title in their history.
The emergence of young star Lamine Yamal has strengthened an already loaded squad. Their group includes Uruguay as the toughest opponent, along with two theoretically accessible rivals: Saudi Arabia and debutant Cape Verde.
Just behind Spain are England and France. The Three Lions boast a talented roster, as they have in past tournaments, but have suffered disappointment after disappointment. They will arrive at this World Cup exactly 60 years after lifting their only title as hosts in 1966.
France’s story is the opposite. After decades of inconsistency, they’ve flourished in recent years. Led by Kylian Mbappé, Les Bleus will chase a third world championship after titles in 1998 and 2018 — and after finishing as runners-up in Qatar.
That final, of course, was lost to Argentina. Lionel Messi's team is looking to repeat their 2022 triumph. This will be Messi’s last World Cup, and the draw was kind to them, placing Argentina alongside Algeria, Australia, and debutant Jordan.
Portugal is also looming in what will be Cristiano Ronaldo’s last dance. Winning the most recent Nations League revived hopes of a first-ever World Cup title.
A South American giant, Brazil, comes in slightly lower. The winningest national team in history will begin a new era under Carlo Ancelotti, who was hired to steady the situation after years of poor results and uninspired play — and to push for a record sixth star.
Where is Germany, the four-time world champion? They’re further down as they are in the midst of a major overhaul led by a younger generation, including already-established standouts like Florian Wirtz (Liverpool) and Nick Woltemade (Newcastle).
Every World Cup produces its share of Cinderella stories and potential shock contenders; Norway stands out as the Nordics are experiencing the strongest generation in their history, powered by the attacking brilliance of Erling Haaland (Manchester City), Martin Odegaard (Arsenal), and Alexander Sorloth (Atlético Madrid).
The Netherlands is also chasing its first-ever World Cup, while Italy carries a surprisingly high 2% chance — especially notable since they haven’t even secured qualification yet.
Others in the mix at 2% include Colombia, Belgium, Morocco, Japan, and Uruguay.
Among the three host nations, the United States is best positioned with a 2% chance, while Mexico and Canada sit at 1%. That 1% tier also includes Croatia, a former runner-up and two-time third-place finisher.
