Manchester City (3-1-1) and Real Madrid (4-1) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EST at Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid, Spain.
Man City is favored ($0.43), with the over/under set at 3.5 total goals.
Let's get into my Man City vs. Real Madrid prediction.
Man City vs. Real Madrid Prediction
Pick:Manchester City to Win
My Real Madrid vs. Man City best bet is for Manchester City to win.
Man City vs. Real Madrid Odds
Man City vs. Real Madrid Pick
Pick:Manchester City to Win
The odds suggest this will be a tightly contested affair between two of the Champions League’s most successful clubs in recent years. However, not being the favourites at the Santiago Bernabéu is rare for Real Madrid.
Possession was almost evenly split when Real hosted Manchester City in this competition last season, with Pep Guardiola’s side having the ball 52% of the time. Since Xabi Alonso took charge, Los Blancos have been slightly more aggressive in pressing, with a lower PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) in La Liga this season than in the last.
Although Real Madrid’s recent results have been poor, they still have the quality to hurt Manchester City. Kylian Mbappe has scored nine goals in the Champions League this season. His pace, exceptional dribbling ability, and eye for goal could prevent the Manchester City defense from pushing too high up the pitch, making it impossible to keep the home side penned in.
Manchester City have an attacking star of their own in Erling Haaland. The Norwegian has scored five goals in this competition and also possesses the physical attributes needed to stretch the opposition defense. This could turn into a battle between two of the world’s best attackers.
Real Madrid have averaged 19.8 shots per game in the league phase; only PSG has had more. Manchester City ranks fifth for shots in the Champions League, with an average of 17.6 per game. With both teams keen to let fly, the goalkeepers are set for a busy 90 minutes.
In terms of form, Real Madrid, by their standards, have underwhelmed. Alonso is facing criticism for the current results, while Real Madrid has won just once in their past five LaLiga fixtures (W1/D3/L1). Dropping points against Celta Vigo, Girona, Elche and Rayo Vallecano in recent weeks is likely seen as unacceptable to both those in the boardroom and the supporters lining the Bernabeu’s concourses.
A 0-2 home defeat against Celta Vigo just days ago has now placed even more importance on the upcoming Champions League fixture versus Manchester City. Not only that, but Real Madrid conceded three goals to Olympiacos in Greece on matchday five. Los Blancos conceded 1.69 xGA (expected goals against) and four big chances. If the same opportunities are allowed to Guardiola’s Manchester City, they will likely take advantage.
Unfortunately for Alonso, defensive absentees, compounded by Eder Militao’s 24th-minute substitution on the weekend, have hampered defensive performance. The left side of Real Madrid’s back four included Alvaro Carreras in central defense and Fran Garcia at left-back. The latter is Real Madrid’s third-choice left-back, playing alongside the back-up left-back, Carreras, in an unfamiliar position.
Considering the form of Erling Haaland, Phil Foden, and Jeremy Doku in the Manchester City squad, this will be a challenging fixture to approach for Alonso and company.
A rotated Manchester City 11 fell to defeat at home to Bayer Leverkusen on matchday five in the Champions League. The Citizens kicked off as heavy favourites, with the market failing to predict that Guardiola would rest and rotate the majority of his starting lineup from previous games.
Since that defeat, Manchester City have pieced together victories over Leeds, Fulham, and Sunderland, three teams they should be dispatching with ease. However, two goals conceded against Leeds (3-2) and four away at Fulham (4-5) might indicate the kind of game we have in store on Wednesday.
City doesn’t look to be at its defensive best, though its forwards continue to impress. If we couple Man City and Real Madrid’s defensive frailties with the likes of Mbappe and Haaland in forward areas, all signs start to point to a goal-laden fixture.
Interestingly, Real Madrid vs Man City is a fixture that typically produces goals. Seven of the past 10 meetings between the two clubs have featured three or more goals. The bookmakers have set the Asian goal line at over/under 3.25, indicating that three or more goals are expected.
Man City vs. Real Madrid Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Man City | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 31.0% | 22.0% | 47.0% |
Projected Total Goals
| Man City | Total Goals | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 1.43 | 3.29 | 1.85 |
