Premier League Week 28 Preview and Picks

Premier League Week 28 Preview and Picks article feature image

The Premier League is back in action after a brief hiatus for FA Cup matches, and we’ve got a huge matchup on Sunday between Chelsea and Manchester United (9:05 a.m. ET). Manchester City/Arsenal will play their regularly scheduled Premier League match later in the week on Thursday as these teams will actually meet in the EFL Cup Final on Sunday morning (11:30 a.m. ET).

With eight matches on the slate for the weekend, we’ve picked out three value plays, including Chelsea/Manchester United.

Here’s a look at the most recent results, season trends, biggest payouts and title odds along with value plays and market analysis for Week 28.

Week 27 Results:
Home 8 of 10 (+10.85 units)
Away 1 of 10 (-8.28 units)
Draw 1 of 10 (-6.82 units)

Another miserable week for road teams, winning just one of the 10 matches for -8.28 units. The lone victory was Liverpool (-139) at Southampton.

Season Results:
Home 123 of 270 (+12.22 units)
Away 73 of 270 (-55.84 units)
Draw 74 of 270 (+24.34 units)

Home teams are on a great run the last few weeks and are now profitable (+12.22 units) on the season. Draws had a rough Week 27, but are still a very healthy +24.34 units on the season.

Season’s Biggest Payouts:
Burnley (+1125) at Chelsea in Week 1
Swansea (+1078) vs. Liverpool in Week 24
Bournemouth (+911) at Chelsea in Week 25
Huddersfield (+875) vs. Man Utd in Week 9
Crystal Palace (+695) vs. Chelsea in Week 8

Five of the top 9 Premier League payouts have been outright wins against Chelsea: Burnley +1125, Bournemouth +911, Crystal Palace +695, West Ham +655, Watford +595.

Fading Chelsea on the moneyline this year has gone 6-21 for +20.5 units earned.

Title Odds via 5Dimes:
Manchester City -50000 (72 points)
Manchester United +17500 (56 points)
Liverpool +25000 (54 points)
Tottenham +25000 (52 points)
Chelsea +50000 (53 points)

Manchester United were upset by Newcastle last matchweek which essentially puts the title race to bed. Bettors would need to lay $500 to make $1 on Man City winning the EPL.

Relegation Odds via 5Dimes:
West Brom -275 (20 points)
Stoke -120 (25 points)
Huddersfield -110 (27 points)
Swansea +225 (27 points)
Brighton +280 (28 points)
Crystal Palace +325 (27 points)
Newcastle +400 (28 points)
Southampton +425 (26 points)

Another loss for West Brom keeps them in the cellar of the EPL and destined to be relegated at -275 odds. However, two other clubs will join them and nearly half the league is still fighting to stay in the top division. Since so many clubs are in a battle to stay in the Premier League, every match is critical for survival.

Below, I’ve picked out a couple value plays involving the lower half of the league along with a look at the top matchups of Chelsea/Manchester United and Arsenal/Manchester City.

Swansea at Brighton (Saturday 10 a.m. ET)
Swansea have been heartbreakers for me by continuing to win matches and crawling out of the relegation zone. On Saturday the Swans travel to Brighton as sizable underdogs with a very low game total of 2 goals (u-113). Despite the public willing to take Swansea (30% of moneyline bets), we’ve seen their odds get worse from +295 to +340. Nearly 60% of public bettors have taken Brighton to get the victory at home and the odds have moved in that direction, from +120 to +107.

Lopsided public action on both sides is exactly what I was hoping to see for this match since I was leaning draw, and fading the public only helps my decision. Historically, draws with low totals of 2 goals have been successful every season that we’ve tracked data, including this year (9-11 record, +8.15 units). When goals aren’t expected, the likelihood of a draw increases, and I don’t see this game ending any higher than 1-1. Both teams need points, and I can’t see Swansea getting another victory. The draw is available at +222 odds and that’s where I’m putting my money.

Southampton at Burnley (Saturday 10 a.m. ET)
My rationale for taking the Southampton/Burnley Draw at +210 is the same as Swansea/Brighton– a very low total of 2 goals and a short draw line of +210. Southampton, much like Swansea and Brighton, desperately need to rack up points through the end of the season in order to stay in the EPL. Burnley, on the other hand, have been quite surprising this year and find themselves on 36 points, in seventh position in the league ahead of squads like Leicester City and Everton.

On paper this seems like a win for Burnley, but the odds and line movement suggest otherwise. Southampton have moved from +200 to +172 since opening despite getting just 20% of betting tickets at Burnley. It’s also critical to look at how oddsmakers view Southampton– despite currently stuck in the relegation zone, seven other clubs have shorter odds to be relegated. The market believes that Southampton finds a way out of relegation, and bettors agree it starts this weekend. While I can’t hop on board that Southampton will get the victory on Saturday, they have enough talent to grab a point on the road, so the draw at +210 is where I’m going.

Chelsea at Manchester United (Sunday 9:05 a.m. ET)
Public bettors and line movement have both been heavily toward Chelsea since opening, moving their odds from +307 to +245. A few factors can explain the love for Chelsea:

1) They just played a great 1-1 draw against Barcelona in Champions League action.
2) Man United just played a disappointing 0-0 draw at Sevilla in Champions League action.
3) +250 to +300 is a great price for Chelsea, who are arguably playing better than United over the last couple weeks.

This match will take the most action of the weekend and the majority of public bettors will want to take a side: either Chelsea at +245 odds, or Man United at +134 odds. At the time of publication, Chelsea were receiving 50% of tickets while Man United have attracted 38%. That means only 12% of tickets are taking the draw at +230 odds but that’s where I see this match finishing. Despite both clubs playing the fewest number of draws this season (five apiece), I can’t see this match ending in anything but a draw. You also get to fade the public by taking the draw, and neither team would complain about grabbing a point in this one.

Manchester City at Arsenal (Thursday 2:45 pm ET)
While I don’t have any value play on this match, I couldn’t ignore it completely. Manchester City are small -111 favorites to win at The Emirates, with Arsenal at +278 and the draw at +317. Early betting percentages have been evenly spread out with 55% on City, 23% on Arsenal, and 22% on Draw. This match will be very interesting since it’ll be the second time in four days that the teams meet– they’ll play in the EFL Cup Final on Sunday morning, a match that has greater significance than their Premier League clash. It’s very possible that Man City will decide to play an inferior lineup by the time Thursday rolls around and we could see these odds shift considerably. At +278 odds, I would be leaning on the home side Arsenal to get the outright victory.

Most Lopsided Moneyline Tickets Around the Market
75% on Leicester City (-138)
67% on Bournemouth (+111)
63% on Brighton (+107)

Biggest Line Moves Since Opening
Southampton (+200 to +172) at Burnley
Brighton (+120 to +105) vs. Swansea
Chelsea (+307 to +254) at Manchester United

Value Plays (31-37 season record, +27.05 units), All plays risk 1 unit
Swansea/Brighton Draw (+222)
Southampton/Burnley Draw (+210)
Man United/Chelsea Draw (+230)

As always, you can track all the latest Premier League line moves, betting percentages, market data and more with a Sports Insights Pro membership.