Premier League Week 38 Betting Preview and Picks

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Mark Leech – Offside/Getty Images

The 2017-18 Premier League season is nearly over, and the final 10 matches will all be played simultaneously on Sunday at 10 a.m. ET.

Unfortunately there’s not a whole lot to decide on the last day. Manchester City have easily won the title and will look to hit the 100-point mark for the season against Southampton.

 

Chelsea could pass Liverpool for fourth place and a Champions League spot, but need the Reds (-500 moneyline) to lose at home to Brighton (+1500).

At the bottom of the table, Swansea City barely have a chance to stave off relegation and need to turn around a nine-goal differential between themselves and Southampton.

Nevertheless, there are some exciting betting opportunities on the slate. Based on our historical data from Bet Labs, bigger underdogs tend to do very well in the month of May when teams are winding down their seasons.

After examining the betting market for every match, I’ve found five value plays (+30.48 units, 29% ROI this season) worth wagering on, including:

  • Arsenal at Huddersfield Town
  • Leicester City at Tottenham
  • Manchester City at Southampton

2017-18 Season Trends

  • Draws have hit in just 26.7% of matches this season, but that’s good for +31.02 units.
  • Home teams have won at a 45.1% clip for +8.77 units on the year.
  • Road teams have struggled mightily, winning just 28.1% of matches for a horrible -59.74 units.

Five clubs still have a chance to go over the Season Point Total, including Leicester City and Tottenham who are matched up against one another.

The five clubs with the lowest preseason point totals have all gone over, and eight clubs have already clinched the under. Crystal Palace need just one point to go over, which is remarkable considering they didn’t score a goal in the first seven matches.

Now on to the final value plays for the 2017-18 season …

(All odds via Pinnacle as of Friday afternoon. All betting percentages are offshore market consensus. You can find the latest odds and public/sharp info with a Sports Insights membership.)

Arsenal at Huddersfield

Moneyline odds: Arsenal -167, Huddersfield +472, Draw +348

This will be the final match for Arsene Wenger as manager of Arsenal, and they’ll be looking to send him out on a high note. Unfortunately the Gunners have been atrocious on the road in 2018, losing seven straight league games including, 3-1, at Leicester City on Wednesday night. They’ll also be missing key players due to injury, including defender Laurent Koscielny and midfielder Mesut Ozil.

Despite the Gunners’ woes, the line has moved toward Arsenal since opening at -152. They’re now up to -167 at Pinnacle and -178 at Bookmaker while getting about only 50% of moneyline bets. Public bettors are liking Huddersfield (+472) to pull off an upset, but sharper money has shifted the odds toward Arsenal.

Huddersfield are officially safe from relegation after earning draws at Manchester City and Chelsea, so there’s no more desperation for points. However, public bettors believe they’ll finish the year strong with another result against a top team.

I just can’t pass up the chance to bet on Arsenal in Wenger’s last game, especially when it’s a bit of a contrarian play, so let’s go Gunners -167.

 

Chelsea at Newcastle

Moneyline odds: Chelsea -164, Newcastle +496, Draw +322

In order to sneak into a top-four spot, which would ensure a Champions League berth next season, Chelsea need to beat Newcastle and hope Liverpool lose to Brighton. All the action has been on Chelsea so far with the Blues’ odds increasing from -147 to -169 at Bookmaker.

However, it’s important to remember that they also have an FA Cup Final next Saturday against Manchester United, so I can’t see them taking too many risks in this one.

After four straight wins, Newcastle have now lost four straight, all by one-goal margins. They’ve been shut out in three of four, and managed to score only one goal in that span.

This is very much a “buy-low” scenario on Newcastle, and they fit into two profitable Bet Labs systems, both with historical ROIs of more than 60%. It’s always a good idea to shop around the market to get the best line possible, which right now is +550 on Newcastle (via BetUS). At anything +450 or higher, I love the value on Newcastle to pull off the home upset.

Manchester City at Southampton

Moneyline odds: Man City -239, Southampton +706, Draw +411

Manchester City are aiming for the first ever 100-point season, while Southampton basically need to avoid a blowout loss in order to stay in the Premier League. The line has moved in both directions depending on the sportsbook, and with a high total of 3 goals (o-125), this should be a fun last match of the year.

The price on Southampton to win at home is very tempting, especially considering they won’t just mail this one in. I’m also going with big underdogs Leicester City (+856) at Tottenham, and Watford (+690) at Manchester United, as they both ft the late-season Bet Labs system.


Value Plays (43-61 season record, +30.48 units, 29% ROI)

All plays risk 1 unit:

Arsenal (-167) at Huddersfield Town
Newcastle (+496) vs. Chelsea
Southampton (+706) vs. Manchester City
Leicester City (+856) at Tottenham
Watford (+690) at Manchester United

Next week I’ll be publishing a recap for the entire 2017-18 Premier League season, in case you missed anything.

You can also follow me on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) for all the latest soccer news and updates.

Cover photo features Arsenal forward Alexandre Lacazette

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