Premier League Week 35 Betting Preview and Value Plays
Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images
A shock home loss by Manchester United to West Brom last weekend sealed the Premier League title for rivals Manchester City. West Brom closed +1700 on the moneyline to win at Old Trafford, the biggest upset in the EPL for more than six seasons.
Despite the title race now being officially over, there’s still plenty at stake down the stretch including Champions League bids, Europa League bids and relegation battles. We’ll also see personnel changes for many clubs, most notably Arsene Wenger leaving Arsenal after 22 seasons as manager.
I’ve previewed each of the following six matches on the slate to find four value plays.
- Liverpool at West Brom (Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)
- Crystal Palace at Watford (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)
- West Ham at Arsenal (Sunday, 8:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)
- Burnley at Stoke City (Sunday, 8:30 a.m. ET on PLP)
- Swansea at Manchester City (Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)
- Newcastle at Everton (Monday, 3 p.m. ET on NBC Sports)
Recent Results and Season Trends
Road teams are making a comeback toward the end of the season with the help of West Brom’s +1700 moneyline victory over Manchester United. Draws and home teams are still profitable overall this season.
Relegation Odds (via 5Dimes):
West Brom still aren’t officially relegated but it would take a miracle to climb out of the bottom. As a result, books aren’t offering odds. The clubs most likely to join them are Stoke City (-1000) and Southampton (-225), but I still think Swansea (+450) are a decent bet to be demoted.
Now on to the matches …
(All odds via Pinnacle at time of publication. All betting %’s are offshore market consensus. You can find the latest odds and betting %’s with a Sports Insights membership)
Liverpool at West Brom (Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Liverpool -191, West Brom +615, Draw +345
Can West Brom pull off back-to-back upsets by beating Liverpool on Saturday? The odds suggest it’s not likely, but bettors at Bookmaker seem to feel good about it with more than 40% of tickets on the home side. However, lopsided action is on Liverpool around the rest of the market, including 5Dimes, BetUS and Sportsbook.
It’d be unfair to say that Liverpool are completely looking past Saturday’s match and focusing solely on their Champions League semifinal clash with Roma. Jurgen Klopp will want his squad in-form as they prepare for Tuesday, but the sense of urgency just may not be there. For West Brom, playing at home after a big road win should give them some confidence so I like the low-risk value on West Brom +1 goals (+110).
Crystal Palace at Watford (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Crystal Palace +160, Watford +196, Draw +244
Crystal Palace have looked like a different squad over the last few weeks and another win would essentially ensure they’re staying in the Premier League next year. Watford are trending in the opposite direction and could find themselves level on points with their opponents if they lose. Sharp money has already sucked a lot of value out of this line, but Crystal Palace +160 is still a solid bet.
West Ham at Arsenal (Sunday, 8:30 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Arsenal -182, West Ham +528, Draw +365
Sunday’s match will be an emotional one for all Arsenal fans as manager Arsene Wenger recently announced he’ll be leaving the club at the end of the season. Wenger has defined Arsenal since arriving in 1996, leading the club to three Premier League titles and seven FA Cup titles among other countless accolades.
The Gunners are focused on winning the Europa League and may not put out their best starting XI on Sunday morning, which is why the line is short at -182. However, they’ve been dominant at home compared to a poor road record, and West Ham will not be able to keep them off the scoresheet. I expect the home fans to be engaged and for this line to rise until Sunday morning, so grab Arsenal -182 while it’s available.
Burnley at Stoke City (Sunday, 8:30 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Stoke +127, Burnley +265, Draw +229
Another dreaded Burnley match to look forward to, and a draw to like. Burnley have continued to outperform expectations, losing only four road matches all season as they seek a sixth-place finish in the league.
All the line movement has been toward Stoke City in this one, but public betting is relatively even across the board. With another low total of 2 goals, I’m once again taking the draw +229.
Swansea at Manchester City (Sunday, 11 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Man City -697, Swansea +2280, Draw +866
If Swansea were to win this match, it’d be the biggest upset in the Premier League that we’ve ever tracked. I’m still hoping for the Swans to be relegated so I’ll be cheering for a Man City win, but there’s no value in the line at -697 or the spread at -2/-2.5.
Newcastle at Everton (Monday, 3 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Everton +131, Newcastle +246, Draw +235
Both clubs currently sit in the top 10 of the league table with 11 wins and 14 losses apiece. After opening at Pinnacle, the line moved toward Newcastle to get a road result but there’s not a lot of public betting data yet. I’d expect tickets and money to continue to come in on Newcastle, winners of four consecutive matches.
Value Plays (34-59 season record, +10.98 units), All plays risk 1 unit
West Brom +1 goals (+110) vs. Liverpool
Crystal Palace (+160) at Watford
Arsenal (-182) vs. West Ham
Stoke/Burnley Draw (+229)
You can also follow me on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) for all the latest soccer news and updates.
Cover photo features Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger